Obama is winning Marion County by 60,000 votes right now (at 98% reporting). Marion County has the same racial demographics as Lake County but Lake has half the population. If Obama copies his performance there, he’ll gain 30,000 votes – but he’s trailing right now by 40,000.
It’s possible but it’d be reeeaaalllyyy tight.
Well…to be fair if I were her strategist I’d have played it that way. If you have no intention of giving up then play the game and this is not totally bogus.
Hillary as always showed her touch of crass. Even if she pulls out Indiana, which she may well do, it is by no means anywhere near what she needed tonight. And she still is talking “Day One” and how the oil companies are going to pay the gas tax this summer. Un-believeable. I look for the superdelegates to start to board the train Wednesday and her advisors will talk her into a graceful exit before the week is out.
It was a reference to something Obama said a few weeks ago – that HRC would probably win PA, he would probably win NC and (something to the effect of) “I guess Indiana will be the tiebreaker.” I don’t remember the context, but I think he was really just talking about momentum (and trying not to sound cocky), but she seized on it to claim a victory of sorts.
Monroe (Indiana University) is splitting 65-35 for Obama right now, with just over 50% reporting. The vote count is about 6,500-3,500.
So, if the percentage continues to hold, it’ll end up about 13k-7k, which closes the gap a bit more. Not enough, but a bit.
I finally got off my ass and looked it up: 876,00 for Marion; 484,000 for Lake - 55% of Marion’s population. 180,000 voted in Marion, so let’s assume the same proportion of turnout for Lake = 99,000. Obama picks up 33,000 and loses by just more than the entire population of the also outstanding Union County. 
It’s not strategy or spin… it just does not make any sense to me.
Clinton claims a win in the Hoosier State in Indianapolis speech.
“Tonight we’ve come from behind, we’ve broken the tie, and thanks to you it’s full speed on to the White House!”
Bottom line? She will end the night over 180,000 down in the popular vote, and further behind in delegates.
I hope so. But unless enough get on board to guarantee an Obama win even if Florida and Michigan are seated I expect she will fight through that at least.
Question: If John Edwards throws in for Obama does Obama get his delegates? Do Edwards delegates still have to vote for Edwards on their first vote at the convention? After the first vote, if there is no winner, are the obliged to vote how Edwards directs them on subsequent votes?
MSNBC is saying that the results aren’t in yet from the two universities in Monroe County.
If Obama pulls this out, it’ll be one for the books.
(can’t edit)
thanks **Diogenes the Cynic **
That’s some powerful spin she’s got going there! 500rpm I’d calculate.
You’re 100% right. It is spin. But spin is the game.
If she intends to stay in the race (as seems obvious) then waiting would only hurt her. Make your speech when you still had something like a lead worth talking about.
Yeah, it is misleading but I would expect any politician, including Obama, to have played it that way.
The joys of American politics.
If it’s 65-35 BEFORE counting the universities, I’d be very surprised if they don’t push it (even more) significantly his way.
Delegates are released after the first ballot, and could certainly wind up nominating someone else entirely: Al Gore, for instance. Or Al Sharpton. Or Alf Landon, who hasn’t run lately, come to think of it.
Why is this taking so long?
This question has come up here before, and I believe it was determined that they have to cast their fisrt vote for Edwards (really just a formality), but then they are effectively free agents after that. They can vote for whoever they want. Edwards can encourage them to vote for a particular candidate but they aren’t bound by him. Basically, they become supers.
Gotcha.
But the delegates are literally Edwards people. Presumably they have some allegiance. Historically in cases like this do delegates generally follow the will of their candidate or will they truly become loose cannons and it is anyone’s guess?
The story is that there are great quantities of absentee ballots and they needed to bring in extra help to count them.
nm
I like this commentator on CNN who keeps suggesting this resembles like old-fashioned Chicago vote fraud. “Not that I’m suggesting that,” he adds.
:rolleyes:
Listening to CNN feed on the internet but I missed that.
Vote fraud? What vote fraud? Where? What? Who?
Huh?