NCAA March Madness 2006 - Polish up that glass slipper!

We’re less than three and a half hours from the Selection Show on CBS where we find out the 65 teams who are in, where they are playing, and we finally get all the information needed in order to fill out our brackets and office pools.

There’s 3 conference championships on the line this afternoon.

The SEC Championship between Florida and South Carolina.
The ACC Championship between Duke and BC
The Big Ten Championship between Iowa and Ohio State

The Gamecocks can crash the party with a win, the other 5 teams are in regardless of the outcome. So far we’ve had a couple upsets in conference tourneys and the bubble has shrunk, putting a few schools on pins and needles.

Here’s a couple threads that are relevant.

2006 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Fantasy Bracket - Get in on the fun.
Picking 65: 2006 NCAA Tournament Discussion - Bracketology by us amateurs.

We’ve got plenty of fans and alumni around these parts and I have no doubt a few of you are planning a long Thursday and Friday on your couch or at the nearest watering hole. Things officially get started at 5PM CST.

Two great championship games so far. What a finish in both games and I thought that the Boston College three-pointer was going to be in at the end to knock off Duke.

Does this put Duke #1 in the tourney now with UConn and 'Nova faltering in the Big East tournament?

South Carolina just lost a close one to Florida, so that’s pretty much settled. Their computer numbers aren’t really THAT bad, but with 15 losses, you have to think they’re done regardless. Texas is also playing Kansas today for that conference championship; they’re also both in, regardless.

Stuff to watch for during the selection show:

  • who gets the #1 seeds (it will most likely be four out of Duke, Villanova, UConn, Memphis, Ohio St - odds are on the first four, but if OSU wins today, they could slip in over Memphis or UConn; unfortunately for OSU, the Big Ten championship will be ending mere minutes before the brackets are announced).
  • last few teams in - Missouri St, George Mason, Hofstra, Creighton, Michigan, Utah St, Maryland, Seton Hall, Florida St, and others are all on the “far reaches” of the bubble, according to one columnist or another, so if you see those names, you’ll know they might well have been one of the last teams in (though I think people who have Missouri St. out are crazy - I know it likely means a fifth team for the MVC, but they have more top 50 wins than most of the field, and no losses outside the top 50, to go with a RPI ranking of 20).
  • interesting matchups - with many “traditional” powers having middling years and many mid-majors having huge years, we’re going to be looking at a ton of interesting first round matchups to go with even more potential “big” matchups than usual in the second round. Also, see if the committee can squeeze Gonzaga and Duke into the same bracket.

Two and a half hours to go!

There’s 5: SEC, ACC, Big Ten (er…eleven), Big 12 and Southland conferences all have (or already had) championship games today.

I rarely discuss seeding until selection Sunday, so the time has come.
My choices for #1 seeds are Duke, UConn, 'Nova, OSU. Memphis gets a #2 seed with the much weaker schedule.

more later…

SI.com has Missouri State and Creighton in while espn.com has those two replaced by George Mason and Florida State.

I’d like it to be Missouri State and George Mason but I feel Florida State is going to squeeze in somehow since they’d rather give the spot to a major conference team even with a RPI of 62 and a SOS of 114. Three losses to Duke, UNC and BC by a combined five points doesn’t mean you’re worthy of dancing.

That should read “Beating Duke (only win over a team going to the tournament) and three losses to Duke, UNC and BC by a combined five points doesn’t mean you’re worthy of dancing.”

The Gators won their second straight SEC Tournament today, so I’m happy. Looks like the SEC will be getting six teams in, with only Alabama on the bubble. They should easily make it in the field though; they’ve lost a lot of games, but played a tough schedule. Any team that goes 10-6 in the SEC better be getting in.

I would say LSU and Florida are the only teams who are true Final Four contenders, what with Tennessee being so shaky lately. I think Alabama and Arkansas could both surprise some people. The Hogs have been hot lately, and if Bama can put together a couple games playing their best, they can beat a lot of quality teams.

The Gators have been up and down lately. We played pretty bad today against a South Carolina team that’s had our number this year, but managed to barely hold on to win thanks to some good defense. I think if Taureen Green can step his game up (shooting a little better and not turning it over so much) we’ll be really good. How far we go all depends on the matchups, but we have a great shot at the Sweet Sixteen. After that, anything can happen when your team gets hot.

OSU likely does not get a #1 seed after the loss to Iowa a few minutes ago

My picks for the 34 teams to receive at large bids…

Big East

  1. UConn
    2)Nova
  2. Cincinnati
  3. Marquette
  4. Pitt
  5. WVU
  6. G’Town
    **
    ACC**
  7. UNC
  8. NC St
  9. Boston College

Big Ten
11) MSU
12) Indiana
13) OSU
14) Wisconsin
15) Illinois

Pac 10
16) Cal
17) Arizona
18) Washington

Big 12
19) Texas or Kansas
20) Oklahoma
21) Texas A&M

MVC
22) Bradley
23) UNI
24) Wichita St
25) Missouri St

CAA
26) George Mason
27) Hofstra

A-10
28) GW

SEC
29) Arkansas
30) 'Bama
31) Kentucky
32) Tennessee
33) LSU

CUSA
34) UAB


Comments on ‘bubble teams’
IMO, the best way to judge bubble teams is to examine how they have played lately.
Made the cut

  1. Texas A&M had a weak out of conference SOS but 8 wins in a row down the stretch in the Big 12 gets them in
  2. Missouri St cannot be denied with that RPI
  3. George Mason has the RPI
  4. Hostra played has RPI and played well down the stretch and reached the CAA final.

Missed the Cut

  1. Florida State kept themselves alive for a bid when they beat Duke but they fell flat in the ACC tourney
  2. Seton Hall didn’t finish well and has a marginal overall record as it is.
  3. Creighton was on the bubble going into the MVC tourney and didn’t win there.
  4. Utah State just doesn’t have the profile to even compete with the others who missed the cut
  5. Michigan already has a marginal overall profile but what really hurts them is 7 of those losses were in their last 9 games.

Seth Davis is an idiot. Michigan in? and Texas A&M out? I don’t think so.

Iowa knocks off OSU and their chances of getting a #1 seed are probably shot. Iowa probably locks up a #2 seed, we’ll see if that comes at the expense of Illinois.

I’ll be really surprised if Hofstra makes it in over Michigan. Michigan has enough quality wins to be in over the competitors from FSU, Creighton and USU. In a way Utah State is a sentimental fave for me since I think they could be a fun Bucknell-ish cinderalla this year.

Awesome Tournament montage on CBS if anyone’s watching.

The first suprise (to me anyways) of the show, Duke as the #1 overall seed. I had expected to see one of the Big East teams as the #1 overall. Winning the ACC tourney is of average importance to me considering how weak most of the ACC was all season. With Villanova making the conference semis and losing largely due to Ray’s injury, I’d have had them at #1.

I’m taking this as a hint that we’re likely to see FSU as one of the final teams in the bracket.

Cal is high as a 7, but NC State is the perfect 10 for them to beat up on. Texas will clean up on whomever comes out of that game. GW as an 8 will be one of the big talking points over the next couple of hours, I’m sure.

Duke honestly looks to have a pretty easy bracket. I also like the Iowa-WVU winner for a deep push.

George Washington as an 8 is surprising to me. I was thinking they’d be closer to a 5 or 6 even though they played in a weak A-10.

CBS Sportsline Viewable Bracket

The Atlanta region is announced.

Surpises:
George Washington falling all the way to an 8 seed.
Iowa as a 3 seed away from Minneapolis, meaning they were not the top 3 seed.
Syracuse all the way up to a 5 seed.

Best first round game, West Virginia vs. Southern Illinois.

UCLA as a 2? Goznaga as 3?

I think it should’ve been the other way around. Watch out for Kansas, I think they’re lining up for a run to the Elite Eight.

Pitt is an obvious sleeper in the top half of that bracket. The bottom half is WIDE open - who knows, Gonzaga might even have a chance! Also, they aren’t with Duke, but could (though very unlikely) meet them in the national semifinal.

Memphis might have almost rather been a 2 seed somewhere else, seeing that the 2 and 3 seeds would all have a semi-home-court advantage in Oakland, and that’s a pretty strong 4 and 5 they have there.

Oakland bracket announced

Surpises:
Gonzaga down to a 3 seed, albeit close to home in Oakland.
Formerly bubblelicious Indiana up to a 6 seed.
UCLA as a 2 seed close to home.

Best first round game, Gonzaga vs. Xavier. Could be a tough matchup for them.

I think this bracket looks pretty easy, at least compared to Atlanta. UCLA is a soft 2 seed.

Utah State, Air Force, George Mason, Seton Hall, all IN.

Looking bad for Michigan, Florida State, Hofstra, possibly Cinci, maybe even Missouri State.

As a UConn fan, I LOVE that bracket.

Washington D.C. Bracket announced.

Surprises:
Illinois all the way down to a 4 seed.
Utah State gets in.
Air Force gets in. :eek:
Tennessee as a 2 seed

Best first game, Kentucky vs. UAB. Washington vs. USU is my early 5-12 upset prediction.

Possible rematch of last years championship and 3 of the four final four teams in one bracket. This bracket is really loaded, best so far. I think the Illini got screwed.