NFL 2023 Off-Season Thread

The Game Room
141

Last year AJ Brown was traded for the 18th pick and 101st pick. Hollywood Brown was traded for the 23rd pick, the Cards also got back the 100th pick. I think DJ Moore is squarely in between those two players somewhere. Using the same chart, that makes AJ Brown worth 995 points. Hollywood Brown is worth 664 points which feels about right.

Today I listened to the Ringer NFL Podcast discussing the trade.

I think they did a pretty good job of summarizing my thoughts. They suggest that this is a fair trade for both teams, neither team can be said to have fleeced the other team. They think it makes obvious sense for the Panthers, but for the Bears it’s a bit more uncertain. It obviously hinges on Fields being THE GUY. They also debate where the Bears WR room ranks following the addition of DJ Moore, disagreeing if it’s in the top 12 or closer to the 17-18 range.

After sitting on this for a couple days, I’ve settled on the idea that the market for the 1st overall pick was actually pretty soft. Either because Poles drew a line in the sand and said he wanted it done before free agency, or because there are 4 QBs that teams could talk themselves into. Probably a mix of both. Had there been an unquestioned prospect in a tier by himself, the Bears probably could have forced a lopsided deal.

It was a good strategy and one I agree with. Even though Moore is substantially better than Pittman, I’d have much rather done a deal with the Colts to stay in the top 5.

Here’s potentially the biggest catch, Moore might ball out and then hold out for a new deal next year. His current deal is team friendly; his agent is Rosenhaus. Feels inevitable that Rosenhaus will pick the perfect time to sabotage the team.

142

In other Bears news, they have made 3 semi-confusing moves.

We knew the Bears had to fix their offensive line. So them signing a guy to a large-ish deal makes obvious sense. The issue is the position. Davis is an RG and has really only ever played RG dating back to college. So, if they are paying the guy $10M a year…he’s playing RG. Our current RG is Teven Jenkins, a guy we drafted 39th overall just 2 years ago, who had an absolute break out season last year. He’s pretty clearly our best OL and we just went and got a guy who plays the same position. Um, ok.

I have no idea what this means for Jenkins. I don’t think we’re moving on from him, and he struggled at right tackle when we tested him there. I don’t know that it makes sense to move him to left guard, that’s a much different skill set and for now we’re paying Cody Whitehair $10M a year to play that spot. It’s a real conundrum, Poles likely has a plan here but I’ll be damned if I know what it is. Were I to bet, I’d guess that Jenkins will be challenged to win the right tackle job unless we decide to cut Whitehair or move him to Center. The latter is an experiment he previously failed spectacularly at. Yikes.

That Tremaine Edwards deal is also quite puzzling. Edmunds is a talented player, but we’re paying him more per year than the Ravens are paying Roquan Smith. And Smith is straight up better than Edmunds. Edmunds probably edges Smith a bit in pass coverage, but Roquon more than makes up for it against the run. I don’t quite get it, spending $18M/year on an inside linebacker isn’t generally considered a good use of resources. Especially a guy who’s kind of one dimensional like Edmunds.

The Bears have gaping holes all over the defense, so I’m not shocked they signed a LB really, but DL and DB seem like more urgent areas to improve. I can only guess that Poles is thinking Edmunds is the most talented player he could get regardless of position and when you’re as barren as this roster you don’t sweat positional needs, it’s basically BPA for FA.

We doubled down in the ILB position by signing TJ Edwards also. He’s a heck of a lot cheaper than Edmunds and he’s a lot less athletic. In fact, he’s kind of a photo negative of Edmunds. He has one of the worst RAS scores you’re likely to see and he’s awful in pass coverage, great in run stopping. Maybe Poles figures that between the two of them we have a complete player.

Bears fans fell in love with Jack Sanborn last year. He was a UDFA ILB out of Wisconsin just like Edwards. Both guys grew up in the Chicago burbs. Feels like Poles has a type. Edwards is probably a better player than Sanborn but I’m not sure he’s a difference maker. I don’t think we can survive with Sanborn and Edwards on the field at the same time, but at least right now those two guys are the Sam and Will respectively. Yikes.

We made one more move that’s less puzzling.

Edge is another really ugly depth chart, so adding some talent here makes sense. It’s a particularly weak FA class and Walker seems like a solid fit and value. He’ll be stout at the point of attack and can occasionally get to the QB. Statistically he’s the most productive pass rusher the Bears have on the roster, which isn’t saying much, but we’re going to need some live bodies we can rotate in. Schematically he reminds me of Roy Robertson-Harris with his ability to move inside on passing downs.

It will be really surprising if the Bears don’t add at least one, if not two, pass rushers with premium draft picks. Walker probably won’t be asked to be the cornerstone of the pass rush.

Interested to see what comes next. We still have about $50M in cap space to spend and that’s before we make any additional cuts. I have to guess that Orlando Brown is on the radar and resigning David Montgomery should be part of the plan.

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In addition to pursuing Rodgers, Adam Schefter is reporting that the Jets are working to sign Packers WR Allen Lazard, who is entering free agency.

After Davante Adams was traded last offseason, Lazard entered 2022 as the Packers’ top WR, but when rookie Christian Watson finally got healthy in the second half of the season, he surpassed Lazard as the team’s top receiving threat.

144

Interesting. I would have said the Jets already have a surplus of wide receivers, but then I never really understood how or why Denzel Mims found himself in the doghouse. But Elijah Moore looks pretty solid, as does Corey Davis, and of course Garrett Wilson is a stud. I even like the looks of Braxton Berrios; he kind of reminds me of Wayne Chrebet with his upright running posture.

145

If Moore, Mooney and Claypool are all healthy, I’d say mid-teens.

Had there been a Burrow or Lawrence, Poles might have drafted him and traded Fields.

Agreed. My guess is that dealing with Roquan got personal, and Poles needed to send a message. I hated that trade and still do.

This would surprise me. I like Montgomery a lot but I don’t think Poles’ model pays RBs

146

Atlanta getting into the Taylor Heinicke business. I like him as a player, but the problem is he’s almost too good; he’s somewhere between a high quality backup and a marginal starter, which means unless you’ve already got a star QB, he’s a walking quarterback controversy.

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And, now, Schefter is reporting that the Jets are also looking at signing Randall Cobb. Clearly, it’s an effort to entice Rodgers, with WRs whom he knows (and Rodgers had personally lobbied the Packers to re-obtain Cobb, with whom he’s friends, in 2021).

That said, Cobb will be 33 by the start of the season, he’s not as productive as he once was, and he’s missed time in each of the last three seasons with injuries.

148

I read a few articles that mention that the Panthers seem good with either Stroud, Young, or Levis and that it’s not out of the question they could trade back out of the #1 slot if Houston, Indy or Seattle want to move up. Probably won’t happen, but interesting to think about.

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As well as TE Marcedes Lewis, and Odell Beckham Jr. – it appears that Rodgers gave the Jets a wish list of receivers.

150

The Packers went 8-9 last year with Rodgers throwing to those three guys. Why on earth is he so keen to have them in NY?

See what happened to Denver last year? That’s the 2023 Jets if they trade for Rodgers.

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Apparently, because he’s friends with them. As noted, he did the same thing to get the Packers to trade for Cobb two years ago, and Cobb didn’t do much, if anything, to make the Packers any better.

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So what is this, Pop Warner? Are they all going to sit around with their juice boxes complaining about the coaches being mean?

A professional shouldn’t need to have his friends on his team. This kind of BS should have any sane GM hanging up on the Packers.

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To be fair, this kind of BS is also why the Packers seem to be perfectly happy to trade away their best player. Rodgers has worn out his welcome in Green Bay.

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And it’s becoming increasingly clear why.

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Oh, no argument on that from this Packer fan. It’s been clear to me for several years that not only is he a prickly guy, at best, but he also wants to be the GM and director of player personnel.

Unlike the situation with Brett Favre, 15 years ago, in which a lot of Packer fans were siding with Favre, and wanted the team to bend over backwards to keep him happy and keep him in Green Bay, the sense I now have is that the fan base is largely ready for Rodgers to be someone else’s problem.

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All of this brings me joy.

157

The Jets signed Allen Lazard to a 4-year deal.

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“Source: Jets reach deal with Rodgers fave Lazard”

They knew what they were doing with that headline.

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The Giants add Darren Waller as a reliable target for Jones. Seems like a good move.

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This is exactly what happened to Denver. They are doing everything they can to get a star QB and letting him have control. You see how they are signing his friends? He’s acting as a GM by proxy. This will not end well.

The Broncos are putting their hopes in reining in Russell next year (hehe) by bringing in Sean Payton, presumably a head coach he respects and won’t run all over. And my prediction is that they’ll do better as a result. (I know, that’s a low bar.) New York is doing it the wrong way, by giving in too much to Rodgers.

Reportedly, people won’t sign Lamar Jackson because he’s asking for a ton of guaranteed money, this is for a running QB (which typically has a short shelf life) who has predictably struggled with injuries. Teams are being sane about him. The Jets are not being sane in regards to Rodgers. Yes, New York badly needs a QB and hasn’t had a good one in forever, but this is not the way to go about it.