Sweet, republicans would lose the house if the elections were held today

Politics & Elections
1

Of course they aren’t, and voters have short memories. So I don’t really expect them to lose the house in 2014. But a PPP study found the GOP losing in 21 house races against a democrat.

Plus the study was funded by Moveon.org, and I don’t know if they looked at all 435 districts, it doesn’t seem like it. They seem like they just focused on the swing districts (I have no idea if they focused on the slightly blue swing districts or just the slightly red ones).

But that would be awesome. Well, not really because the democrats would still be outclassed in the senate. But if the GOP couldn’t keep the house even with a gerrymandered extra 20-30 seats that would be interesting to watch the fallout of that.

The Tea Party is the gift that keeps on giving. They’ve cost the GOP about 6 senate seats so far, and they may (but probably won’t) cost them the house. Plus in 2016 they will assume the reason they lost the presidency in 2008 and 2012 is because they were too moderate by electing McCain and Romney in the primaries, so they may go far right in 2016.

2

From your own cite, they surveyed 24 Republican-controlled districts, and 17 showed the Democrat leading. In another 4, the Democrat led after pollees were told that their representative voted to shutdown the government.

That’s pretty good. I hope this lights a little bit of a fire under the (more) moderate Republicans.

There are a couple of things, though, that the survey doesn’t say, but which it invites us to conclude: there are no Democratic-held districts that would flip, and that the districts that they surveyed were probably the swing districts. I wonder how true those two assumptions are.

ETA: no specific Democrat was specified in the polls, so this is against the proverbial “generic Democrat.”

3

I miss 538 and look forward anxiously to its reboot specifically for a critical analysis of polls like this. I suspect Nate would be a bit dismissive of concluding too much from these numbers. Assume it is true your moderate Republican is still likely even more worried about being primaried than they are about the general so I am not so sure how much it will motivate anyone. The issue is whether or not they can find their spines and place love of country above fear of being primaried.

4

I agree completely that some more critical analysis of these polls would be great. But if you’re a Republican representing one of these 21 districts, while before you might have been concerned only with a primary from the right, now you clearly have to fear losing the general. How they weigh those two fears will probably vary subtly from district to district, but this is the first time I’ve seen that there really is fear for those representatives in the general, and is why I think the poll is at least prima facie good news.

5

If these individuals are true to their words - they are only in it for this one thing, and reelection won’t matter.

Now, to the party…

6

I think this is the most interesting piece from this poll, since it shows that the government shutdown is a significant issue that is having a negative effect on the Republicans. Yeah, it’s against a generic opponent, but that’s true both before and after this piece of information was given, which should at least somewhat control for that.

7

The poll is pretty useless for reasons already posted. Even the article itself is at least more realistically grounded than the OP-- the linked article’s title says “could” not “would”. This reminds me of people who were convinced Romney would beat Obama because they were focused on flawed polls that reinforced their political preferences.

8

Let me live in my fantasy world.

9

The poll is useful in that it shows how damaging the shutdown is for Republicans. But it’s also 2013, and by 2014, health care, guns, and immigration could be bigger issues.

10

Or, health care might not be much of an issue at all. Moms who sleep better at night knowing that their kids have health insurance, how many of them, do you think, will vote to have that taken away, or will vote for the people who tried to? The kids themselves, how many of them. How many people know somebody or actually are somebody who has a precondition, and now can get some sort of security? How many of them, do you think, will vote for the party that would take that away, would vote for them in order to protect their 2nd Amendment rights? Would you rather have a liver or a gun?

Meanwhile, Mr and Mrs Normal America go right ahead pretty much as they always have. ObamaCare, it turns out, is not Chthulu, or even Stalin. I know people who have been shafted by the insurance “provider”, bet you do too. Who doesn’t? People can be pretty decent so long as it doesn’t cost them too much. They will vote for decent, if it doesn’t cost them too much.

Republicans aren’t afraid of the dreadful disaster to befall helpless Americans by way of ObamaCare, they didn’t care before, why would anyone believe they care now? What they are afraid of is that it will work.

And why would it work? Because people have been studying health care and its costs for decades. Literally. Entire academic careers have been spent, studying. Studying how other systems do it, seeing the pitfalls, counting the beans, making the spreadsheets. (When I was in high school, debate team, our topic for that year was…single payer. I cut rather a good figure by kerosene light, but I digress…) Years of study. What do you think, they just threw it together over a weekend?

There is a very good chance this will work. And that is what they are afraid of. And if it does, all those people who are better off, they are going to rise up in their fury and vote against the Dems? Because of what? Gay marriage? Black helicopters? Obama is soft on Communism?

Last election, when the artificial fear of ObamaCare was at its peak, the Republicans still got a million votes less for the House. Without that fear, what have they got to sell?

ETA: Forgot. Big government. Yeah, that’ll do it. They can run against Big Government.

11

If ACA works, more power to the Democrats. It will still be a big issue, it’ll just be a big issue that works against the Republicans.

So far though, even with many ACA provisions already in effect, the law has become LESS popular. And the provisions in effect now were the most uncontroversial ones.

12

And with the ObamaCare scam website coming online, people are beginning to find out what this scam is really going to cost them. Those who were foolish enough to believe that they were going to get “affordable” healthcare are in for a huge shock.

It’ll soon be clear enough which side of this dispute is fighting for the interests of the American people, and which side is just fighting for bigger, more burdensome government.

13

Hey, at least now you get maternity care, and you only have to pay $100/month more!

14

Yes, well, I was talking to a woman earlier who said that her insurance has gone from $80 a month for just her son to $65 a month for her son, her daughter and her all together. I don’t think it’s great coverage but it’s a damn sight better than what they had before.

So, you know…anecdotes.

15

So what you’re saying is this poll is absolutely useful and 100% true, given your previous track record on commentary on polls, correct?

16

After you unskew it, that is.

17

Where do you guys come from? Obamacare scam? Burdensome government? Jesus Christ, you’d think the U.S government was running around pillaging, looting, and burning towns and municipalities across large swaths of the country. I put the following in italics as if it were flashing, neon lights: the government is not coming to get you.

18

Apparently, some Republican/Tea Party congressmen are going to beprimaried from the left.

19

There are many conservatives/Republicans who honestly believe the government *is *coming to get them. The IRS, the FBI, the NSA…they honestly believe they’re fucked. That’s why they’re acting with such desperation right now; they feel cornered and they’re trying to survive what they believe is a hostile government.

From the focus group report I linked to:

Desperate vicious governance isn’t going to look good to your average voter. Good thing these cornered dogs were able to gerrymander in 2010, otherwise they’d be relatively wiped out by 2014.

20

That is to say, from their immediate left, which is still pretty far to the right.