Alessan, do you see either of the following happening:
Right-wing parties saying they would form a coalition with Blue & White or
The Israeli public shifting their trust from the right wing to the left wing?
If neither of those are happening, I don’t see how Likud doesn’t still form the next coalition. Personally, I don’t see either of those happening, but I’m sure I’m not as tuned in to the Israeli street as you are.
The Likud will most likely form the government - but which Likud?
What you’re missing is that Blue and White would be probably willing to enter into a coalition with the Likud - even as the junior member - so long as Netanyahu is not in charge. As would Labor too, I’m guessing, if it keeps the far-right out. Every poll says that a majority of voters want a moderate, center-right coalition. It’s Bibi’s who’s the stumbling block.
The next few weeks will be interesting. I suspect some knives will be coming out.