The 2004 general election is only 18 months away. Does anyone have any predictions as to Senators they find in danger?
(Personally, I pick Fitzgerald, Edwards, and Schumer as most vulnerable)
Do you have a list of the Senators who are up for re-election in 2004?
Not in paper, but, in my head, I know that Boxer, Murray, Wyden, Daschle, Fitzgerald, Schumer, Edwards, Graham, and Feingold are up.
Here’s the list:
http://www.senate.gov/general/contact_information/senators_cfm.cfm?Class=3
IIRC, Bayh and Miller will retire. (I haven’t heard about Hollings retiring, but that’s possible.) Murkowski had to run anyway because she was appointed. There’s been some recent questions about Nickles running again.
Those who are vulnerable could include: Kit Bond, Tom Daschle, Peter Fitzgerald, and Harry Reid. Boxer might be added to that list if the California GOP wasn’t in such dire straits. Schumer is another possible add.
The leading non-favorite at this time has got to be Peter Fitzgerald. A poll came out in February saying that only 27 percent of his constituents thought he’d be re-elected. Miller’s seat is almost certain to which to the R’s (as if it would make a big difference.)
Why Edwards? As near as I know, he’s pretty popular at home. Unless he resigns in order to make a presidential run, I fully expect him to be re-elected.
Daniel
The open election to replace Miller is, by all accounts, a pickup for the Republicans no matter who runs. Miller refuses to endorse any Democrat for the position, because all of his breed of donkeys have since grown trunks.
Bob Graham is almost certainly screwed out of a Senatorial reelection in Florida if he enjoys any success at all in the Presidential primaries. He’ll blow every penny he has on that, and if he fails to get the nomination I think he’ll have a hard time matching whoever his opponent is in the… confused… state which elected Katherine Harris to Congress last year.
There is an intraparty matchup in Pennsylvania between Arlen Specter and Patrick Toomey which may raise some alarms. The two Republicans could wind up blowing their wads against each other instead of whoever the Dems select to run against the winner. Toomey, by the way, is almost guaranteed to lose. Only two incumbent Senators have lost a primary since 1992.
For all his glamor and power, Tom Daschle is going to have to run a hell of a campaign next year. John Thune, who gave up his seat in the House and lost to Tim Johnson for the junior Senate seat last year, is owned a HUGE favor by the RNC, and if he decides to run you can expect him to be the recipient of the President’s personal coat-tail ride as well as unlimited campaign support from the RNC. If Thune doesn’t bite, I wouldn’t be surprised if former Governor and current Representative At Large Bill Janklow takes a crack at Daschle.
Patty Murray was voted Dumbest Senator in a poll of Senate aides. She made some dumb comments a few months ago that will be used against her in the campaign.
All but one of these are Ds. No agenda here, is there? Just a simple inquiry, right? :dubious:
Personally, I think it’s too soon to tell. The President’s coat-tail was surprisingly strong in 2002, and a lot can happen between now and then.
Sofa King, let me see if I get this right. John Thune, who couldn’t defeat a junior Senator during the Republican sweep in 2002 with a whole lot of RNC backing, will now be able to beat the Senate Minority Leader? Even assuming that the RNC is able to give as much support as they did in 2002 (which is doubtful, since they have a presidential campaign to run), how is this at all likely?
Sho, nuff, ShoNuff. Johnson won by the slimmest of margins by developing a political force which had heretofore been largely ignored by both parties–the large American Indian population on the various reservations there in the state.
I think the Republicans are unlikely to allow that to happen again. They’ve already begun their intimidation campaign by cutting funding to a number of Dakota water projects, one of which has now been completed to the point where virtually all the non-Indians are served, but which is only half complete. I fully expect other “initiatives” to “engage” the Indian vote will rear their ugly heads both in next year’s election-year budget and in other venues.
And yes, from my political armchair, Democrat Senators are in even worse shape in this election cycle than they were last time. If they can’t bring home the bacon, they’re gonna be sent packing.
The concensus I’ve heard is that Patty Murray, Peter Fitzgerald, Bill Nelson and Blanche Lincoln are all pretty vulnerable. You could add Feingold and Reid to that list based solely on the results of thier last election (Reid won by less than 500 votes.) Reid does have the benefit of being the Senate’s No. 2 Democrat, though.
Bond might be vulnerable because, well, that’s the price you pay for being a statewide candidate in Missouri.
I’ve heard nothing to indicate that Bayh is planning on retiring. He’s already said he won’t run for governor, and his name, thanks to his father, carries a lot of weight back home. Plus, he’s been on the Democratic Veep short list practically since he became a senator. If anything pulls him out of the Senate, that’s what it’ll be.
No agenda. As stated in the post, I forgot a lot of names. (Great, I can’t find the list I wrote of all the incumbents!)
Toomey doesn’t have much of a chance. Spector’s style of politics (honed over years of involvment in Philadelphia politics) will help, as will the fact that virtually no one of importance in Pennsylvania is endorsement Toomey.
Bill Nelson isn’t up for re-election in 2004. He’s up in 2006.
Actually, I think the Dems might win in Georgia. It appears that the Reps there have decided on moderate Rep. Johnny Isakson was the nominee. If the Dems nominee the right moderate-to-conservative candidate (of which there are still quite a few in state government), they could win as a result of the large number of voters in Georgia that won’t vote for moderate Reps.
Murray could go down, but the Reps don’t have that many people that they could run statewide. (The Rep secretary of state, Sam Reed, might pull it off.)
Are you sure about Kit Bond? Nothing I’ve seen suggests weakness.
In Florida, I wouldn’t be suprised if Graham retires (especially if his campaign for President collaspes).
I expect Edwards to go down because of a trend in North Carolina politics. Every 6 years, the incumbent of the Senate seat he holds has been dumped.