Like all NBA games, halfway through the fourth quarter.
If you don’t want or care to talk about the playoffs, you don’t have to reply. Replying just to make seemingly sniping comments should be stopped.
Ok, gotcha. But it did set up one hell of a funny (and true) reply by kidchameleon, and for that I’m not ashamed.
:rolleyes:
Is this a serious question? They won 66 games this year and went close to undefeated over the second half of the year with the second-longest winning streak ever. They were one of the best offensive and defensive teams in the league despite their rebounding deficiencies. Yes, they don’t rebound very well because they like to play small. For most of the year they had little trouble making up for that.
Yeah, I mean, they barely even won one championship! They stink.
I don’t know if that’s the same issue YogSosoth was talking about.
Erm, in the universe of contracts the Heat and the players agreed to? Seriously- who cares? Do teams have to strictly organize their contracts so the best player makes the most money, second best gets the second-most, and on down? If you want a player, you pay him what you think you need to get him. This year Amare Stoudemire made more money than Carmelo Anthony, Joe Johnson made more than Deron Williams, and eight guys made more money than LeBron, who was by far the best player in the league. I think Tim Duncan has the fourth-highest salary on the Spurs. We could keep going, but it really doesn’t matter.
Yes, it’s possible they will have some cost issues in the next couple of years. LeBron and Wade and Bosh all have the ability to opt out of their contracts after another season or two and it’s possible they’ll either lose one of them (I think they’d keep Bosh over Wade if it came down to that) or get them to agree to smaller deals if it’s possible.
This is just ridiculous. Their entire team makes sense if you win two championships in three years, but if you win one championship and the next year lose in game seven of the conference finals after being the best team in the league all year, you need to completely rearrange things because it’s obviously not working?
Good lord, those are supposed to be options? Garnett, as much as I like him, is probably finished and may retire. He refused a trade to the Clippers this year. If we pretend he wants to keep playing and would go to Miami, he could give them maybe 20 minutes a game and Bosh plays 30 to 35, so they would have to bring in someone else to fill that gap. Cousins is a lunatic with no discipline and would be an awful choice for a contending team, Varejao is fun but can’t stay healthy, and you seriously think the the Bulls would trade Noah for Chris Bosh? And none of those guys fit into the Heat scheme the way Bosh does because he can space the floor with his shooting.
Should be a killer game tonight. My money is on the Heat, with the X factor being Ray Allen. But I do like this Indiana team quite a bit, particularly Paul George, who is bona fide, and who may be the #1 shooting guard in the league next year (somewhat hypothetical, partly assuming that he moves to the 2 with Granger’s return, and Kobe not being the same).
Bosh hasn’t played well this series, but he was a vital part of that 66-win season. He shot 54% on mid-range jumpers this season, the best figure in the league (just edging out Garnett). The most efficient shot in the NBA this season? Any LeBron James shot within 8 feet of the rim. Bosh’s floor spacing was a big part of that. The Pacers defense is simply fantastic at defending drives and pick and rolls without opening up the sorts of shots Bosh likes (they aren’t as good at denying Haslem his baseline shot, though). Poor Bosh has been shifted out to the 3-point line on many possessions to try and lure Hibbert or West out of the paint, taking him out of his game, and excusing a large part of his awful rebounding numbers.
Wade has been much more problematic for Miami than Bosh has. At least Bosh is hitting threes at a good clip. Wade, never a strong shooter, is simply useless on offense when he is unable to drive or post up effectively.
Garnett has a no-trade clause and isn’t going anywhere, especially not to Ray Allen’s new team.
Varejao, while a nice player, is 30 years old, and has played 25, 25, and 31 games in the last three seasons.
There is no way Sacramento would trade Cousins for Bosh.
There is even less chance of Chicago trading Noah for Bosh.
Unless they want to roll the dice with Dwight Howard or (gulp!) Andrew Bynum and can swing a sign-and-trade to move Bosh, there’s no top-tier center in Miami’s future.
I am convinced Spoelstra should start Norris Cole at 2-guard over Wade. Cole has played very well this series, his 3-ball has been falling, and playing Wade is like going 4-on-5. Cole’s quickness would make Lance Stephenson have to work a lot harder, too.
I like Norris Cole a lot, and would not be surprised to see him go for 15 tonight. I don’t think that Wade has been doing poorly on D enough to sit him.
That’s the beauty of it, Wade’s been guarding Stephenson, who doesn’t require a lockdown defender to contain him. Just tell Cole to try to slide in front of Stephenson and draw the charge, and Stephenson will foul out by halftime; he has a mortal aversion to pulling up and shooting over his defender, he loves to try to barrel through or past them. Chalmers guards Hill, LeBron guards George, Bosh guards West, and Haslem guards (and fronts) Hibbert. Wade can play 15 or 20 minutes off the bench.
At any rate, that’s what I’d do if I were coach-for-a-day, and didn’t have to worry about and long-term consequences, such as media criticism, Wade being unhappy, etc. Cole shot .357 from 3 this year, and the Heat are desperate to get some floor spacing.
I’d also like to see some more 3-1 pick and pop, where Chalmers screens for James then steps behind the arc for an open 3. The little bit we’ve seen has been effective. Miami badly needs to make a dozen or more 3’s tonight, their offense is geared around creating those shots, and it’s an advantage they enjoy over Indiana, at least on paper.
All that said, Miami’s best chance is probably to post up Lebron on the left block about 30 times, and hope he annihilates George with turnarounds and spin moves, Game-6-in-Boston-last-year style. With Haslem staying along the baseline, if Hibbert slides over to help, James can feed Haslem his baseline j, which he’s been automatic on.
I think Indiana will win if they keep their turnovers under 12, and avoid foul trouble to Hill, West, George, and Hibbert. Their starters are so good, and their bench so bad, that if they get 35+ minutes from those 4, and take reasonable care of the ball, they will be fine.
I like Miami to win because I think the fact that game 7 is in Miami will make it tougher for Indiana to play physical because they’re more likely to end up in foul trouble on the road. No conspiracy theorizing there, you just get less calls on the road.
Hoping for an awesome game. I think the chances of a bonkers LeBron game are pretty good.
Stephenson hasn’t required a lockdown defender. As a young player, he’s been the definition of feast or famine, and when he feasts, the Pacers are a great team. I certainly don’t see him dropping 25 tonight, but he has the (occasional) ability to do so.
From here, Stephenson has a PER of 16.4 in playoff wins, and 4.3 in their losses.
Let’s look at this on a case by case basis depending on the team they face. I get what you’re saying, that the Heat is a great team, have accomplished a lot, but other than the one championship, they are 1-1 and being pushed to a 7th game, with home court advantage, by a team that is projected to get better next year simply because of its youth and guys getting healthy.
Winning 27 games in a row or 66 games overall doesn’t matter if you don’t win the championship. My concern, if I were the Heat, is “Can we get past a healthy Pacers or Bulls team?” And honestly, I don’t think the answer is favorable. Even when they went to the finals a couple years ago, the Bulls were the top seed and only through a freak injury did the Heat avoid having to face them at full strength. They can’t count on that next year with Granger coming back, Deng and Rose coming back, and the Pacers getting more experienced. Battier, Allen, and Miller are on the downward slide of their careers and that concerns me.
So as the Heat’s GM, I’m less concerned about riding my past accomplishments and more worried about how to extend my current wins. Whatever happens this year, can we count on Wade and Bosh next year? Is Allen, Miller, and Battier going to give you equal or great effort next year than this? What are the chances of that? And if we have to trade Wade or Bosh, can we shore up these deficiencies while minimizing their loss? I heard a shocking stat on the radio over lunch: In these playoffs, Wade has scored over 20 points only once. Once! Granted, they’ve been winning, some of those have been blowouts, but you want more than that as your #2 guy on a championship caliber team. I do think that in spots, he can be great, but obviously his body’s betraying him and there’s something wrong. If you wanted to extend the Heat’s championship chances, wouldn’t you trade for a guy who averages over 20 points? Or at least consider the possibility?
I heard Greg Oden’s planning a comeback. Some desperate team is probably going to give him $5 million a year. If there is any karma in the universe though, nobody will hire him for more than a million, at least in the first year
No, no, no, just no. Next I’ll have to listen to a bunch of garbage about the Pacers’ intangibles. The Heat made the finals two years ago, got better and won the title last year, and were better than that this year. They may or may not make the finals and win another title. That’s what you’re proposing they junk: a team that has clearly been the best in the NBA over the last three years, and one that has a good shot at remaining the best team for a couple more years. All that because the Pacers are doing a great job and giving them matchup problems. Like any team, the Heat have weaknesses they could address. The Pacers are doing a great job of exploiting those right now, which of course means they’ve played the Heat to a draw over six games. If you’re proposing a trade of Bosh or Wade, you’re saying maybe the team will be better if they trade one of those guys for parts unknown or a bunch of guys who are clearly not on the market or better than those guys. The answer is “no, they’d probably be worse.” If you’re proposing they try to build a more traditional team around a big center who plays in the post, not that those are so easy to find, you’re suggesting the Heat go away from doing some of the things they do exceptionally well so they can get better at other stuff. That’s not a great idea.
They also shouldn’t count on two teams in transition jumping ahead of them when the Heat have the best player. The Pacers are going to have some interesting decisions to make next year since this now appears to be Paul George’s team, and the Bulls will have to work Rose back in and reassemble their bench. Both of those teams should be really good.
Of course they are. They’re veterans who were brought in to play specific roles, and the theory is that as those guys become less useful, they can be replaced. It’s easier to find some guys who can shoot threes from the corner than it is to replace stars like James and Wade and Bosh.
Who is that guy? Is he someone as good as Wade who can play this well with LeBron, or is he just a guy who scores some more points? The unspoken question in this is what’s wrong with Wade- is his knee just banged up, or is he having some more serious problems that could get worse over the next few years. I can’t answer that.
The Heat have been known to be interested in Oden for quite a while. I don’t think they’ll be paying him that much if they want him.
The guy’s missed year after year with knee injuries. The prime of his career is clearly already gone. How does karma mean he deserves the bare minimum?
He feasted on Wade in game 4. He’s a slasher and an (erratic) spot-up shooter, so a smaller, quick guard like Cole should be able to handle him at least as well as larger, slower one like Wade, IMHO.
That’s a possibility I hadn’t considered. Hope he gets healthy at some point, from what little I’ve read of his time in Portland, an arrogant, incompetent training staff was to blame for a lot of his medical issues. Here’s the article. (In short, Portland consults a biomechanics expert to evaluate Oden, he tells the team that Oden’s knee is recovered but that Oden has altered his gait, placing high weight loads on his other knee to compensate for the injury, they ignore him, and Oden promptly injures that knee as well).
Other centers who’ll be available:
Al Jefferson, unrestricted free agent.
Zaza Pachulia, unrestricted free agent.
Chris Kaman, unrestricted free agent.
Andris Biedrins, unrestricted free agent.
Emeka Okafor, unrestricted free agent.
Nicola Pekovic, restricted free agent.
After Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum, and Al Jefferson, the free-agent class for centers is pretty darn ugly. Though, Pekovic is interesting. I could see a chance of trading Bosh for a package of players including someone like Omer Asik, but not an elite center, they are simply too rare to make the deal worth it for the other team.
Valid point. Honest question - does Lance have any post game? If so, I would anticipate the Pacers to exploit that mismatch on the blocks. He’s got 3 inches and 50(!) pounds on Cole. If I’m the Pacers, I’d be licking my chops at the prospect of seeing a Chalmers/Cole back court.
Not that I recall seeing, I’m not a Pacer fan, but I watched probably six regular season games of theirs and all but 2 playoff games, and I don’t recall seeing him operate in the post. If he does have a down-low game, then you’re right, it’d favor the Pacers, though I think Cole’s shooting, and the subsequent floor spacing, are worth it.
Boy, how far has Wade fallen in this playoffs that we’re arguing over whether he needs to be on the floor to defend Lance Stephenson? I almost feel bad for the guy, taking long 2’s that he can’t make, and getting denied at the rim.
If the Heat do start Wade, which is likely, he can still set good screens. They can throw in a 3-2 pick and role for James, allowing Mario Chalmers to stay in the corner, Haslem to stay on the baseline, and Bosh just past the elbow on the weak side. Then again, if I were Indiana, I’d just blitz James and dare Wade to score if he did catch it running the lane at Hibbert. Hmmm…yeah, I think James on the block is Miami’s best chance. Bet he posts up at least 20 times. I’ll count.
I still think its foolish to look at what you’ve done years ago and think it’ll equal wins in the future. I remember a couple years ago, when Orlando beat Cleveland in the ECF, and the announcers were saying Lebron had real issues now that a legitimate contender sprung up to challenge him in the East. Howard was young, Nelson was young, and the team is going to be beating up on Lebron for the next 5 years. But then they got rid of Turkoglu, Nelson regressed, then got Turkoglu back, he sucked now, and made some ill-advised trades. Lebron, meanwhile, left for greener pastures but had he known Orlando would not have been a threat to him in the future, maybe that would have changed his mind. Then again, at the same time, Rose became an MVP and his Bulls were better the next season than Lebron’s team.
So yes I see that the Heat’s been the best team over the past 3 years no matter what they do this year, but that doesn’t mean next year they’ll be equal or greater. What I’m advocating is looking at the problems we know they have (Bosh playing like a small guy, Wade hurt, aging vets) and fixing those. And no matter how much we love how Lebron can drag Wade, Bosh, and the corpse of Shane Battier around this year, its not going to get easier.
Look at it this way, if you knew, just KNEW, for sure that next year, Bosh will be playing small again, Wade will be ineffective, wouldn’t you try to get something for them during the offseason?
And speaking of Wade…
I think that as good as Lebron is, you can find a decent replacement for either of those guys. A big that plays big would give the Heat more interior presence, and honestly, he wouldn’t need to be a spot up 3pt shooter like Bosh has become to stretch the floor. Just a mid-range 15-18 foot shot is enough to give Lebron room to operate. As it stands, they could replace the $20 million or whatever Bosh is making for 3 guys who can spot up shoot, and they won’t have to pretend like they’re a big man to do it.
For Wade, I’m of the mind that the reason they floundered a bit during the first year of the Big 3 is because of the conflict between how Wade and Lebron plays. Both are Option 1 guys and Wade’s been The Man in Miami for so long he’s forgotten how to defer. For his salary, they could certainly find a serviceable guy who will defer to Lebron when the time comes. So no, I don’t think it would be difficult to find a Wade replacement, at least one who can put up 20pts, cost less, and play with Lebron
Lebron may be the best player but his supporting staff is rapidly aging before our eyes like that guy in The Last Crusade when he drank from the wrong cup. I would pick either the Pacers or Bulls to beat Miami next year if healthy. Wade’s injuries have made him a shadow of his former self that I don’t think he’ll ever get back to that level. Maybe he’ll push himself and go 30-5-5 tonight in a game 7 at home, but those days are far behind him.
Not if you keep Wade and Bosh at their salaries. They’ll have no cap to get anyone else decent. Either they all need to take a pay cut or one of them has to go
To me, knowing someone is as injury-prone as Oden, with a history of being completely unreliable on the floor means he’s gotta start over. Its been years since he’s played at a level even approaching the NCAA, I doubt his pickup games are that intense. The man needs to prove himself first. It would be a big mistake for a team to take a chance and sign him for like $5 million. He should come in at a bit more than rookie scale or the veteran’s minimum, which, depending on how its calculated, is supposed to be for either: 1) $1 million since he’s been employed for 5 years, 2) $880000 since he’s only played in 2 seasons, or 3) $788000 going by the number of games he’s actually played in. Yeah, its sad that he’s been injured and it may not have been his fault, but would you want your favorite team to sign him for $5 million or more? He really should play for the minimum because there’s no reason to expect him to play a full season
Yes, but the point is that Bosh is not WORTH the money. Of course you can always find yourself overpaying a former star player, but when it happens, you need to admit that it’s a problem. It’s worse for the Heat because Bosh is probably more useful to another team than he is to the Heat.
Yes, because it’s pretty clear evidence that the window on their dominance is rapidly closing. If they lose to the Pacers, they prospects of them winning multiple championships in the future goes from reasonable to less than likely. Not only because they will not be able to attract decent talent at low costs to fill out their roster, but they will have to deal multiple younger teams in their conference that will likely be better next year (and for longer).
Well, those options were just hypotheticals. Some more reasonable than others obviously. The larger point is that they can replace Bosh if they need to. Even though the replacement may not be as great a shooter, they don’t need someone playing Bosh’s role on a team truly designed around Lebron James.
Big men who are high-percentage mid-range shooters are actually pretty uncommon. The average NBA player shoots 38% between 16 and 23 feet. Per Hoopdata, here are the bigs who attempted at least 3 such shots per game, and made 50% or better.
Marreese Speights
Dirk Nowitzki
Chris Bosh
Earl Barron
Ryan Anderson
And, that’s it.
Bosh is among the very best players with his skill set, so I don’t see the case to trade him to bring in another guy with that same skill set.
Now, if they can sign a low-post defender for those games where they face a Hibbert/Gasol/Lopez type and want to go back to LeBron at the 3 and Bosh at the 4, that makes plenty of sense. There was a time when Kendrick Perkins would have been perfect for this role, but now he’s overpaid and totally overmatched. They’ll have a little money to play with from their expirings, but probably not enough to get a guy who’ll fit that need unless they are willing to take a discount for a chance at a ring.