The thing is, people aren’t voting as if they are blind. They are voting for Obama. If Hillary was doing that well, she’d have won at least one of the last 8 primaries. She didn’t and she’s not. She looks very insincere when talking at least this morning on the news she flat out said…I’m doing the best I can. it ain’t going to work.
Heehee…she said that? Because the first thing that popped in my mind was my drill sergeant’s voice saying 'the maximum effective range of that excuse is…zero."
I’m just hoping that Texas and Ohio go Obama’s way.
Probably not. Those voters don’t care what she does in Wisconsin, and they’ll have done two more debates by then.
That gets too negative. I’m thinking:
Senator Clinton and I have had eighteen debates and, one thing about debates, is you can easily spend two days preparing, getting notes and of course the debate itself. I’ve enjoyed my time here in Wisconsin and, with only five days until the 19th, I feel that the best way for the people of Wisconsin to get to know me is one-on-one as I continue to visit over these next five days, answering their questions and hearing their concerns in person rather than sitting in my office waiting for an hour and a half on television.
Answers the debate issue and subtlely notes that Hillary hasn’t been spending her time in the Land o’ Dairy.
Senator Obama, if you’re reading, call me.
Conventional wisdom has always said that people dislike negative advertising but also that it always works. History gives us examples of Republicans slinging mud and sometimes downright fabricating stuff for their negative ads (Willie Horton).
Then a news crew walks around town with a camera asking people what they think about negative ads, and the televised answer always comes back “I really hate all these negative ads”. But then polls come out showing that the candidate benefits from them.
I remember quite a few posters who were pissed off the last two elections because the Dems refused to get down into the gutter with the Repubs and go on the strong negative offensive. Well, now it’s happening.
The Texas Burnt Orange guys have an interesting perspective on how potentially easy it could be for Obama to win, or at least come very, very close in Texas. . . (emphasis in original)
Let me ask this: How much could we read from an Obama win in Wisconsin regarding his chances in Ohio? Both seem similar on the surface – 86-90% white, Ohio has 12% African-American vs 7% in Wisconsin, neither have much of a Hispanic population (only 2% in Ohio). Wisconsin average income is $30,050 vs $28,700 in Ohio so about a $1400 difference. Both rely heavily on manufacturing and then agriculture.
But maybe I’m missing something. You have the “neighbor” factor in Wisconsin, of course with the Illinois senator. I’d worry that a slim victory in WI would bode ill for Ohio but would a solid Obama win in WI mean I should have a sunnier outlook on the Buckeye state?
A solid win by either of them bodes well for either of them. I wouldn’t read too much if it is close either way other than delegate counts.
Meanwhile polls make it very close - which I think is the best possible news for Obama. Why, you ask? Because Wisconsin is an open primary. A perceived close race will pull in more swing voters and Obamacans to the polls making the potential for an Obama blow-out exceeding expectations more possible.
So today’s your last chance to predict this one - put your guesses down! I’m sticking with my solid Obama win call here, by close to 20%, banking on independents coming out for him in fairly decent numbers. But that’s way beyond what any poll is saying, most putting it at a 5% Obama lead. Anyone want to stake out a Clinton victory prediction?
God help us all if she wins. It will show that her attacks on Obama worked, and she’ll crank up the negativity in Ohio and Texas.
I posted this in the other thread, so instead of rewriting it I’m posting it here. It’s good news for the Obama camp!
GMA reported Obama ahead by 5 this morning in WI and a shoe in for HI. They also reported Texas as Obama with a “slight lead” - Clinton is not liking thos stats, but we’ll see what happens.
ON a different note - GMA has MA governor on this morning to react to the Clinton Camp’s claim that Obama plagiarased his words…HOWEVER - I guess the GMA producers did not know that Deval Patrick and Barack Obama were old friends. So when Diane Sawyer asked Gov. Patrick about it he laughed a little and said, "Diane if this campaign has come down to this then Senator Clinton is in a worse position than she is saying. He used two words of mine, and I am OVERJOYED that he used them. His campaign is full of inspiration and is getting people to the polls for change. He has used words from FDR, JFK, Martin Luther King and others to illustrate his stance on change. He is a great man who I am honored as having used my words.
The look on Diane Sawyer’s face was She is an obvious Clinton Supporter…The best part about the whole thing is Gov. Patrick continued and gave Barack a HUGE thumbs up, and further called for people to finalize this race in his favor!
I nearly spilled my tea I was laughing so hard! This is Great News for the Obama Campaign.
Damn! I wish I could watch GMA here just to see that! I thought the whole speech thing was getting too much news attention already (and really it wasn’t even that much) because it was nothing..
I think tonight the Dark Empress pulls one out, say 52-48. She will act as if this negates all of Obama’s victories and is proof positive of her right to the Oval Office.
I hope you are wrong, but then I don’t think Obama is going to lose WI.
I predict 57% 43% Obama win in WI, and 69/31 Obama in HI.
I’m guessing Obama in WI by 6% and in HI by at least 25%.
SurveyUSA polled Wisconsinites yesterday, not on Clinton v. Obama, but on each of them v. McCain. Clinton loses 42-49, and Obama wins 52-42.
Clinton would have to do a LOT better than Obama amongst voters (both Dem and independent - see the crosstabs at the link) who’d vote for either one against McCain, in order to win today in Wisconsin. I think she might do better, but not by enough to win. Obama by 6.
The crosstabs are at the link, and are worth a look.
Here you go.
Here’s a direct link to the .flv file if you want to save it.
I do think Obama will win Wisconsin, but I’m surprised it still looks this close. It does seem like the last-minute decision makers have preferred Clinton to this point.
HOOOOOOOOOO-EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!
Poor poor Diane must be furious at how it turned out! Deval put a stake through the plagiarism thing and went on to do a terrific job of campaigning for Obama – to an audience of millions. The look of frustration on her face, the pathetic attempts to maintain a dismissive sneer – priceless.