A much more discreet way to depose Trump would be 2/3 Cabinet + VP vote.
First of all, you don’t need 2/3 of the cabinet, just 1/2. But then Trump objects and it goes to Congress. Where 2/3 vote is needed both in the House and in the Senate.
But that’s another hope 
Maybe Lessig can go on BBC to talk about it.
There are whole threads of people Internet saying ‘nope, can’t ever happen’ each time a candidate dropped out the nomination process.
At his point in time all you have to do is back against the crowd.
I rather enjoy and even kind of admire this kind of “by golly, this is bound to work!” thinking, but I like Roadrunner-Coyote cartoons too.
Regards,
Shodan
So we’re arguing over what the meaning of “is” is.
I think he’ll resign. The novelty will soon wear off and he won’t thnk it is fun anymore.
Catamount: Good point; shortly before the 2018 midterms, when the GOP suddenly sees the thread of the loss of their Congressional majorities. I’ll play the game too, and specify August 9, 2018 – the anniversary of Richard Nixon’s resignation.
Except for Florida and a couple of other southern states. We can most certainly grow the bananas there.
Agreed. Trump will not be impeached, nor will he resign. The Republicans will not lose either house of Congress in the 2018 midterms. And given the way that the Democrats are going, I lean towards believing that Trump will be re-elected in 2020.
Since I failed to foresee that Bush Jr. would win not once, but twice and confidently thought Hillary would win this time around it’s obvious to me that The Universe will see fit to have the economy turn around, Peace will break out and none of it will be due to anything Trump has done, at which point he will win a second term and be proclaimed the Greatest Republican President since Reagan.
He’s already been imoranged, it just needs to fade to peach.
I also think that there’s a high probability that he will resign.
For getting the boot, though, I think there’s a few distinct possibilities:
- Putin starts taking over countries left and right and, between the Left and the anti-Commie Right, they step up to remove Trump.
- Trump and China seem to be heading into a genuine war, Trump gives some crazy “We’re going to blow them to smithereens!” speech, and proceedings are started to drop him.
- Some one of the investigations into Trump’s business practices or Russian connections finally proves out and there’s no choice but for him to go. He refuses to step down gracefully (ala Nixon), and so proceedings have to start.
- Same as #3, but here we’re assuming that the real investigations don’t really start until the Legislature swings back to the Left in 2 years, so there’s a 2 year delay.
In general, I’d say he’s a fairly easy target. But law and order isn’t fast, so that path could take many more months or years. The quickest it could come depends on how things pan out between us, China, and Russia and how quickly things go off-the-track in a way that the public can’t accept.
Ultimately, parties may want whatever to happen, but they’re still at the mercy of the general public. If we all want Trump gone, he’ll get the boot, regardless of which party is running the Legislature. Trump just has to fuck up big enough. It remains to be seen how long that will take.
“High”? Then you’d probably be interested in a small bet. What odds would you give?
Not high as in “over 50%”, but still a reasonably large slice of the pie. I’ll go with 1 in 3.
Ok. By what date? 2 to 1 odds. If by that date he resigns, I’ll pay $200. If he doesn’t, you pay $100. To make it nice and not-mercenary, we can make the recipient the winner’s favorite charity.
Certainly the only question is whether and when the Republican congress will decide that he’s enough of a liability to their reelection that it’s time for him to go. Impeachable offenses from his many conflicts of interest and cowboy attitude will be plentiful. Hell, when he pledges to “preserve, protect and defend the Constitution” he’ll be committing perjury on Day 1.
Let’s go with 3 years from now. January 12, 2020. Bets off if he’s impeached/killed/etc.
I don’t. And when we’re debating an actual impeachment, it would behoove us to use the proper term, too.
Cool. Bookmark it
I used to say that, too. Way back in the days when I was confident about making predictions about Trump.