NFL 2022: Week Eighteen Wheeler

The Game Room
161

Because the odds of failing to get a first down when you need one yard is very small. It’s around 30%. You have a 70% chance of picking up that first down. Forcing them to burn one more timeout. The statistics say it was the right move.

If you accept the penalty you’re giving up that opportunity. You’re saying, even though there’s a 70% chance any team could convert this, I don’t think my offense can. It’s objectively the better call to decline.

The proof is the math.

This article gets into details, and it’s talking about 4th down, but there’s no difference between success on 4th and 1 or 2nd and 1.

https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down

162

You risk one play to gain one play, and the chance it pays out is almost certainly far north of 50%. The expected value is positive.

Ignoring what they actually did after that, let’s examine what happens if you run every time. I don’t remember how much time was left, so let’s say 2:30 and 5 seconds per play. (Runs for zero are quick.) In all cases, once you get 1st & 10 you run it four times for no gain and turn it over and downs.

Decline penalty, fail to convert:
Lose a yard, burn a time out, lose a yard, burn a timeout. The clock is now stopped at 2:20 on fourth down.

Decline penalty, convert:
Gain a yard, burn a time out, lose a yard, burn a timeout, lose a yard, 2:00 warning. Lose a yard, then turn it over on downs around 1:15.

Accept penalty:
Lose a yard, burn a time out, lose a yard, burn a timeout, lose a yard, 2:00 warning. Turn it over on downs with 1:55 left.

In all cases, the Packers are left with no timeouts. The only variable is when the Packers get the ball. Let’s assume the 70% success rate handing the ball off on 4th and 1 holds true for our 2nd and one situation. (You could fairly challenge this assumption, but it seems reasonable.)

70% chance they get the ball at 1:15
30% chance they get the ball at 2:20

or

100% chance they get the ball at 1:55

I’m taking that risk. 1:55 is more time than Aaron Rodgers needs. I don’t see a meaningful difference between that and 2:20. Honestly 1:15 is still too much time to give him, but it’s way better than 1:55.

163

Correction: In the first scenario it’s only fourth down at 2:20. The Packers take possession at 2:15.

164

They would have 3 attempts, so I think the success rate is probably quite a bit higher.

I’m not sure how to quantify it but giving Rodgers the ball with the 2 minute warning to work with means he has a lot more options. It’s 2:15 + the stoppage vs 1:55.

165

You are severely under-selling your own argument. If you fail to get a first-down on second-and-one you go for it again, and if you fail on third-and-one you go for it again. The chance of failure is 0.3 * 0.3 * 0.3 = 2.7%.

“Going for it” on second-and-one has a 97.3% chance of success and a 2.7% chance of failure. That’s why the benefit of “going for it” (at least one extra play) so greatly outweighs the drawbacks of failure (one fewer play.)

None of this is new. As noted, a parallel situation arose in the 2021 conference championship, one of the most watched and analyzed football games of the year. It’s well understood that, when you’re trying to get the ball back late in the game, second-and-one fellates dead animals. The Packers knew it, the Lions knew it, the analysts know it, and most of the people posting in this thread know it.

166

I didn’t go that route because your scenario is implausible. Not impossible, but implausible. The chances of going for it on second and third down, with only 1 yard to gain, and failing to convert while still only having one yard to gain by 4th down are slim. Presumably they’re running on each play to burn off time.

Most likely there would be a tackle for loss which changes the odds quite a bit. When you extrapolate past the first play there is too much uncertainty due to too many variables and that 70% probability is no longer reliable. So I kept it simple, because it is pretty simple.

But I did definitely consider that when it’s 2nd and 1, you’re going to have a couple chances. It’s an ideal situation to be in, one that’s completely wasted if you accept the penalty.

Honestly, what would have been even better than picking up the 1st down is getting a half yard, and then being at 3rd and less than a yard. That forces the Packers to burn yet another timeout. Then you can pick up an even easier first down and get a fresh set of downs.

But that in itself is risky. Getting just a half a yard and no more on a rushing attempt with 22 people on the field running around in chaos is harder than just trying to get one yard or more. Something that precise on a football field just seems like it’s asking for something to go wrong. And I doubt anyone bothers to come up with a “half yard gain” in the playbook, because how often would you use it? Never for most teams. Would you have bothered practicing? Anyway, just a fantasy, it’s better to just try to pick it up with a run.

167

They call it a QB sneak.

168

That’s still hard to pull off and not get the first down I would imagine.

But I agree that it would probably be the best way to attempt it.

169

And this is what someone in this thread couldn’t comprehend. Failure on second down is not necessarily a bad thing, provided you convert on third or fourth down. In fact, failing on second down and converting on third, and certainly on fourth, essentially seals the game.

170

The defense was already willing to give up a penalty. I don’t think they even really try to stop you converting 2nd & 1 in that spot.

171

And more precedent, again oddly from the Packers. In Super Bowl XXXII with Denver on the 1-yard line and the game tied, the Packers let the Broncos score to preserve time on the clock for an attempted drive to tie it back up.

172

Sometimes football gets weird.

173

“Sometimes”?

174

Certainly looked like the Packers were trying on that play.

175

I agree. I can even imagine the thought process… “Oh, you don’t want the first down? Well then fine, we’ll stuff you until you give us the ball back!”

176

Saw a nice bit of news this morning- the Seahawks and their fans have made over 700 donations to the Lions Foundation to thank the Lions for knocking the Packers out of the playoffs.