Will he be impeached or resign during his first term or will he serve one or two complete terms? Place your bets folks! 
I say resign as the scandals multiply by July 2017. Just a gut feeling. Or fantasy.
I’d never realized that if only October was just a little bit longer, the months would make a smooth wave form when listed out like that.
Not really related to the thread topic, I realize.
I think he’ll stick it out a bit past the 2018 midterms at least. How the GOP fares in those midterms will affect the stay-or-go decision a lot - although I could see a GOP defeat actually further hardening Trump’s determination to ***stay ***in the White House, especially if the Republicans put intense public pressure on Trump to resign for fear that he sinks their electoral ship in 2020 - Trump may well dig in his heels, “Nobody tells ME when to stay or go!” Conversely a GOP victory might make Trump think, “OK, I’ve solidified my winner legacy and I now am in good PR shape to step down from this exhausting, nerve-killing job - I am going out as a winner in the eyes of the media and my supporters.” Trump may be very willing to leave the White House, he just needs the right circumstances to do so - he has to look good while doing so, and a GOP midterm victory would do that.
It looks like it took over two years to take down Nixon from the time of the Watergate break-in, and possibly he might never have given in if it weren’t for “the smoking gun tape”, which was found in August 1974. He still didn’t resign until November 1974.
So…assuming that history plays out the same, I think that it will just depend on how long it takes to find a smoking gun. From that point, it should be quick.
If you’re pretty sure that Trump will be gone quickly I suggest you place your bets. In the U.K. the books are running between 4-1 and 11-10 on resignation or impeachment.
If I’m honest I think he’ll make it through his entire first term, but I have nothing to base that on. He’s given everybody tons of ammunition and lots of reasons to try to force him out, but as yet nothing is big enough to make it happen, just a general scumminess.
People are watching too many crime shows on TV. Combing through thousands of intercepts, requesting records from various sources, combing through those, developing hypotheses, using those to determine new sources to be combed through, getting access to those, going through those, etc. The time adds up. As I noted, it took two years to find the smoking gun on Nixon. Republicans would say that they’ve been searching for a smoking gun on the Clintons for 25 years.
In a partisan world, it’s difficult for half of everyone to tell the difference between reasonable suspicion and political spin. Our systems generally require a lot more than 50% acceptance to make anything happen, so unless you can get a full, long-term investigation over the course of (potentially) years, you’re not going to accomplish anything. And any criminal smart enough to make it into the White House is probably going to be a bit harder to catch than your average drunk convenience store thief.
But it’s a wonderful little observation. 
He could just drop dead, he has a terrible diet and doesn’t seem to exercise. A friend of mine thinks one of his right wing, pizzagate, tin foil hat supporters is going to kill him.
I actually thought one of those same supporters would take out Obama before he got his chair in the Oval Office set right.
I’m terrible at predictions, but I think he’ll serve his entire term. McConnell and Ryan love him.
As things stand I would tend to agree that the probabilities are in favor of a full first term, save for unforeseen mishap to his person or some incident that is entirely beyond the parameters of normal scandal – I’d tend to agree with **Velocity ** in that how the landscape looks after the midterm will influence his decision, and he will absolutely want to be seen as going out on top.
I’ve decided to go for August, six months from now. I feel like the information underlying the Russian Connection - while not public - is already making sufficiently strong waves in Washington* that the current investigations will be allowed to continue in earnest. And while that sort of investigation could take often take years, the simple incompetence of Trump’s team will, I think, make it a quicker job than that - not to mention that the investigations had already begun last August. So, another six months seems like a pretty reasonable time table until we start to see some official reports from the investigations come out and fall-out from them.
- The number of leakers for each article is massive compared to anything in history, the CIA made a hard and public decline on Flynn’s aide’s security clearance without anyone seeming to raise a fuss, Paul Ryan is failing to defend the President (if you pay attention to his specific word choices), and all of the people who would be doing the investigations - James Comey, Richard Burr, etc. - are completely silent on the topic.
Considering that a president leaving office before his term expired, except in the case of death, has happened exactly once in the nation’s history i find it rather optimistic for progressives to assume He’s going to be gone in the next month or two.
Independence Day.
“Welcome to Jail!”… PUNCH
It would sure be a voting dilemma for some if Trump promised to resign from the presidency immediately in the event of a 2018 GOP midterm victory. 
I don’t think they love him. But they are happy that he’s getting all the attention and they can go about their business with no one watching.
I know, I know – every reporter out there is saying his White House is in total chaos and the whole administration is falling apart. But this is also the same fine professional press that reported Hillary as a shoe-in for victory. He’s going to finish his term.
Or considering my track record on predictions of things related to Candidate Trump, am I just saying this to bring him bad juju and drive him out of office? Only the Shadow knows.
I’d say he will do one term, not a second term if another party can come up with a decent candidate this time.
Could/will the Republicans run a candidate against Trump? I know traditionally it would never happen, but are there any laws preventing it?
Absent any health issues, including bullet-related ones, he will finish his first term at least. Take it FWIW - I predicted he wouldn’t make it past the first primaries.
Regards,
Shodan
ETA - no, there is no law against the GOP nominating someone other than their own incumbent. Other than the law of “he’s the incumbent - let’s not shoot ourselves in the foot”.