They take exit polls in “key” precincts which tell the pros how “swing” voters are voting on this night.
If it is close, like it is for the DEMS, they hold off, when it is 5 or 6 points off, then their science is good enough to accurately project a winner (most of the time)
New Hampshire’s plenty important. They are the iron bulwark that shields the rest of America from the grim, weathered hordes of Maine.
Also, there is this, from the Concord Monitor site:
Clinton 6,827, Obama 4,654 in 9 of 12 Manchester wards
Clinton 4,237, Obama 2,755 in 5 of 9 Nashua wards
Just guesstimating, you’d have to expect another 1200-vote gain for Hillary from the rest of Manchester and Nashua.
62%…Hillary +4500
I had CNN on, and they called it for McCain with only like 15% reporting. Granted he was up by 8 or 9 points, but still.
ETA: I also see the Mayor of 9/11 is on course to get twice the share of the vote he had in Iowa.
It just strikes me as bizare that they’ve declared McCain when there is only a difference of 5,500 votes between him and Romney. Granted, there are only 1.2 million people in the state, but there are still enough voters in those unaccounted for 40% to possibly (not probably, but still possibly) swing things. I thought they were less quick to jump the gun after FL in 2000.
You know, that’s a good point. One could suspect that the more the press played that clip of her speaking passionately of how much she cares about this country and what she wants to do to help people, the more voters who saw her moved nearly to tears by that passion, the more a newly humanized and idealistic image of Hillary appealed to them. People could see clearly just how ridiculous the press’s characterization of that moment was, and it would not surprise me to find that some voters were offended by it being used to denigrate her.
I have to say I’ve been lukewarm at best about Hillary for a long time, but after viewing that I had a higher opinion of her.
Hillary/Obama – a runaway winning ticket?
BBC is reporting a McCain win. seems other Republicans have conceded, and McCain has already given his victory speech.
Looks like Hillary for the dems, but not final.
More like 7,700 reported on CNN.
(Obama fan here) This is the kind of response I was fearing from that little crying drama. I won’t go so far as to say that she scripted it, but to change your mind because a person cries…ugh.
-Tofer
My thoughts exactly. I thought she looked very passionate and caring in the clip that I saw. Of course, the media pack jumped on her like she had broken down and started blubbering, which makes the viewing of the actual clip that much more moving.
So who DOES so her hair anyway?
That’s what I’m trying to say. These people aren’t just rolling the dice to see how many people will vote for candidate X. They have exit poll data, taken at specific precincts throughout the state which have historically and scientifically tell these pros who will win.
They compare these numbers with the raw vote totals. When they match (as they did on the GOP side) they call a winner. When they don’t match the data (as they did with the DEMS tonight) they hold out (as they have as of right now) and reevaluate their data…
I wouldn’t go so far as to say she was crying. Choked up a bit at most. I too thought it was stupid how it got played, and am glad that she didn’t get beaten down for it.
The press over-response may well have helped her…
MSNBC just called it for Clinton.
They can’t be sure, but an educated guess can be made based on which town or precinct you’re looking at. If you know from previous elections that TownX is very liberal and that polls suggested that Obama would be ahead by a lot, and the actual vote comes in and he’s only ahead by a little, that suggests that he’s not doing too well. And vice versa.
AP have called it for Clinton as well.
CNN still holding back.
The Associated Press has apparently called the race for Clinton as well. CNN says it’s too close to call, with a lead of close to 6,000 votes for Clinton with some major college towns yet to report.
D’oh!
As did FOX