JC, I’ve looked over the rather thin pool of Congressional elections in the sixth year of a Presidency, and I just have to say, there’s no ‘there’ there.
Well, OK, there’s a track record on the GOP side, due to their amazing ability to fuck up in office. On their side, you’ve got 2006, 1986, 1974, and 1958 in the post-WWII era. Post-Katrina Bush, Iran-Contra, Nixon Resigns, and hell, even Sherman Adams.
On the Dem side, you’ve got 1998 and, what, 1950? I suppose you could count 1966, but the Johnson and Kennedy presidencies were such different things that it’s hard for me to buy into it.
When you’ve only got one data point in the past 60 years and it’s a counterexample to the pattern, the pattern in question isn’t a pattern.
The public memory is usually not very long but the Republicans have been building this reputation for a few years now, I think the shutdown provides a clear example of this obstructionism that people will remember a year from now. If we see more incidents like this anytime next year, I think it could significantly affect the outcome of the election.
But, considering how many “true believers” there are running around in Congress right now, I think there’s a non-zero chance that many could campaign on their being responsible for the shutdown.
I believe it could happen, and could have an impact.
You’re like a bot that selectively searches out tiny stories that look even slightly advantageous to the Republican sides. Call us when they actually show some improvement in the voting booth from the last few elections.
Apparently, you missed the citation! That there is your Real Clear Politics, which specializes in polls that are not biased and skewed towards the liberal media’s lies and misrepresentations. That’s why its “Real Clear” and not “Foggy Bullshit” like those other guys. Just the sort of thing that supports and underscore’s friend **adaher’**s consistent record of prognostication. Say what you will about the accuracy, his record is consistent, and that’s what counts!
I meant the RCP polls he linked to favor Udall across the board. I have no idea who he is, so I have no idea if they are more or less favorable than any other average.
Those are Quinnipiac polls, which are quite reliable, and they show Udall only ahead by a little bit, in a race where no one knew he was anything but safe. Michigan is now also in play, with the Democrat leading by only 1 point and Rick Snyder looking safe.
Meanwhile, CBS news has the President’s approval rating at 37% and the health law now at -30 approval(31-61).
It’s becoming clear that this a far bigger problem than the shutdown.
I have predicted no such thing yet. It’s too early to tell. I’m only observing the current damage, which means precisely nothing unless it continues to be an issue for the next year.
That being said, polls in Nov. 2009 showed very dangerous trends as well for Democrats, and it ended up being as bad as it looked, because the issues remained the same in Nov. 2010.
In related news, Paul Ryan said today that Republicans will not be attaching any conditions to the next debt ceiling bill. So yes, they are learning. Are Democrats?