Next up: Indiana and North Carolina

[E-Sabbath]

You know… I say 8 for Obama in NC, 49-51 in IN, and I can’t say which way.

[RTFirefly]

Get yer red-hot polls right here!

Suffolk has Clinton up by 6 in IN; Insider Advantage has Obama up by 3 in NC. A couple of days ago, I noted here that Insider Advantage had been quite close to the mark in TX and PA; ditto for Suffolk in OH and PA.

Zogby has Obama up by 8 in NC and up by 2 in IN. They nailed TX and PA, but called OH a dead heat.

The CBS/NYT poll showing Obama up by 11 nationally is countered by a USA Today/Gallup poll showing Clinton up by 7. Which in turn disagrees with Gallup’s tracking poll, which has Obama up by 4. Meanwhile, the Rasmussen tracker says they’re tied.

It’s worth noting that the Gallup tracker was (a) taken over the same time period as the USA Today-Gallup poll, and (b) has a much larger sample than the USA Today-Gallup poll, by a margin of 1267 to 516. And the CBS/NYT poll’s sample size was a puny 283.

For awhile, I’ve been pretty much going with the Gallup tracker with respect to Obama-Clinton nationally, and using other polls (including the Rasmussen tracker) as reinforcement, or pointing to the likely direction of any error. I think I’ll stick with that approach for now.

[Phlosphr]

Got a prediction for us RT?

[RTFirefly]

@Phlosphr

Got a prediction for us RT?

Clinton by 7 in IN, Obama by 5 in NC.

[Phlosphr]

Thanks - I’m holding out for a squeaker in Obama’s favor in IN.

[BobLibDem]

I think Obama has bounced up a bit since the Wright frenzy II has faded. I think Hillary made an unforced error in her gas tax scheme, I believe more people will see it as pandering than will see her as the savior from gas prices. That and the Iran obliteration mark will cost her some votes.

NC: Obama by 5
IN: Hillary by 5

I would not rule out a sweep by either candidate. If they split the doubleheader, then I expect Obama will catch up in superdelegates before Friday. If Hillary sweeps, then I think the fight becomes even. If Obama sweeps, the game is over.

[Liberal]

Her photo ops have been mismanaged too, I believe. The spectacle of her watching someone pump gas, after which she drives away with a caravan of SUVs, was a real hoot.

[Santo_Rugger]

The best part, IMHO, is that if they happen to have the same margin of victory while splitting states, Obama still comes out ahead. For example, using BobLibDem’s numbers, if they win respective states by 5, Obama will come out with more net delegates tomorrow simply because NC has more to offer. Also, if that happens, she’ll need an even higher percentage of the remaining pledged delegates to pull even. Heck, it may go up to 100% (hyperbole, of course, as it’s already at 80).

[Shayna]

Indiana & North Carolina Newspapers Endorse Barack Obama

On the last Sunday before the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, four more newspapers announced their endorsement of Barack Obama. In Indiana, the Muncie Star Press, the Gary Post-Tribune, and the Louisville Courier-Journal (which has a large southern Indiana readership) all endorsed Barack. In North Carolina, the Charlotte Observer called Tuesday’s upcoming Democratic primary “a time for change”

[DSeid]

Wow Bob … on a new antidepressant? That’s so … optimistic!

[BobLibDem]

@DSeid

Wow Bob … on a new antidepressant? That’s so … optimistic!

That was before I read this.

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Really interesting dynamics at play here. Clinton has increased her lead among white voters to 58% - very close to the 60% plus level needed to pull off a victory. She now leads among those who say they are Democrats but has started to trail among Unaffiliated voters, who are allowed to participate in Tuesday’s election. Additionally, African-American voters are not quite as solid with Obama as they have been, at least based on previous exit polls. Clinton has remained in the upper teens (17%) of African-American support in our recent surveys. African-American turnout will be the key to this race. Our poll is based on a turnout model of 35% African-American vote. Anything under that number could give Clinton a shocking upset. But Indiana has become a true horserace that should concern the Clinton camp.”

Now I’m worried again. The new pills aren’t helping that much.

[Liberal]

Setting aside the fact that IA is almost always an outlier poll, nothing has changed since before NC/Indiana when people pointed out that Hillary needs mountainous landslides in the rest of the primaries to take a majority of delegates to the nomination. Margin of error ties don’t help her.

[tds1273]

@Liberal

Her photo ops have been mismanaged too, I believe. The spectacle of her watching someone pump gas, after which she drives away with a caravan of SUVs, was a real hoot.

God how I wish the guy she was riding along with spoke up with a “Hurry up with the photo-op lady, I’m late for work!”

Anyway, I’ll call IN for Hillary at 3%, and NC for Obama at 5%, and on and on and on it goes…

[RTFirefly]

@Liberal

the fact that IA is almost always an outlier poll

Huh? I’ve already noted that they were very close to the mark in TX and PA. They called IA 34-33-32 O-E-C, which was the actual order of finish. Their last SC poll was nearly 2 weeks ahead of the primary, but its 10-point margin for Obama was hardly an outlier at the time. Their Virginia poll, about 5 days before voting, was right in line with what Rasmussen and M-D had at the time.

I don’t know much about them, and their NC polling may be off the mark for all I know (we’ll find out tomorrow night), but their record so far has been consistent with other pollsters, or with reality itself.

[Biggirl]

I’m not optimistic. Obama has always polled better than he does at the actual polls. If he does not win NC by at least 5%, get ready for the big media blitz on how Hillary is now the front-runner.

[Liberal]

But what about the important question: has Obama put the Reverend Wright issue to rest?

[dalej42]

@Liberal

But what about the important question: has Obama put the Reverend Wright issue to rest?

Perhaps the cyclone in Myanmar will finally get the Rev. off the front page. His 15 minutes are way up.

[Biggirl]

@dalej42

Perhaps the cyclone in Myanmar will finally get the Rev. off the front page. His 15 minutes are way up.

Is that anything like a hurricane in Burma?

[Shayna]

@Biggirl

I’m not optimistic. Obama has always polled better than he does at the actual polls. If he does not win NC by at least 5%, get ready for the big media blitz on how Hillary is now the front-runner.

I may have to stick you and BobLibDem in a corner until this thing is over.

From the Charlotte Observer:

In the midst of an ultra-competitive Democratic presidential primary, Charlotte voters flooded polling stations Saturday for the last day of early voting.

. . .

Indiana, which also has early voting and votes on Tuesday with North Carolina, reported heavy early voting in counties that polls show heavy support for Obama. An overwhelming majority of the early voters interviewed by the Observer Saturday supported Obama.

. . .

The Rev. Gregory Moss Sr. encouraged his congregation at St. Paul Baptist Church in the Belmont neighborhood to vote early, something many of them were doing Saturday. Most of his congregants were backing Obama.

“Just about everybody in that line is from our church,” Moss said after voting Saturday.

Moss said he met with other Charlotte pastors who decided to lead their congregations to the voting booth.

“We decided we would vote as a family,” Moss said.

. . .

 **County	     Early Voters 2004	     Early Voters 2008	   Percent Increas**e
 	 	 	 
Mecklenburg	  4,679	                  42,768	         914%
Cabarrus	    670	                   3,767	         562%
Union	          1,522	                   7,843	         515%
Iredell	            722	                   7,335	       1,016%

I don’t believe for a moment that Hillary Clinton is driving these kinds of numbers to the polls. Were it not for Barack Obama, this year’s turnout would be disgustingly similar to that of 2004.

[RTFirefly]

@DSeid

Will Edwards take the bait to be king or queen maker?

Nope.

Bottom line: the couple said they will not endorse either remaining candidate, saving their political capital for their own causes – his, fighting poverty; hers, fighting for universal health care.