New poll: Majority of Americans support legalising gay marriage

[leander]

Some very interesting (and IMO fantastic) news:

New poll: Majority of Americans support legalising gay marriage

For the first time, a majority of Americans claim that same-sex marriages should be recognized by law. But despite these gains, the issue remains more divisive than ever before.

A new Gallup poll released on Friday reveals that 53% of Americans believe that gay marriage should be legalized, and that couples who enter into these unions should be provided with the same rights as traditional marriages — a 9% increase from 2010, when only 44% of respondents said that gay marriage should be legal.

The poll, which has tracked attitudes on the subject since 1996 when only 27% of Americans believed that homosexual individuals should be allowed to marry, not only reflects recent gains in gay rights, but also a more accepting viewpoint that’s evolved in American society over the past year.

Here is a tracking graph since 1996(.gif file)

Sadly, this view is not changing amongst Republicans:

But what I find most interesting about the poll is this: While the survey finds a large shift since last year in favor of legal gay marriage among Democrats and independents, the numbers haven’t budged *by even one point *among Republicans.

The poll finds that among Americans overall, the last year saw the largest annual jump yet in support for legalizing gay marriage — it’s up nine points, to 53 percent. Support jumped by double digits among Democrats (from 56 to 69) and among independents (49 to 59). For the first time a majority of independents supports marriage equality.

But among Republicans, support for gay marriage remains mired down at a measly 28 percent — exactly where it was a year ago.

So up for debate: Does this trending change signify we are beyond the point of no return? (Steve Benen suggests that “It’s exceptionally unlikely that trend will ever reverse — civil-rights trajectories simply never move that way.”) Will “Marriage inequality…die out with the older generations” as E.D. Kain suggests? And is this a hill the Republicans are going to fight toothand nailon? If the trends continue, what will be the political ramifications for those who so strongly oppose the measure?

[Measure_for_Measure]

One poll means little. You need to look at a number of polls. Nate Silver did that last month and found that gay marriage opponents are now in minority. (NYT link).

@Nate Silver

But this does put Republicans in a tricky position. Their traditional position on gay marriage is becoming less popular. But to the extent they disengage from the issue, they may lose even more ground. One way to read the trends of the past few years is that we have passed an inflection point wherein it is no longer politically advantageous for candidates to oppose same-sex marriage, which in turn softens opposition to it among the general public, creating a sort of feedback loop and accelerating the trend.

This could evolve into a Democratic wedge issue.

[Naxos]

@leander

[…]
Does this trending change signify we are beyond the point of no return?

[…]

No.

Conservative politics are still winning in inciting hate against minorities of all kinds, with the help of religion.

70% of the US population believes in angels. There’s a long time before this disease is cured.

[leander]

@Measure_for_Measure

One poll means little. You need to look at a number of polls. Nate Silver did that last month and found that gay marriage opponents are now in minority.

Well, I disagree that “one poll means little”, but you’re right I should have pointed out that multiple national polls suggest the same thing.

Interesting comments from Nate Silver. Seems to support the “cannot be stopped” theory…

[New_Deal_Democrat]

This is the kind of issue that has hurt the Democrats since the 1960s. I am glad that it will no longer be that kind of issue.

I would like the courts to stay out of it. Leave it to the state legislatures and the Congress.

Otherwise I do not much care. Gay rights is not my issue.

[Farmer_Jane]

The courts can’t stay out of it. It may be supported by a slim majority, but that majority is not evenly distributed.

[Inner_Stickler]

@New_Deal_Democrat

Otherwise I do not much care. Gay rights is not my issue.

Oh, well by that token women’s rights aren’t my issue and neither are race or poverty problems. But I fight for them because it’s right.

[Budget_Player_Cadet]

It’s about time. There simply are no reasonable, logical arguments against homosexual couples (at least, that couldn’t be applied to various niches of heterosexual couples) in marriage, adoption, and other things. Does this mean that logic is winning out? Maybe in this field, who knows… But yeah, it’s about time that this happened.

[OttoDaFe]

Logic probably has something to do with it, but IMHO there are other elements involved.

For one thing, the Fear Factor seems to have abated: the Almighty has apparently chosen not to smite the states that have legalized SSM and Civil Unions in the years since Massachusetts, which undercuts the fulminations of the Religious Right. Although since the Almighty seems to have very poor aim (given the fact that various pestilences that Pat Robertson called down on Disney World landed on his headquarters instead), we may not have been looking in the right places.

Another is the economy: when people are worried about jobs and their families’ futures, it’s a lot harder to get them riled up about Adam & Steve next door. Especially when it turns out that A&S are a lot more concerned about their futures than some mythical “gay agenda.” I wouldn’t be surprised to see social issues moving closer to the front burner in the public eye as the economy improves (assuming it continues to do so), but in this case, I think the wave has crested. Or at least I can dream. . . .

[Farmer_Jane]

imho, what hurts same-sex marriage proponents is stuff like this.

But when you see likeable people on TV, that, well, are just like you, or see that Adam & Steve are no different than Jane & Tom or whatever, then same-sex marriage becomes a so what? issue instead of omg those sexhsual infedelz.

[Inner_Stickler]

@CitizenPained

imho, what hurts same-sex marriage proponents is stuff like this.

:rolleyes:

For every picture you find from a gay pride parade, I can find one from spring break or mardi gras where straights are acting just as licentious.

[Justin_Bailey]

@CitizenPained

imho, what hurts same-sex marriage proponents is stuff like this.

While I agree with you that a debauched gay pride celebration is probably not what the people fighting for marriage equality want to see, you link to one of the most innocuous pictures out there.

It’s two dudes on a motorcycle. Big deal.

[ultrafilter]

@CitizenPained

imho, what hurts same-sex marriage proponents is stuff like this.

You know you’re rehashing a decade-old Onion article, right?

[Simplicio]

I can’t think of another social issue where public feeling has swung 50 points within my lifetime (late twenties). People may quibble about their methods, but gay-rights advocates have probably effected the biggest change in Americans social views in the last thirty years.

[John_Mace]

It’s irreversible. But it will be a very long time coming in the more conservative states. I can’t see the current SCOTUS ruling it unconstitutional to bad SSM, so it’s going to have be a state by state effort.

[Wendell_Wagner]

I’ve seen a statistical study of all the polls over the years (just in the U.S., I think, but maybe in other parts of the world too) on tolerance towards various gay issues. These polls were not just asking about same-sex marriage, but also about whether homosexuality should be illegal, whether the person being polled would object to a homosexual being their friend, whether they would refuse to talk to a homosexual relative if they came out, whether homosexuals should be able to get various jobs, whether they would vote for an open homosexual, etc. What this study found was that for any given issue, for any given region or state or country as a whole, the percentage of agreement towards more tolerance towards homosexuals has increased by about 1% or 2% per year. This trend has been going on for decades. In general, the increase of agreement was partly because younger age cohorts tended to be more in agreement. In other words, in general, the less tolerant people were dying off and being replaced by more tolerant people.

If it’s really true that Republicans’ views are not slowly changing in the same way and will never change, they will eventually find that their views on homosexuality are wildly different from the average person and this will have a significant effect on how well they do in elections.

Incidentally, I’m only interested in discussing the numbers. I have no interest in discussing whether this is a good thing or a bad thing. You can discuss that among yourselves. For those who are going to object that I used the term “tolerance” in describing the trend, it’s the only term I could think of. I’m not interested in discussing whether it’s good or bad.

[Farmer_Jane]

@ultrafilter

You know you’re rehashing a decade-old Onion article, right?

I didn’t know The Onion had sole ownership of making a point.

…but I don’t read it, so.
Sorry, but gay pride fests is hardly good PR for same-sex marriage.

[Farmer_Jane]

@Wendell_Wagner

Incidentally, I’m only interested in discussing the numbers. I have no interest in discussing whether this is a good thing or a bad thing. You can discuss that among yourselves. For those who are going to object that I used the term “tolerance” in describing the trend, it’s the only term I could think of. I’m not interested in discussing whether it’s good or bad.

Yeah, unfortunately you don’t get to control how it goes.

[Implicit]

@Wendell_Wagner

If it’s really true that Republicans’ views are not slowly changing in the same way and will never change, they will eventually find that their views on homosexuality are wildly different from the average person and this will have a significant effect on how well they do in elections.

I wonder if those who are intolerant to gay rights have gravitated to the Republican party and vice versa and that’s why the numbers aren’t shifting, or if somehow the Republicans have created a force field that insulates them from shifting societal values?

[Farmer_Jane]

@Inner_Stickler

:rolleyes:

For every picture you find from a gay pride parade, I can find one from spring break or mardi gras where straights are acting just as licentious.

But that’s not the majority of America. And most Americans don’t look at Mardi Gras and think, “Oh yes. That’s the example I want to set for my children.”