I know there’s an ongoing college basketball thread, but since it’s bracket time I thought the tourney deserved it’s own real estate.
Who are your upset specials? I hear a lot of chatter about Sienna and Cornell, but I like San Diego St. as an 11, and UTEP as a 12.
For upsets, in the standard 5-12 upset I like either UTEP or Utah St. For Cinderellas I guess I like Siena out of a weak South region and I think New Mexico will go deep if a 3 can be a Cinderella. Other than that as a general rule it seems like a weak overall tourney this year.
Final Four? I guess I’ll go Kansas, Syracuse, New Mexico/WVU and Villanova. Nothing less than a 3 in the Final Four as the lower seeds and at-larges don’t seem very impressive.
I like WV in the East too, but I just don’t know if they can match Kentucky’s talent.
I think Kansas has a pretty good shot at just walking into the championship. I’m a Kentucky fan and it seems to me like the East is an absolute monster. I don’t trust Syracuse and in my opinion, that’s pretty much it as far as legitimate title contenders based on the regular season. So Kansas seems a really easy pick as far as a winner.
Upsets - the funny thing about Cornell is that as a 12 seed they seem really attractive because of how badly they got screwed on the seeding. They’re good enough to be like a 4 seed, and that’s probably why you hear so much about them. The thing is, Temple’s that good, too. Should be a very interesting game and whichever team comes out of that matchup could be a danger to the rest of the teams in that region, Kentucky included. On the flip side, though, I think if Kentucky and WVU are the two who come out of it, Kentucky beats them 75% of the time. Every game they win in this tournament Kentucky will get much harder to beat, I think, so I’d say the most likely team to knock them out is Texas, then Temple or Cornell, and then Kansas.
I think Richmond could beat Villanova in round 2, which would be a massive upset, and if they pull that off they could make a serious run at that region. I’ll take a flier on Murray State over Vandy. Siena-Purdue is a weird one because Siena’s not as good as they have been recently, and Purdue just isn’t really very tough without Hummel, so on the one hand it’d be an upset because you’d expect Purdue to be the better team, but not because they’re a real top ten team. Either way I don’t think Siena has a Cinderella tournament in them.
I love posting in these threads so I can come back later and see how authoritatively I delivered my terrible predictions.
Yeah the 'Cats are talented, but somehow I get the feeling that they are one of the vulnerable 1 seeds. Just a gut thing.
I hear you. Every year I’m sure my bracket is perfect. Every year I wind up saying to myself, “how in the world did you pick those teams!”
Ahh, I expect to get 60% wrong. The only thing that really gets me are the close games where I lose a team that I’ve picked to make a run, even though I expected a really close game. I’m looking at you, Boston College vs. Pacific overtime game where I would have looked like a genius because nobody had Pacific.
For me, Kentucky is the one I’m not trusting for some reason. I don’t really have anythign to base it on except for gut. Both losses were to teams taht that they trounced in the next outing (SC they beat by 20 in the rematch and UT they beat by 30 in the tourney.) Kinda like they let up a bit against inferior teams and exact a pounding in the rematch when embarrassed. Problem is that there is no rematch if they let up in the Big Dance. That’s not a GREAT reason, but it’s just that feeling that Cousins and Wall ,and Calipari KNOW they are significantly better than their opponents and the concentration isnt always there. That can be real dangerous in the tournament.
I think 'Nova gets by Richmond but in that region who really cares, cuz it sucks big time. There isn’t a team in there that scares me at all. Siena ain’t great, but the best of the lower seeds in a horrible region. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a 12-13 matchup coming out of Spokane.
Right. I agree 100% but I don’t know if I have the guts to put it on my brackets. Richmond could be a legitimate Final Four team and it’s a shame that Saint Mary’s has to go up against them.
Staying with just the South bracket, Purdue is done and not a serious threat to do anything having lost star forward Robbie Hummel in late February. They won’t make it beyond round two.
Say what you want about Duke but here they are again. They shook off that mid-season slow spot and rallied for the ACC regular season title, won the ACC tournament and have looked sharp of late (save a loss in College Park against my Terps.) Kryzewski divides the season into three parts: regular season, ACC tournament and NCAA’s and Duke looks poised to make another deep run.
I might put Richmond going through to the regional finals and then actually beating Duke to go to the Final Four. If they pull it off and I have the cojones to include it on my bracket, I’d look like a genius –a genius, I tell you.
Trouble is, I’m much more inclined to go with the chalk and list the unimaginative pick of Duke advancing to the Final Four settling once again for the safe bet.
And that’s why I never win the office pool. (And forget about putting in more than one bracket as some do—the idea just doesn’t sit right with me.)
I like how you said this and then immediately gave good reasons not to trust them besides just your gut.
I don’t trust Kentucky either. Part of it is coaching, in that Calipari isn’t enough of a system coach to have a bunch of freshmen – especially a bunch of goofball freshmen like he’s got – ready to be favorites in the NCAA Tournament without a lot of bumps along the way, and the SEC tournament showed the bumps aren’t gone yet. Even within the context of a single game they’ll often go way up and then have long lapses, like you said.
Plus they can’t really shoot and don’t run an offense, which is fine when you get 20 runouts and you have 4 or 5 lottery picks on the court. I think any team that can take care of the ball, play a disciplined zone, and rebound has a decent chance of beating them. Teams that advance in the tournament tend to be able to do those things.
On the other hand, they have the ability to completely overwhelm any team in the country – literally any team – on the right night, and like you also said, it does say something about them that they had enough of what a coach would call ‘pride’ to keep from allowing letdowns to turn into losses for the most part, and not to let the same thing happen twice. I just can’t think of a team that played this sloppily that didn’t get beaten because of it, so if they win it’s probably going to have to be because they just have more talent than any other team has had (which, not knowing how good Orton and Liggins and Miller can be down the road, might end up the case).
On an unrelated note, Kansas State is really really good and I’d love to see them get another crack at Kansas.
As an SU fan, I am scared shitless of K-State. Watched that match up with Texas… and was very impressed. They are a team that will also let down on a game against a lower tiered team (ISU… at home?). Plus, they’ve also already lost three teams to KU.
Frankly, I was just jazzed to see that both FSU and UNLV made the brackets. Both teams had good season but botched their conference tourneys. I’m hoping that at least one of them can make it past the first round.
Definitely seems to be some weird bracketing this year. Kansas is supposedly the #1 overall seed, yet their region of 16 seems stronger than any of the others (Ohio St, Georgetown, Maryland, plus the only two teams that beat Kansas this year, Tennesee and Oklahoma State).
I was thinking before the bracket that the teams I liked were Kansas, Kentucky, WVU and Ohio State, but 2 of each are in the same region. Duke’s region looks fairly weak. Baylor’s the chic pick, but Duke might just end up winning it (despite being Duke). Syracuse has injury troubles.
I “officially” (on my contest brckets) picked 3 of your 4, but couldn’t quite pull the trigger on SDSU. I also have Murray State in the Sweet 16, as well as St. Mary’s. I’m sure they won’t all pan out, but there are a lot of potential upsets this year
Joe
If Kentucky meets Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen (good chance if you go by seeding), and Wisco is shooting decently, then UK will lose. Wisconsin is a highly disciplined, take care of the ball, strong defense Bo Ryan coached set of upper classmen that will frustrate the youngsters of Kentucky.
Baylor after beating Villanova in the third round.
I know I am right because this site NCAA Random Bracket Picker told me so.
My bracket is still getting the finer points worked out, so I expect to keep checking back on this thread.
I agree that Kansas by far has the hardest region. This is especially a bummer for me because my school (Maryland) gets caught in the crossfire. Nonetheless, I think Kansas is pretty much THE team this year, so if they can get past an erratic but IMO stacked Georgetown, they’ll be playing in the final.
I like WVU to go pretty far. I thought they should’ve been a 1 seed, anyway, though.
Other thoughts:
Louisville is a dangerous 9.
Some of the lesser ACC teams’ presence in the tournament is somewhat baffling.
Someone’s got to beat Duke before the Final Four, right? It’s too bad they have such a relatively weak bracket. Baylor? Texas A&M? A lot of people like Louisville, but my dad is a Cal fan so I think I need to pick them instead. Man, what a lackluster region.
I know it’s popular to dislike Duke, but they have 3 very good players that can carry them far. That being said, I picked Baylor to knock them off.
I don’t think your opinion on Calipari holds water. He’s been saying over and over and over all season long that he keeps reminding his team that they aren’t as good as they think they are. Could be a typical coaching ploy, but he’s been remarkably consistent about that. He’s a seasoned coach and I’m quite certain he’s aware of the double-edged sword of having a deep, talented bunch of NBA-bound players that are also very raw. UK is the youngest team in the tournament, believe it or not.
Bah. Get your plodding, Big Ten style of play outta here!
UK’s only weakness is inconsistent outside shooting, something that they have overcome all season long (outside of their meager two losses) with incredibly dominant inside play. There’s no other team in the country that has the starting frontcourt of the likes of DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson, followed by Orton off the bench, along with spot play by Perry Stevenson.
That’s not even to mention John Wall, with his uncanny ability to pass the ball to his bigs at the last moment for thundering dunks. Or his uncanny ability to drive the lane in impossible traffic for the amazing reverse layup.
UK is good, goddamn good. You don’t lose only two games all season if you aren’t. They can beat anybody.
ETA: underestimate them in your bracket at your peril!