The Spurs with Duncan are the Patriots of the NBA.
Miami-San Antonio would be an interesting Finals, though I think Memphis would be a tougher matchup for Miami with their size and with Tony Allen guarding Wade.
Minus the cheating, of course.
Well, Duncan and Ginobili are suspiciously effective at this stage in their careers.
I’ve been thinking that for a while. There are some other good coach-front office combinations in the NBA but there’s no other team that has been run this well for anywhere close to this long.
Duncan is 37 and has had a great bounceback season this year. Ginobili is 35 (a couple of weeks younger than Tom Brady) and has been going downhill for several years, but he’s still very effective in his role. I’m not all that suspicious of either- not that that has anything to do with the kind of cheating the Patriots were accused of.
Has there been any real doubt this year that Miami is going to get championship #2?
That’s one of my major problems with the NBA, the lack of parity. Going into this season, it was either the Heat or the Thunder, but then Westbrook goes down, so it’s the Heat. I like the Spurs and all and I’d love Duncan to get another, but barring injury aren’t the Heat going to win it all? And didn’t we know that back when the season started?
I think there’s a difference between parity and an outcome that’s essentially totally random, which is what the NFL has. Before the NBA season started, who was going to win it last year, or the year before?
I wouldn’t say the NFL is random, there is too much continuity amongst the best teams (not to mention too much continuous suckitude amongst the worst) for it to be random. But the NFL is certainly less predictable than the NBA.
Miami, the Spurs or the Thunder (although the Thunder was more of a surprise).
Dirk Nowicki’s playoff run was exciting and unexpected, so kudos to them. I think they were the exception rather than the rule. The Lakers won the two prior to that, which was completely predictable, and before them the Celtics put together their winning team.
Before each season begins, you can pick out the four best teams in the NBA and one of those four is, by and large, going to win it all. NBA basketball is a game where the best players usually win, and, even more cringe inducing, the lesser teams usually lose. Going into this season, we knew that one of two teams was the likely winner, and, if things got real interesting, there might be four teams that could win it all. But when Westbrook got injured, it is all but assured the Heat will win it all. Sure the Spurs could win it all, and there will always be exceptions to the rule, but, by and large, the NBA is highly predictable.
I definitely agree that the NFL is much less predictable than the NBA. Where we disagree is on the idea that this is true because of parity of talent. I don’t think we disagree at all about what the difference between the two is. It’s just a matter of perspective whether one is “highly” predictable or the other is utterly unpredictable.
The thing is, I think it’s pretty easy to identify the most talented teams in the NFL, too – they just don’t win as often as they do in the NBA, and I think that’s because the NFL playoffs are a total crapshoot, not because the true talent level is necessarily that close. The fact that you can put 10-15% of the league’s teams in a bucket and say “one of these is going to win” and be right, but not necessarily know which one, to me, means the season is working to determine a champion, not that there’s some kind of problem with a lack of parity in the NBA. Why shouldn’t one of the best teams win, and why should it be so hard to tell which ones are the best?
On edit - I should probably say “quality” rather than talent, to avoid confusion. I mean which teams are good and which ones aren’t, not which teams have famous players on them.
The difference in predictability in the NFL vs the NBA is the one and done playoffs vs the seven game series. In a seven game series it is almost impossible for the better team not to win every time.
Game 7, it all comes down to this! I’m really impressed that the Pacers gutted this one out, especially when Miami drew to within 4. I thought the Heat would have won after Lebron took the entire team on his back but Wade and Bosh were like…abysmal. Wade seems to be useless almost every 3rd game, and Bosh is having nightmares where Hibbert beats him up and steals his lunch money
I think the Heat will win game 7 though, Lance Stephenson will probably continue to struggle, and the Heat bench, along with Haslem, will put up at least 15 more points
What do you guys think about the talk I hear on the radio that, if the Heat doesn’t win the title, let’s say they get beat by the Pacers, that they’ll try to trade Bosh? He’s been hobbled both last year and this year, hasn’t really been effective as a “big man”. The Heat’s Achillies Heel both last year and this is their inside presence, and if they continue with Bosh, it probably will continue to be their weakness. Indiana’s not going anywhere and Chicago’s going to get healthier. The Heat’s offseason, if they lose, will be an interesting one…
NBA Playoffs? Oh, hey, when do those start?
Thank you for your useful contribution. This Lebron would be winning championships in Cleveland just as easily as he is in Miami. Hell, Moe Williams and Antawn Jamison were better than this playoffs Wade and Bosh. Wade is just breaking down right before our eyes, at least last year he could still put up big games in between the stinkers but he’s had 12 straight games of under 20 points for the first time in his career. Bosh is just not the kind of player you want in this series but overall he’s still good and can put up the numbers if used well. Battier, Allen, Lewis and Miller are all done.
I tell Heat fans to relax. There is no way the NBA keeps the LeBron out of the Finals. They’ll bring back Tim Donaghy back if need be.
If the NBA is so predictable you should be raking in the cash.
Except that he wouldn’t be playing like this in Cleveland because they never used him the way the Heat are using him and never built this good of a team around him (or this type of team). So this is wrong on every level. The Pacers are playing great and giving Miami a lot of matchup problems because of their size, and it’s true that Wade seems to be hurt and Bosch isn’t doing much of anything. The Heat will probably still win this series, and they’re lightyears better than any team LeBron ever played on in Cleveland. I think this is the best team since the Shaq-Kobe Lakers.
I don’t think anything of it. If you’re thinking they’ll try to trade him for a more traditional center, not there are a whole lot of those anyway, you’re wrong. Their size is a weakness against the Pacers but it’s been exceptionally good for them overall. They’re not dumb enough to sacrifice that so they can move backward.
He missed all of eight games this year, found his role in their offense, and made a big contribution to their offense by becoming a credible three-point shooter.
Common sense and their 66-16 record during the season says they’re willing to live with that. Could they bring in some more depth by, say, using the amnesty clause on Miller? Sure.
Why? They’ve been one of the worst rebounding teams in the league since they joined up and get eaten up by any half decent big man. Hibbert was a 12/8 player in the regular season and may as well be Hakeem right now. And their offense is still pretty stupid. They got taken to 7 games by the washed up Celtics last year. Bosh in his prime was getting lit up by KG in the twilight of his career. They were lucky to face OKC last year, basically a worse version of them.
If they get to the finals this year they’ll have done so without facing a single 50 win team. Talk about lucky. If there’s any justice it’ll be a repeat of 2007.
Maybe they could beat the 2004 Pistons, since Big Ben was a non-scorer and Sheed didn’t always want to punish you down low. Anyone other champion of the last decade? It’d be ugly.
Miami went off at 1-3 odds to win the Championship after Westbrook went down. Tough to rake in the cash on that.
I think Lebron is playing at a prime Jordan level and the rest of the team stinks. Cleveland never put players as good as Wade and Bosh around Lebron but both of them are stinking so far in this playoffs, and Miami keeps having problems against teams with a strong inside presence. And apart from those two the rest of Lebrons supporting crew is complete garbage.
I agree with what you are saying in theory, but the issue will not be that they trade to get a “better” player, but rather that they trade to get a less expensive one. Chris Bosh is their highest paid player (tied with James). In what universe does that make sense? They are $26mm OVER the cap. To highlight my point:
It will likely be worse next year. Maybe that makes sense in the short term if you win 2 rings in 3 years. It makes less sense if you win one, don’t even make the finals during another, and start to see luxury fines subject to repeater status.
Right now they can attract older mid-level talent to play for a ring in their twilight years, and can take chances on young guys who don’t get paid much. The problem is that it’s hard to attract older talent to play for less than “free-market” wages if you are no longer a guaranteed title contender. I think they need to decide whether they want to be a fully Lebron-centered team. If so, there is no path after 2014 to do that with Wade and Bosh making anywhere close to what they make now. Additionally, they need to start tailoring the rest of their team more fully towards Lebron’s deficits and strengths. They have started, but they can’t fully commit when 3 players eat up literally the whole salary allotment under the cap.
Maybe you give Wade a pass in thanks for the first ring and for what he means to Miami, but Bosh is increasingly becoming an good, but wildly overpaid and underutilized player. He was 35th in efficiency this year. Right between there Tyson Chandler (salary: $13mm, and overpaid), and Zach Randolph ($15.2mm). Even saving 4 million would free the Heat up to get a decent bench player who could pick up some of the slack. If you use PER, Bosh is 29th between David West and Paul Milsap. Among Centers, Bosh was 10th. Why not trade him to get KG on a short term cheap contract, and an up and coming guy like JJ Hickson? Or you could get Anderson Varejao for $7.7mm, DeMarcus Cousins for $4.9mm, or Joakim Noah for $11.3mm. My point is just that there are A LOT of cheaper, comparable options that would make more sense long term.
Oh, I apologize. Let me add something poignant. NBA Playoffs? Oh, hey, when do those start?