I’m going to go for death by old age in what would, under the old system, be his fifth term.
Full first term. God help us.
This Russia thing could start to snowball. But I fear you are correct.
Not even going to guess a date, because nothing about Trump or his presidency makes sense. But based on this first month, and particularly if this Russian connection gains enough legs, I would not be surprised if Trump suddenly found himself suffering from some medical condition that required him to step down, having successfully made America great in the first six months of his presidency. Or some similar face saving excuse. But this is kind of wishful thinking – I don’t think Trump has enough connection with reality to think that things are going anything other than great right now. And I don’t think the Republicans mainstream political machine has enough influence with Trump to force that kind of exit if things get hairy.
Let’s see what big hairy scandals the next month or so brings, and then ask the magic 8 ball again.
The odds are that he’ll finish out his term. He’s not going to quit, and he won’t be impeached as long as the Republicans can use him to get what they want.
Even assuming the Democrats take over congress in 2018 (a long shot – the map and gerrymandering are against them), the best they could do is impeach him and not have enough Senate votes to convict. If Nixon were president today, Congress wouldn’t have removed him from office, either.*
It’s wishful thinking to believe Trump won’t be in the White House on January 1, 2021.
*Technically, he quit before impeachment (and Trump would never quit), but the writing was on the wall.
My guess is that GOP pressure to stay in the White House will evaporate and flip to a clamor for resignation a month or two before halfway through Trump’s term, so that Pence will be eligible to run in his own right for two terms rather than one. 
Yes, that’s not how I voted. I misread. :o
I think Trump may step down if he thinks he faces near-certain defeat in 2020. Even though he did beat the odds in 2016, he’s smart enough to realize that lightning may not strike twice, and he would surely prefer to step down on his own terms as a winner rather than lose in humiliating landslide fashion in 2020. In such a situation, his ego would force him to be realistic about his odds of reelection, and he can’t wait until mid-election to step down - i.e., “President Trump has resigned, in face of polls showing him trailing Kamala Harris by 16 percentage points” - that wouldn’t do, he’d look bad. To save face, he has to resign long before election polling shows him in a deep hole.
I’m not sure Pence even really has presidential ambition. We could see Trump resign, Pence then become president but declare intention to ***not ***run in 2020, and then the GOP nominates the likes of Cruz, Rubio or Cotton for president, with Pence being placeholder president until January 20, 2021.
But that would require a level of foresight that he has not demonstrated. 
January 2021. Accept it already.
He’s not smart enough to tie is own fucking shoes. We need to stop saying “he must be smart, he got elected and beat a whole bunch of smart people in doing so.”
He’s Chancy Gardener, that’s all.
Nitpick: the “smoking gun tape” was publicly released on August 5, 1974; Nixon announced his resignation three days later, and Gerald Ford was sworn in on August 9.
I will be very surprised if, assuming he makes it past the midterms, no Republican steps up to primary him (run against him for the Republican nomination for president).
I said October of this year. No reason or hunch, just a prediction. I just don’t think he’ll survive one year in office. I hope he doesn’t leave this mortal coil through nefarious schemes, as I suspect that would only enrage his heavily-armed supporters. I think he’ll likely walk out of the Oval Office on his own accord simply because he doesn’t actually have the testicular fortitude to be POTUS.
I voted January of 2020. Yes, I’ve posted previously about a double impeachment after a (hopefully) Democratic wave in the 2018 midterms, but it should be obvious those are just fantasies at this point. I see no way for Trump to win in 2020 short of the Democrats shooting themselves in the foot by doing something like running Clinton again. As far as his health, I see no reason to expect him to die of natural causes in the next four years. His father died at 93 (yes, I know he had dementia long before that) and his mother at 88. He obviously has the stamina to be traveling the country and giving multiple rallies per day. As far as assassination sure it’s a possibility, but I think unlikely and if it did happen would end up making him a martyr.
Even if something worse than scumminess comes up, that doesn’t mean the GOP would vote to impeach or, if it comes to that, convict. Combining the odds of him getting caught with the odds of a GOP-majority House impeaching and the odds of getting at least some GOP senators to convict… it’s a very, very low probability.
:smack: I meant January of 2021, not 2020 :smack:
Chancy was at least a pleasant human being.
The chaos and scandals in the first month are pretty alarming especially since all of this is self-created by Trump and his team. Just wait until we start to lock horns with China, North Korea, or Russia. What happens after the next terrorist attack on American soil? What crazy action will Trump take?
I realize it is wishful thinking but I hope the Republicans impeach him just to save their own skins. Working a bit backwards from the mid-term elections (Nov 2018), they will want to get rid of him before the summer recess. So July 2018 will be his last month in office. Republicans can say they gave him a fair chance but ultimately had to make a hard choice for the good of the country.
Don’t kid yourself. The Republicans would stake him to the ground and feed him to the crows without a second thought. They’d much rather have Pence, because he’s a party man and predictably reliable. Trump is single-handedly destroying their future prospects. The mid-terms are going to be an utter disaster for the Republican Party. And 2 years from now you can quote me on that.