As of yet, he hasn’t surprised me in any way. Republican women surprised me, by backing him at the voting booth, but not Trump himself.
This.
“Modern” history? Which President was successfully impeached in “older” history?
Also, are you saying that the Republicans might agree to start the impeachment in the House but none of the senators will vote “guilty”, no matter what the allegations and evidence, to avoid a successful impeachment?
How do you go from 50/50 to 10%?
Given that (according to you) there’s zero chance of impeachment for two years, then year 3 will happen, and you are saying that it’s 50/50 that Trump will be impeached in that year. It seems to me that means that there’s a 50% chance of being impeached “at all”.
Anyway, I think that the most likely scenario that could lead to impeachment would involve Trump’s narcissitic vindictiveness towards those members of his party who disagree with him, and Trump’s abuse of power as President when tries to get back at them.
This is silly. The word “successful” is nearly meaningless in that sentence, according to your interpretation. Are unsuccessful impeachments super-common, any time someone introduces a bill of impeachment and it goes nowhere?
Of course impeachment begins and ends in the house–but the purpose of an impeachment is to remove the president from office. You succeed at your action by accomplishing your aims. If you impeach the president and the president is not removed from office, you haven’t accomplished your aims. It’s only a successful impeachment if the president is removed from office.
No, I wasn’t making any commentary on the senators and you are quite right on my implied odd for impeachment. The 10% came from his average chance of impeachment each year rounded for the total WAGness of the numbers themselves. 50/4=12.5% which implies precision I certainly don’t think it deserved and since I’m overestimating the odds to begin with I rounded down to 10 rather then up to 15.
Also aside from trump blowing putin on the floor of the Senate (since photos or video will be said to have doctored) there is no chance of more then 10 Republicans between both house voting to impeach.
Sadly, I think this is true. Besides, the process takes for ever.
I vote he doesn’t get impeached, but a massive blue wave knocks him and the Republicans off the map in 2020.
Some sort of attack from Russia that Trump could have protected America from had he listened to Intelligence communities.
The issue isn’t this one of precision: your calculation is plain wrong.
According to you, the only year in which Trump could to be impeached is year 3, and the odds of that happening are 50/50.
There is only one coin toss and it happens in year 3. There’s no coin toss in years 1, 2 and 4. According to your description of what can happen, the probability of impeachment is 50%.
What are the chances of more than 9 Republicans voting to impeach? How about 8? What happens at 11?
Not gonna happen.
Correct answer!
Imagine if impeachment happens though. All the newspapers will have some dump looking pic of Trump on the first page with the headline: America to Trump, “You’re Fired.”
I put him being gone in 10-15 months.
Repubs hate him and would near unanimously prefer Pence.
Dems hate him.
Most press hates him.
The intelligence community hates him.
The Repub powers are desperate to take the asylum back from the inmates.
He is a hell of a liability in 2020, and somewhat of one in 2018
He is a buffoon who will say or do something stupid and offensive with the certainty and regularity of the Sun coming up in the east.
He no longer has someone as equally unlikable to make him seem more palatable.
He seems to think he can communicate to his people through Twitter, but his base is old and doesn’t use twitter. It depends on what Fox news, Limbaugh decide to go with, but if they all decided to go against him, he will be a universal punching bag, reacting with his characteristic 2nd grade debate style.
He is also easily manipulated so I can see him being convinced to decide to resign to focus on his delusionally imagined role world business leader. Otherwise just wait for the inevitable exposure to the real Trump to grate on the people and turn more and more people off until dumping him has a mandate of support.
I’m not confident in this prediction, but I think he could be gone within seven or fewer months of inauguration. He’s a Latin American dictator without the Latin spiciness. The GOP Congress would dump him in a few months if they were smart, and then do their damnedest to make Pence look like a reasonable leader.
(Knocking him out immediately might look like the swamp stopped “the hero” Donald Trump from draining it. Keeping him around too long makes them look like they’re colluding with his corruption. But this is a guy who will do something utterly “unpresidential” pretty quickly.)
Unfortunately they are not smart. But Ted Cruz has cause to hate him, John McCain has cause to despise him, Marco Rubio thinks he’s trash, and I expect a number of other Congresscritters dislike him as well. And it’s not like opposing Trump is an election risk if you have a well-gerrymandered, reliably GOP district that always wanted a Republican more than they wanted Donald Trump.
I believe it was in Two Corinthians that the LORD said, “Ain’t no crime to remove a career criminal from office and make yerself look good by opposing him.”
I doubt he’d run, if he’s even still healthy/alive enough to do so by then. I don’t think he intended or expected to win in the first place, and I doubt he’ll enjoy it.
While trump himself is unpredictable, congress isn’t nearly so much. If trump’s popularity gets into the teens, the midterms turn a lot of reactionaries out of office, and he slaps around more and more elected representatives (this last being the only thing I would truly bet on), then trump will start to look like someone dumpable with sufficiently few repercussions that they will try it. That’s when impeachment will happen if it does – when trump’s base shrinks to non-voting troglodytes only.
Once again, I have to repeat. If you were a Republican, would you want GOP to be forever known as the only party, ever, that had a President that was impeached and removed from office?
That’s a permanent, and enormous, black mark. Cannot ever be removed. It would be utter stupidity for Republicans to inflict it on themselves. In spite of what a lot of posters here may think, Republican leadership is not stupid. It won’t happen.
All they have to say is Trump was never really a Republican. And it’s even mostly true.
Who cares what they would “say”. He is a Republican President. He officially ran as a Republican, he officially won as a Republican, he is acknowledged by a vast majority of Republicans as one of their own, he will be known as a Republican President.
As I said, having a Republican President as the only one ever in history that was successfully impeached (for the pedants, impeached and removed from office), is an enormous permanent black mark that no Republican would ever want placed on the GOP. All Democratic fantasies about it notwithstanding.
I think you are putting way more emphasis on that point that it deserves. It would be embarrassing, but meaningless in the big picture. If 2020 seemed to be balancing on Trump being removed or not, I don’t think the black mark would have much weight at all.
THEY ALREADY HAVE THAT BLACK MARK.
Look up Richard Milhous Nixon. Read and be amazed.