I had a meeting end half an hour early this afternoon, so I had some free time:
The single Wildcard format was in use from 1995-2010
That was 17 seasons, so 34 races.
16 times, the Wildcard team had the worst, or tied for the worst, record of the four teams in the league playoffs.
10 times, the Wildcard had the third best record of the playoff teams.
2000 - AL
Chi White Sox 95-67
Oakland 91-70
#WC# Seattle 91-71
NY Yankees 87-74
2002 - AL
NY Yankees 103-58
Oakland 103-59
#WC# Anaheim 99-63
Minnesota 94-67
2003 - AL
NY Yankees 101-61
Oakland 96-66
#WC# Boston 95-67
Minnesota 90-72
2003 - NL
Atlanta 101-61
San Francisco 100-61
#WC# Florida 91-71
Chi Cubs 88-74
2005 - NL
St Louis 100-62
Atlanta 90-72
#WC# Houston 89-73
San Diego 82-80
2006 - AL
NY Yankees 97-65
Minnesota 96-66
#WC# Detroit 95-67
Oakland 93-69
2006 - NL
NY Mets 97-65
San Diego 88-74
#WC# LA Dodgers 88-74
St Louis 83-78
2008 - NL
Chi Cubs 97-64
Philadelphia 92-70
#WC# Milwaukee 90-72
LA Dodgers 84-78
2009 - AL
NY Yankees 103-59
LA Angels 97-65
#WC# Boston 95-67
Minnesota 87-76
2009 - NL
LA Dodgers 95-67
Philadelphia 93-69
#WC# Colorado 92-70
St Louis 91-71
8 times, the Wildcard team had the second best record in the league.
1997 - AL
Baltimore 98-64
#WC# NY Yankees 96-66
Seattle 90-72
Cleveland 86-75
1997 - NL
Atlanta 101-61
#WC# Florida 92-70
San Francisco 90-72
Houston 84-78
1998 - AL
NY Yankees 114-48
#WC# Boston 92-70
Cleveland 89-73
Texas 88-74
2001 - AL
Seattle 116-46
#WC# Oakland 102-60
NY Yankees 95-65
Cleveland 91-71
2001 - NL
Houston 93-69
#WC# St Louis 93-69
Arizona 92-70
Atlanta 88-74
2004 - AL
NY Yankees 101-61
#WC# Boston 98-64
Minnesota 92-70
Anaheim 92-70
2007 - NL
Arizona 90-72
#WC# Colorado 90-73
Philadelphia 89-73
Chi Cubs 85-77
2010 - AL
Tampa Bay 96-66
#WC# NY Yankees 95-67
Minnesota 94-68
Texas 90-72
So the Wildcard team had a better record than one of the Division winners 53% of the time, and had a better record than 2 of the Division winners 24% of the time. I’m not sure what argument that supports, but there are the numbers…
And how about those 2001 Oakland As? They won 102 games…and finished 14 games out of first place!