New York State Primary

So, we’ve come to the end of primary season for 2018. I’ve got to say that New York has some screwy election laws. Remember that primary that AOC won back in June? That was only for federal offices. Today, on a Thursday, they’re voting for statewide candidates.

Two races of note. Cynthia Nixon seems to have flamed out badly in her attempt to defeat incumbent governor Andrew Cuomo. But, we’ll have to see when the votes are counted. I expect Cuomo to crush her. Yes, the ‘progressives’ in Brooklyn whine incessantly about Cuomo, but Nixon seems to be a bridge too far for most of this heavily Democratic state.

The attorney general race is also getting a lot of attention as the holder of that office will be able to cause Trump and his businesses a life of Hell. It’s a 3 way race with Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney, Bernie Bro favorite Zephyr Teachout (who won the endorsement of the NYT) and NYC Public Advocate Letitia James (who won Cuomo’s endorsement)

A three way race held on a Thursday primary is impossible to predict. I’m hoping Maloney pulls it out, he’s done a good job in Congress.

I don’t love Cuomo but I expect him to win (not sure who I’d vote for – I probably slightly prefer Nixon on the issues, but I’m not sure if I’m okay with a zero-experience governor, especially of such a large and diverse state). As for the AG, I’d probably vote for Teachout, but I wouldn’t be unhappy with any of them.

I voted for Cuomo. It was a no-brainer. I don’t want an amateur as governor, and as far as I can tell Nixon never left the five boroughs to campaign; since I live about halfway to Albany that’s kind of a deal breaker for me.

I was very torn in the AG race. I would find any of the four (there are actually four, not three) broadly acceptable in that role, though I still blame Teachout for running a very poor campaign in 2016 and losing a winnable seat in the district just down the road. Maloney is my congressional rep and I like him a lot in that position, which makes me want to vote for him for AG (hey, it’s what he wants and he’d do it well) but also makes me want him to lose so he’ll stay where he is.

I woke up this morning intending to vote for James. But later on we were watching TV and a horrible attack commercial came on, with the sole purpose of tearing Maloney down…it didn’t even mention another candidate (paid for by the Working Families party). I found it so offensive and obnoxious that my parochial instincts kicked in and I voted Maloney. I guess negative ads can backfire after all.

I’ll be interested to see who wins the AG race though…

Cuomo is an incompetent crook who represents the very worst of politics, so it’s a shame that there wasn’t any more robust opposition to him. It would be nice to see him go down in a surprise defeat tonight, but…what next? I’m rooting for Zephyr Teachout in the AG race but Maloney isn’t terrible either.

I’m more interested in whether any members of the former IDC (Independent Democratic Conference) get run out of the Senate.

No, the very worst of politics is the incompetent amateur who thinks of him- or herself as smarter about politics and government than everyone else. See the current president, or Cuomo’s opposition in this primary.

My county executive is the Republican candidate. He’s a decent guy and not a looney tune, and he knows what he’s doing. I’d have to consider (even if only briefly) voting for him if Nixon wins the primary.

Yeah, no, he isn’t. That’s just lazy republican talking points, but it’s a fact-free accusation.

There are a lot of “worst” things in politics, like know-nothings running for office. Nixon and Trump, for example.

Cuomo crushes Nixon even in Brooklyn and Manhattan.

AG race showing James with a 45% lead, Teachout with 30%, and Maloney with 22%

OTOH, progressives won some victories further downballot, sending most if not all of the “Independent Democratic Conference” (“Democrats” who allied with Republicans to give them control of the state legislature despite the Democratic majority) packing.

Why would Republicans be against him? He’s the only thing they’ve got going in New York! He put Republicans in power, deliberately, so he could look like a moderate for the presidential run he was sure he would make eventually. Hopefully that bubble is popped, at least.

Anyways, the statewide results are a sewer up and down the ticket, but that was to be expected with such a weak candidate running against Cuomo, and the cannibalism in the AG race (and really, I have to wonder how many more times Zephyr Teachout can be the next great thing; I like her, but jeesh). But importantly, Cuomo’s Republican IDC buddies are gone.

I think we can definitely say that Zephyr Teachout should focus her time on being a law professor or else seek out an appointed government position. She’s been rejected decisively three times.

I do think it’s fascinating that Nixon is winning about a dozen counties upstate, and nowhere else, despite being so NYC-centric in her campaign and chosen issues. I wonder what a more…comprehensive candidate could have done. Oh well.

A pretty weak Tweet from AOC thanking all the losing candidates. Too bad she didn’t mention the dead horse about moving the window.

Most of those counties are quite small. She’s counted as having won Lewis County with just 264 votes. Fulton, Columbia, Greene, Schoharie…these are not large places either. You can win them all day and it won’t make a difference.

Saratoga, Schenectady, and especially Albany are considerably bigger, but she didn’t win any of them by much. Her margin of victory in Albany Coiunty appears to be 200 votes. Looks like her biggest percentage win was in Tompkins (Ithaca, so not a surprise), but her 56.6% translates into a margin of only about a thousand votes. You can win these all day too and if these are your margins it also won’t make a difference.

My upstate-ish county, which is more populous than any of these save Albany, went for Cuomo almost 2 to 1 (okay, 63-37). Cuomo’s margin of victory in my county was about a thousand votes greater than Nixon’s total margin of victory in all the counties where she finished first. One not especially enormous county more than wipes out Nixon’s entire lead elsewhere.

Winning this particular group of counties by such narrow margins is pretty much meaningless.

Looks like a very bad day for the IDC. Good.

While Nixon lost big, she successfully pushed Cuomo to the left on many issues.

Yeah, they lost 6 NY Senate seats to Dems who will actually caucus and vote with the Dems. :slight_smile:

He doesn’t have to stay there for the general, and certainly not for his next term.

Not necessarily true, AIUI. If the Dems swing just a couple Republican seats, NY will have a Democratic controlled legislature in 2019. That will force Cuomo to take stands on more progressive legislation than he’s had to so far, and he’ll have to make starker choices about which voters he wants to piss off; he won’t be able to stay as purple as he likes. I’m betting he’ll go bluer rather than redder.

Turns out the loss was due to high voter turnout, which is an undesirable result of campaign spending:

Dumb memo from Nixon’s campaign team. I think they wanted to dig at Cuomo more than they wanted to celebrate the high turnout. In any case, their observation of the effects seems lucid*, but their analysis of the causes seems a bit weak. Nixon herself showed better message discipline and better electoral process support in her remarks.

*Except for the ‘reduced polling hours upstate’ effect, which could not in reality have been a credibly decisive factor.

There’s something wrong with your link on Nixon, try this one.

My wife was talking to somebody from Albany who guaranteed her that Cuomo would lose Albany county. I guess they really hate him there. He lost all the surrounding counties as well.

Progressives need to take two giant lessons to heart. 1) the last thing anybody wants today is an amateur who knows nothing of real-world politics. 2) Medicare for all and other social program promises are likely winners in the long run, but saying implement them first and then we’ll figure out how to pay for them - a Nixon actually did - is a losing proposition. See 1).