A bright, shiny new thread for crisp fall days, the last few days of the regular season, and all the postseason action.
Link to the last page of the September thread.
I mentioned this last month, but I am eagerly waiting to see if the Astros can beat the win total of their NY-Penn League affiliate, the Tri-City Valley Cats. The Valley Cats won 51 games during the regular season and 3 more during the playoffs–that’s one more than the Astros have to date.
It should of course be pointed out that Valley Cats’ season began in the third week of June and ended September 13. So the numbers of games played are not QUITE comparable.
And I love the idea that the Astros and Cubs might play each other with each team having 100 losses in hand. Good stuff.
So, what’s still up for grabs in the regular season?
In the NL, there is still unfortunately some question about whether the Nats will win the NL East. For the Braves to win the division, the Nats would have to lose their last 3, the Braves would have to win their last 3, and the Braves would have to beat the Nats in a 1-game playoff on Thursday. (The loser would then have to play in the wild-card game on Friday.) But that’s hardly outside the realm of possibility.
And the Cards lead the Dodgers by 2 games for the last wild card spot with 3 to go.
In the AL, the Rangers, O’s, and Yanks are all into the postseason. The O’s and Yanks will continue dueling for the AL East crown over the next 3 days, and a 1-game playoff on Thursday if they are still tied three days from now. The Tigers lead the White Sox in the fight for the AL Central crown, and the A’s lead the fight for the last wildcard.
The A’s are pretty much at the center of the remaining uncertainty, outside of the AL Central. They could overtake the Rangers for the AL West lead, they could lose out and be caught by the Angels or Rays, and of course they (or the Rangers if the A’s win out) may finish either ahead or behind the second-place team in the AL East, whichever team that turns out to be, for the privilege of hosting the AL wild card game on Friday.
It’ll be an interesting few days.
The first Triple Crown won in 45 years.
Miguel Cabrera up two points on Mauer in BA, tied with Hamilton on HRs, and 11 RBI up on Hamilton.
A’s fan checking in. 2 games back with 3 to go against Texas, I really hope we can pull off a sweep. I am not excited about a do-or-die wildcard game for us - we just don’t have a starting pitcher that I feel comfortable running out there right now for all or nothing. Even if Anderson comes back for the wildcard game I don’t know what to expect from him.
That said, this has been one of my favorite A’s seasons in the 25+ years I have been following this team. Lots of heart, great group of young players, and a memorable hook that I am sure everyone else hates. It has been a great ride. I don’t think they will go far in the playoffs - they rely too much on home runs now and strike out too much. They don’t manufacture runs at all. But it has been a blast!
If the A’s can get past the play-in game (or win the division outright) I actually think they’re as good a bet as any.
While there’s no perfect science to predicting who will win in the playoffs, historically, teams with better pitching are a bit likelier to win playoff series than with better hitting. It’s probably the best thing you can go by. Since Oakland will have the best pitching/defense in the AL playoffs - Tampa Bay is better but looks like they made their run too late - why not bet on the A’s?
Similarly, I like the Reds in the NL. They have allowed fewer runs than any other NL club; their team ERA_ is 126, which is absolutely sensational.
Would I bet a lot of money on either? Nah, but if you put a gun to my head and made me bet a hundred bucks on someone (after the wild card play-in) I’d bet on the team that prevents runs the best.
The A’s have had great pitching all year, but they seem to be hitting a wall - hey when you are running 5 rookies day in and day out, this will happen in September/October. Here’s the last few starts for the starting 5 (Blackley only had 2 because he took over when Mccarthy caught a line drive with his head):
Milone (last 3 starts) - 15.1 IP, 27 baserunners, 5 earned runs
Straily (last 3 starts) - 15.2 IP, 24 baserunners, 8 earned runs
Blackley (last 2 starts) - 3 IP, 13 baserunners, 8 earned runs
Parker (last 3 starts) - 21 IP, 22 baserunners, 6 earned runs
Griffin (last 3 starts) - 14.2 IP, 25 baserunners, 10 earned runs
Obviously Parker has been the most consistent recently, but he had a rough stretch in July/August. The bullpen has been amazing, but they have had to put in a lot of innings recently.
Believe me, nobody would be happier to be wrong here than me, but when the playoffs come around & runs get harder to come by, I am just not sure they have the horses.
Only 45 minutes until the last series on the 2012 season. Lots of intrigue left. Go Yankees!
Oh geez, this is the truth HoboStew. I never thought my love of Henderson, Murphy, and Armas would be surpassed but… boy howdy I like these guys. Night after night, their enthusiasm for the game and each other is totally and completely infectious. Seeing Inge and McCarthy back in the dugout has been awesome too. I keep waiting for them to crumble under the pressure of these games but… so far, so good.
I’ve got tickets for Friday if they end up the #1 wildcard seed (I hope I didn’t just jinx them, haha).
In the NL, I’m rooting for the intrigue to be over by the end of the evening.
In the AL, there’s plenty of intrigue left whichever way things happen tonight, but I’m rooting for the alphabet teams - the A’s and O’s.
Suppose the Reds and Nats finish in a 2-way tie for best record in the league. How do they decide which one plays the Giants, and which one plays the wildcard game winner? My google-fu is weak tonight.
First tiebreaker is season series which the Nats own 5-2 so they would be the #1 seed.
From here:
As Ol’Gaffer says, The Nationals win the tiebreaker; they lead the season series 5-2.
I’m not sure these Astros could beat the Tri-City Valley Cats, period.
That’s a heckuva way to start. See ya, Clay.
Just to clarify, the tiebreaker system applies only to seeding, e.g. who ends up with home field advantage in the LDS or LCS.
For a position in the LDS or LCS - including, in theory, the question of whether a team wins a division or gets one of the two wild card spots - the matter must be decided on the field.
Nats need to stop fucking around and close this thing out already. You don’t want to go into your first post season losing your way in
OK, this is what I couldn’t find anywhere: which situations were decided on the field, and which by tiebreakers.
Meanwhile, the Braves lost, so the Nats are the NL East champs. Would have been nice to clinch via a win, but we’ll take what we can get.
Nats clinch
If Miguel Cabrera wins the Triple Crown it’s virtually certain he’ll win the MVP Award.
But I’d still vote for Mike Trout.