That seems like the fair thing to do for the bettors.
It also seems like a lost opportunity for the bookmakers. They don’t make any money on those bets. Why would they set the line at 3 when they could set it at 2.5 or 3.5 and guarantee a result? If the line is 2.5, that will attract action for the favorite, and 3.5 will draw bettors on the underdog. Is the idea that a 3-point win will mean paying out lots of winning bets, and losing money, so it’s better to have a push and break even?
I share season tickets with my cousin. I don’t have the Broncos game this week, but I’m very strongly considering hitting the Ticket Exchange and attending anyways. I’m fully in the “so bad it’s good” camp here. This Bears fiasco is a full on trainwreck and I’ve gone from pissed off to fascinated.
The only question remaining to me is whether the Bears will can Poles or give him a chance to hire a second HC. IMO, keeping Poles would be football malpractice, which means it’s assuredly what the McCaskeys will do.
Here is a good explanation of how the line is set and how it moves in the days before the contest is played.
Thanks for the link. I haven’t finished reading it yet, so I don’t know if it answers my question or not. Whoever wrote it got paid by the word.
Short answer, it’s better to push and break even. A .5 point move in either direction will cause more winners on one side of the bet. The book is trying very hard (an over generalization, but mostly true) to get equal action on both sides of a bet. This ensures that they profit from either outcome (the vig). If they move a 3 point spread to a 3.5 point spread then a 3 point game results in a lot more wins that would otherwise be pushes. Since the casino is basically saying that these teams are 3 points different, setting the win .5 points higher or lower unbalances the book. That’s bad.
Also consider that .5 attached to the number is called “the hook”. The premise being that it hooks additional betters on the bet just to the other side of that 1/2 point. A 3.5 point bet encourages betting on the under. A 6.5 bet encourages bets on the over. It’s a psychological game and because of this behavior, moving the line when it’s not justified will have an outsized impact on the betting activity.
In a similar vain I am amused that after that game Denver favorites to win this week and Miami the underdogs.
Hell, when the Dolphins won Super Bowl VII against the (formerly known as) Redskins to finish their perfect season, they played that game as underdogs.
When you play relatively close games against the Patriots and the Chargers and the blowout is against a terrible Denver team, you haven’t actually proven you should be favored over a pretty good Bills team playing at home.
Though the line is so close that it’s basically saying the Dolphins would be favored had the game been played in Miami, so there’s that.
In other football news, American Mason Cox won the Australian Rules Football championship as a member of the Collingwood Magpies.
If you haven’t seen the 60 Minutes segment on this guy, you should. Quite an interesting saga.
And, FWIW, I just noticed that the Browns spread is down to -1.5 over the Ravens.
I couldn’t watch past the line in the opening where it said Footy makes American football “look like a quilting bee.” Besides, I’ve known about Cox for a while. Cool guy. I root for him, but overall I’m a Port Adelaide supporter.
I’m doing it boys. Going into the shit. Will report back on this course in ineptitude.
I saw someone on a fantasy reddit comment that Justin Fields is a must start this week. You’re facing a defense that just gave up 70 points. If you can’t make hay now, you never will.
I’m pretty sure that’s on the masthead at Halas Hall.
A few bits of NFL news from today:
Damar Hamlin is active (and presumably playing) for the Bills today. (Hamlin being the guy who died on the field last season). That’s sure to be an emotional boost for Buffalo, playing at home.
Then again, Miami has wide receiver Jaylen Wadlde active and playing for the Dolphins today (Waddle being the guy who missed last week with a concussion). That’s sure to be a talent boost for Miami, playing on offense.
OK, Justin Fields is 12/12 passing so far. Denver’s pass defense is stunningly bad. (BTW: Anyone else watching the game- Does soldier field look hazy on the broadcast, or is it me?)
Their defense is putrid and it’s the reason why Denver could end the season in last place. They’re making the Bears look really good.
Dolphins ran up the score last week on Denver and hit a brick wall in Buffalo this week.
Wow, the Bears are prepared to lose just anything they have a chance to. Wowie.
Probably the only Clevelander going wooot! today. 