We’re about 16 and a half hours from the opening tip and I’m getting a woody.
Here’s a interesting exerpt from ESPN’s Daily Quickie
*Originally Posted by Dan Shanoff
The Lead Item
Two Words For You:
SWEET. SIXTEEN.
Talk about suffering Madness: I will insanely boldly go where no NCAA Tournament prognosticator has gone before.
A 16 seed will beat a No. 1 seed.
This year.
In the history of the men’s NCAA Tournament, it has never happened. It’s like the first rule of bracket-picking: The 16 never beats the No. 1. Period. Oh-for-history.
But when the brackets were announced Sunday night, I had a gut reaction when I saw Friday’s pair of 1-seed Memphis and 16-seed Oral Roberts:
Upset. (Sorry: U-P-S-E-T!!!)
History, sanity and propriety all insist that I couldn’t be more wrong. I was too timid to put it in my original projections. But I’ve changed my mind. It will happen. I want it to happen. And so do you.
The ultimate upset in sports.
I don’t want it to happen because then I can say I was right (well, sort of); I want it to happen because it would be so unforgettably refreshing:
In a tournament field that most people – fans and experts alike – think will be dominated by UConn, Duke and Nova, nothing would be as shocking or unprecedented, perhaps in all of sports, as 16 toppling 1.
Mid-major guru Kyle Whelliston didn’t scoff at me. In fact, he gave me a couple talking points that back my pick with more than just “gut” and wishful thinking:
*ORU has better offensive stats in FG pct, 3PT pct, points per shot and effective FG pct – even though Memphis cruised through C-USA.
*ORU fouls less than Memphis does (21.6-20.4) and has better FT pct (70.8-68.4). If they can keep it close, it’s winnable at the line.
*ORU’s big guys are actually bigger and bulkier (avg: 6-9, 243 lbs) than Memphis’ bigs (avg: 6-8, 231 lbs).
*“Expect a Miracle”: That’s what it says on ORU’s home floor. Could that be any more appropriate?
And here’s one more detail: They’re playing the game in Dallas, a short drive from from Tulsa, in front of an audience that includes Arkansas fans who hate Memphis with lust. The arena atmosphere will be favorable to ORU.
You can dub it a “Memph-dis,” but I originally had the Tigers going out in the Sweet 16 to Kansas anyway. Memphis went from not even in the tournament last year to being a 1-seed this year; I don’t think they can handle it. I’m not alone: They’re everyone’s pick to be the No. 1 seed to fold early.
Um, just not this early.
In the grand scheme of my bracket picks, this kind of 16-over-1 upset call isn’t even worth that many points. But it transcends pool position.*
I have to admit, it’s a reasonably compelling argument. It’s at least reasonable to consider it possible and enjoy imagining watching it on TV. The game is at 2:50 ET Friday on CBS and you can bet I’ll be focusing on this one at the bar…