You’re probably correct. I was just thinking if they manage to kill health care for poor rural whites there could be a riot come 2018 either that or starting multiple trade wars and cratering the economy both of which I see as fairly likely but you’re right that it’s probably not at 50%. It’ll have to be something ugly though.
Not if Pence becomes perceived as a big, big improvement over Trump.
That would be impossible since 2 other presidents have already been impeached. You are confusing “removed from office” with “impeached”.
That’s why I added “successfully”. Clinton’s impeachment was a failed one. And Nixon was “removed from office” without being impeached.
But on what issues would they reach such an impasse?
The next four years will be complementary Rubber Stamps. Congress will Rubber Stamp all of Trump’s pet projects (Mexican Wall, MAGA, Fuck the Muslims), because none of them will directly impact standard GOP plans. And Trump will Rubber Stamp everything the GOP Congress passes (Repeal the ACA, ban abortion, Fuck the Gays) because he doesn’t give a shit about those issues one way or the other.
So over which topic would they ever come into conflict?
Clinton was successfully impeached–the impeachment was what happened in the House, the bringing of charges against him. AFTER the impeachment comes the trial in the Senate, which failed to convict him.
Likewise, Andrew Johnson was successfully impeached in 1868, although the Senate trial failed to come up with the votes to convict.
Nixon resigned when it became obvious the House would be able to impeach him successfully.
Congress probably won’t rubber-stamp PAYING for the Mexican wall, or any other of Trump’s pet projects that has a direct financial impact on their other plans. It’s also hard to predict what Trump will do on abortion or some other social issues, because he seems to agree with whoever he talked to last, and Ivanka for example has more opportunity to be that last person than some others.
After the Cheeto-in-Chief shoots a nuke at Russia when his bromance with Putin sours (and Putin, of course, retaliates), what is left of the government may pull it together enough to impeach him. Barring that, I fear we are stuck with him for at least four years.
However, with his complete lack of understanding of foreign policy (or even policy in general), it is conceivable that he could initiate a policy incident so damaging that he would have to be removed. And were the Dems to regain control of one or both legislative bodies after the midterm elections, it is possible an effort might be made to remove him.
He’s either going to quit, or stick it out. There will be no impeachment.
The deciding factor is how much cognitive dissonance he’ll actually experience when the policies he utters, mainly on twitter, aren’t what is actually set into motion.
If he actually has the capacity to notice, instead of just continuing to say “I never said that” about things that are on tape and paper, he’ll fire and replace a bunch of people until the government just breaks down, and then quit.
But I find it entirely plausible he’ll just keep blaming the lying media and sabotage by underlings and run the government properly into the ground.
What the hell, I’ll play.
I’ll go for June/July/August 2018. I won’t predict the charges because there’s too much to pick from at this point.
It’s funny so many of you think Trump’s going to be the GOP’s rubber stamp. If there’s anything I’ve learned from the last election, it’s that Trump is totally unpredictable.
My thinking on this is very similar to what Horatius posted above. One character trait of his might cause him to be a faulty rubber stamp: his tendency to be swayed by the most recent person he talked with. I wonder if we will see a series of vetoes that he rescinds. Can a president rescind a veto?
Count me among those thinking impeechment unlikely.
Yes, I know. And you’re wrong. Impeachment begins and ends in the House. A successful impeachment is one that passes in the House. An unsuccessful impeachment is one that does not pass in the House. It’s flat out wrong to say that an impeachment that passed in the House is somehow “unsuccessful”. What the Senate does is a separate issue.
It’s one of two - I’ll say “never,” as the Republicans won’t do it, and the Democrats will “take the high road” by not doing it if they get control of the House in 2018.
The “B answer” is:
Date: January 7, 2019 - the first Monday of the session following the 2018 elections (this gives the House time to swear in new members and get things in order)
Branch of Executive initiating proceedings - not applicable; only the House can initiate impeachment
Grounds for Impeachment - something to do with maintaining his business interests
Outcome - the same as Bill Clinton; impeached by the House, but acquitted by the Senate (but in the end, he’ll be voted out in 2020)
fwiw, a Harvard Law Professor has just been on the BBC saying he thinks there’s a good chance Trump will be inpeached at some stage under article i, section 9, clause 8 = the emoluments clause of the constitution …
Bah. Legalistic quibbling. When people say “Impeached” they mean removed from office, not just charged.
LOL. Is that the same Harvard Law Professor (Lessig) that was swearing that at least 20 Trump electors were ready to flip a few days before the electors voting?
Not gonna happen, and I don’t even mean impeachment as removal from office. I mean just the legal proceedings, as in Clinton.
Hope springs eternal, don’t it?
Regards,
Shodan
Well, to tell you the truth, I am kinda glad that these people find something (no matter how fantastic) to hang their hopes on. It’s when passionate (even if mistaken) people have no hope that they are drawn to extreme actions. Not that I think that Lessig himself can possibly go that way. He’s all talk.