My visit to the Microsoft store made me worry a bit more for Apple

In My Humble Opinion
1

To those who don’t really want to read the post: I’m not saying Microsoft is doing great!

The Apple store in the local high-end mall (Fashion Mall, aka Keystone) is typically very crowded; the Microsoft store is not. In fact, I wonder if the Microsoft store is even doing enough business to stay in business.

But this post isn’t about whether Microsoft is doing better than Apple, or even whether Microsoft’s products are better than Apple’s. It’s about this: There are scary-good products out there that threaten everything Apple does. And they are coming from a ton of different companies. Microsoft is just one of them.

To wit, the Surface Pro “tablet” is really a killer laptop for an unbelievable price. Touch screen, removable keyboard, thin, light, runs any Windows software. I didn’t check out the tech specs, but I assume they are at least pretty good. And then there were other laptops and whatnot in there for insanely low prices.

Oh, and the store had tablets that looked excellent at crazy-low prices that go head-to-head aginst the iPad as well. They look just as cool, too.

The last computer I got was a MacBook Pro in 2012. I have a key client who wants me to be on a Mac for particular software reasons (which I think are probably a lot less relevant now than they used to be). But if I were getting a laptop today, I would be sorely pressed to skip the several-grand MacBook and just get a Surface Pro–or hell, there have to be many more options out there of which I am not yet aware.

Apple’s latest innovation is the… iWatch. Uh huh. Fanfares. Fireworks. Confetti. Rejoicing in the streets. NOT.

It is a dangerous world out there for tech as far as any company is concerned. I heard a couple months ago that Samsung has lost a shitton of market share to Xiaomi, a Chinese company making inexpensive–but apparently pretty excellent–Android phones. It’s one thing for things to become commodities. But the masses are blessed, and companies cursed, with the tech commodities really being quite outstanding.

The Surface Pro is just another bullet flying in Apple’s direction, but it’s a damn fine-looking bullet. Where does Apple retain dominance in technology and quality at this point? I don’t see a single category left.

(By the way, I come at this from the perspective of a Mac who feels kicked out of the Mac world by some mysterious process I don’t understand. I own an expensive MacBook Pro but still don’t feel included. I walk by the Apple store, and I don’t feel invited in. I’m not sure why. Maybe some of you will have insights into that.)

2

Rat’s Rule for Overtaking the Lead in a Market: Your product does not just need to be better than the market leader, it must either be revolutionary, cheaper and cross-compatible, or attached to the product of a different market leader.

The problem isn’t just hardware. The selection of apps for iDevices is huge. Android is doing almost as well. Microsoft though, all the available applications are built, designed, and priced for desktop usage. Tablet/mobile apps for Microsoft devices are non-existant.

3

Apple is DOOMED! :eek:

Actually, I’ve never felt part of the somewhat weird scene inside Apple stores either. I am fortunate to be a dinosaur permitted to graze there, while the sleeker, more evolved mammals thrive all around me. :slight_smile:

4

I would rename the rule, "Rat’s Rule for Overtaking the Lead in a Market in a Reasonably Short Amount of Time."

Apple isn’t the market leader in computers, of course. It isn’t trying to be. It’s already had mucho market share taken away in smartphones and tablets. The advantages it has in phones are still arguably substantial, but I don’t see it in tablets, except for the apps, as you mention below.

I see the app advantage for Apple with respect to phones, but I think the tablet territory is dangerous. The threat to PCs from tablets is well-recognized, but what about the threat to tablets from laptops-become-tablets? No Microsoft isn’t going to become dominant (not suddenly at least), but it is yet another cut in the death of a thousand cuts process.

Since it apparently has no revolutionary tech in the pipeline, Apple’s future now hinges upon the iPhone. It can hang on a long time, but that’s not really very sexy.

5

I know you’re not serious, but let’s burn this straw man right here. Apple has too much cash to be “doomed.” That doesn’t mean it can hold onto the leading-edge of consumer tech, however. As things currently stand, it will cash cow the iPhone and dick around for the next couple decades doing something-or-other. Or it might actually create something amazing again. Who knows?

Is it still hip to watch YouTube videos and play video games on an iPad? I don’t know what’s going on in the Apple store to get people excited, but they’re in there.

I used to feel included in the Apple store. I’ve bought two Macs there (owned three in total since 2004) and got the iPhone when it first came out in 2007. Somewhere along the way I stopped feeling that I had a place there. Not sure why.

6

I just want to state that I bought a surface pro 3 i5 this summer after my last laptop gave up on me and it is without a doubt the best laptop I’ve ever owned. I use it all the time for everything. It turns on instantly like an iPad and has touch screen with pen but it also runs all normal windows programs. It’s very very thin and is actually smaller than my engineering notebook at work.

7

Right. It’s like this very badass machine that trounces a MacBook in terms of functionality but costs under $800 (and today was on sale with a $200 gift card and a case thrown in).

Impressive. (And no I didn’t buy it. My 9-year-old wants one. It seems a little rich for her just yet…)

8

Samsung has had an iWatch-like thing for about a year before Apple announced their device. That you think the concept came from Apple tells me that they’re doing something right.

9

You mention price several times, but I think if you compare a similarly spec’ed Surface Pro 3 and 11 inch MacBook Air, you’ll find the prices comparable only at the low end. The higher you go, the better the deal becomes for the MacBook Air, to the point where you could almost buy a top end 11 inch MacBook Air plus an iPad Air 2 for the cost of a top end Surface Pro 3. So, with such a wide range in price, it’s hard to call cost anything put a push.

You also mention looks. If you think this looks just as cool as this, well then, maybe your next car should be a Homer. :slight_smile:

But seriously, can I ask you to quantify the position you’re taking? Can you expand on what “trounces in terms of functionality” means? Or where exactly you see the evidence of the “threat” of tablet/laptop hybrids to tablets? If these are just your gut intuitions, I have no issue with that, but the evidence I see (in terms of the marketplace, reviews, general vibe of the internet [whatever that means]) doesn’t back up what you’re saying. Which doesn’t mean that people aren’t happy with their Surfaces, of course.

No wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.

10

I bought a Windows Surface Pro 3 for my wife for Xmas. It’s a pretty kick-ass machine. She doesn’t get to use it yet, though … muwhahaha.

11

For a long time Apple was cruising a successful run based entirely on aesthetics. I didn’t understand it then, I still don’t understand it in retrospect. But even though that’s less of an emphasis now, and even less of a distinction, it put them in good enough stead to maintain their lead.

And when I say lead, I mean as home personal computers and portable devices. I believe, worldwide, businesses still overwhelmingly choose PCs and Windows for their system networks.

12

I knew about the Samsung watch. I was using “innovation” sarcastically.

13

I don’t know enough to really argue with you on this point. But the fact that the comparison can be made at all is dangerous to Apple. Not too long ago, if you wanted a sexy laptop, you know, the kind that made you look cool in the coffee shop, it was Apple. Nowadays, if someone whipped out low-end Surface and slapped on the keyboard and were working on that, would they look less hip, less savvy than the MacBook Air user? I think not.

Your analogy implies that the Surface design completely sucks compared to the iPad design. That’s just not the case. One can argue that Apple has the edge when it comes to design, but the scary thing is how much the competition has caught up.

Here’s a recent article about tablet market share:

My point is pretty general: It’s a brutal marketplace in both of Apple’s two big markets, phones and tablets. Hell, we didn’t even talk about the Kindle Fire tablets, which have their own set of advantages. Apple simple doesn’t have dominant tech any more. I think, as has been pointed out (or implied), its biggest advantage is its app ecosystem. The walled garden. The hardware keeps people in the garden, and the garden keeps people coming back to the hardware. That kind of switching cost can help keep Apple strong in the game for many years to come. It’s not really the kind of advantage that warms people’s hearts, however. “Oh, I guess I’ll stick with Apple because I have all these apps I can’t use on another device.”

So you think the iWatch will be a mega-hit like the iPod? Is it even selling well right now? I haven’t noticed anyone wearing one. I just don’t think wearables are going to be a big market. Nothing close to phones.

14

The iPod arguably won on the basis of aesthetics/design. I don’t think that can be said about Apple’s laptops, the iPhone, or the iPad. They originally all had some sort of major innovation or distinction from the competition.

Apple’s never had any kind of lead in the computer/laptop market. They were the scrappy underdog with a better OS and better build quality for a long time. Then the iPod changed everything, and then the iPhone made them Tech Jesus.

15

I was thinking of things like these, and these. Though the iPhone did have a lot of innovative aesthetics, they were a lot more justifiable than some of their other nonsense.

Right, but that’s the last 15 years, a long time. Apple have made great strides in popularity re: personal devices, and I would expect they currently dominate.

16

I’m not sure if we disagree here. I think Apple has been a great company for design, but competitors have caught up. In the area of smartphones, I don’t think Apple has a design advantage any more. There are phones with almost every possible look, and it’s a matter of taste.

It’s a quibble, but I don’t think “dominate” is the right word. They don’t have a majority market share in either phones or tablets. But they have staked out a nice position for themselves in smartphones, grabbing the lion’s share of profit.

17

I think the Apple Watch will be a bomb of truly Newton level proportions. Everyone else will be on their second or even third generation by the time Apple gets their also-ran onto the market, and nobody who has seen the demo has been raving about it - not even the most rabid Apple fans. The Moto 360 is the one to beat, and Google has built an ecosystem that is open to working with everyone, unlike Apple’s monoculture. They’ll sell a few, but not the millions they need.

Seriously, when for Andy Ihnatko is using an Android phone and wearing a Moto 360, Apple’s stock has peaked.

18

I have an iMac, MacBook Pro and an iPad. Love them all. Wouldn’t trade them for any of that PC crap.

19

If I saw someone “slapping on” a keyboard, I’d say “It sucks that he needs to slap on a second device to his first device to make it do what he wants it to do.” When it comes to personal mobile electronics, less is usually cooler than more, svelte is cooler than bulky. What is it specifically about a plasticky add-on that you find hip?

Aesthetically, it is totally the case. I look at the photo of the Surface and I see 4 large exposed ports, a kickstand and vents (vents! on a tablet!) all on a frame that’s a good bit bulkier than an iPad Air 2. Those are not beauty marks. For a mobile device that wants you to think it’s a tablet, that’s ugly. They’ve smooshed all the stuff a laptop needs into a tablet, which shouldn’t need it because it’s a tablet. That’s not catching up, that’s running the wrong way.

It is a brutal marketplace and it’s Apple and Samsung that have done the brutalizing, in terms of mindshare and profit. Importantly, neither seems to be swinging in any other competitors favor. I don’t know what advantages the Fire has over the iPad and the Surface, so what are they and why haven’t they translated into sales? Is the implementation of the kickstand and a keyboard the dominant tech that Apple doesn’t have? What matters is that you can do what you want to do with your device. Hence, the happy Surface owners in this thread. But I still don’t think you’ve made your argument that Apple is being seriously threatened by the Surface. Also, the software lock-in argument can be applied to everyone, Apple, Microsoft, Android, etc. so there isn’t much worth discussing there. If you feel otherwise, please elaborate.

I have no idea what sales of the iWatch will be. I am pointing out that you, like the guy on slashdot who will never live down his infamy, are dismissing it largely out of hand. If you have reasons other than “I just don’t think wearables are going to be a big market,” I’d love to keep the discussion going.

For shits and giggles, since you’re worried about Apple and we’re almost on the cusp of Xmas morning, let’s revisit this incredibly useless and unscientific search of tweets from Xmas morning 2013 for the terms “got iPad,” “got Note,” “got Kindle” or “got Surface.”

120,608 got iPad vs. 4,177 got Surface.
No idea what it’ll be like in a few days. It’s a good bet that the numbers will be closer, but I’m guessing it will still be a merryer Xmas in Cupertino than in Redmond. I will eat my words if necessary.

20

The Surface has ports and vents because the Surface is basically a laptop with a detachable keyboard. It has the performance of a Macbook Air, but is a tablet. There is no iPad that has that level of processing power or that runs a full version of OSX.

Let us know when Apple produces one.