The upset bug showed up last weekend, as three contenders went down at the hands of division foes. Pittsburgh was defeated in a blizzard in Cleveland, the Titans surprised the Texans in Houston, and Dallas defeated Washington in a game that had the wildest fourth quarter in years. Minnesota escaped an upset with an OT win in Chicago, and KC also avoided a loss with a last-second field-goal in Carolina. Half of the Chiefs 10 victories have been decided on the last play of the game. The Lions kept rolling, as did the Packers and Broncos. Seattle moved into a tie with Arizona in the tight NFC West, and the Ravens defeated the Chargers on Monday night to move within a half-game of the divisional lead.
This week features 3 Turkey Day games, the best of which might be the Fins visiting the Pack on Thursday night. KC hosts the Raiders on Friday afternoon. On Sunday, the Chargers are favored on the road in Atlanta, as are the Seahawks in New York against the Jets. The division-leading Steelers are underdogs in Cincinnati, while the Vikings are favored over the Cardinals. Cleveland will try to slow down the Broncos Monday night in Denver.
This week’s games. All spreads taken from DraftKings on Tuesday, November 26 at 9:10 am CT.
Why do I feel like this game is ripe for an upset?
The Raiders are clearly in really bad shape so I get the line but the Chiefs seem unable to blow anyone out. And it feels like eventually that habit of dancing on the edge of a cliff is going to go against them. Maybe it’s also something of a trap game.
A chilly Thanksgiving night is in store for the Dolphins at Lambeau. Current forecast is for temperatures in the mid 20s, but no snow and not much wind.
The Packers may be missing a couple of key players: WR Romeo Doubs suffered a concussion against the Niners, and probably won’t be cleared in time to play. CB Jaire Alexander missed last week with a knee injury, and didn’t practice yesterday.
Patriots are playing their last potentially winnable game of the season against the Colts. It will be interesting to see if they play hard or aim for the draft picks at this point.
I would absolutely be on that train, if it hadn’t just happened last season. With all of the chirping that happened after that game and during the offseason, I think the Chiefs will be very motivated to put an absolute drubbing on the Raiders.
Now, the Chiefs can’t seem to drub anybody, so it probably won’t actually be a beat down. But I don’t see them losing the game (unless, of course, Mahomes gets hurt).
My thoughts also. Chiefs can’t put anybody away, but they do win games. And have you watched the Raiders lately? Although with Gardner Minshew out, Aidan O’Connell might step back in at quarterback, and who knows how he’ll perform. I think the Chiefs win, but don’t cover.
Lock of the week. My sensational pick of the Browns paid off; alas not this week. I see Denver covering - in fact up double digits. Even with the Browns coming off their longest winning streak of the year (1 ). They just don’t have it unless it’s the Steelers or Ravens - hatred goes a long way.
It’s Denver at home, at altitude, and Jameis will be sailing balls all over the field. Unless the Denver DBs drop some, I’m going with a prop bet of over 2 interceptions.
Passing prop bets are not yet listed on this game on either DraftKings or FanDuel. I’ll keep checking and let you know what odds Vegas will be offering on this one.
If the Bears either get embarrassed on Turkey Day or if they lose another close one following some fairly obvious coaching mistakes, it will be interesting to see if Eberflus gets fired. This is a mini-bye week and the media discussion around him is starting to boil over. Firing Waldron seems to have been a net-positive so maybe the organization gets a little courage.
I suppose it’s just wishful thinking. A lot of people this week have been calling these last few losses the best-case scenario. We’re competitive, Caleb is developing, but we’re improving our draft position…which is hard to argue with. Maybe keeping this buffoon is the right move.
Note that the Bears have never fired a head coach in mid-season. (That said, neither had the Packers, until they sacked Mike McCarthy after 12 games in 2018.)
Yup. But I don’t put that much stock in those kinds of historical stats. There’s a first time for everything. And the culture is changing, the McCaskeys might be laggards but even laggards eventually get with the times.
Even if the Bears choose to retain him, I don’t buy that it’s because of some implicit policy, tradition, or standard. It’ll be because they looked at the circumstances right now and decided that waiting until after the season was the pragmatic choice. But maybe I give them too much credit…
I think that Virginia is fundamentally a good person, and tries to be as loyal as possible to the people under her…and I suspect that she is the one who makes the ultimate decision. For as long as I’ve been here in Chicago (35 years), it has always seemed like the team has stuck with under-performing coaches and GMs for longer than any other team would. If she didn’t go for firing Trestman or Fox mid-season, I’m not sure that she’d go for firing Eberflus now. But, she might surprise me.
I’m not really convinced that a 101 year-old woman is communicating her preferences on the matter to Poles. That’s not to say that she hasn’t said something along those lines over the last 30 odd years to George, and then he repeated it to Warren and so on down the line. But if Poles wanted to fire him, I can’t imagine Virginia throwing herself in front of that. If Poles really believes he should be fired, and he doesn’t feel confident in making the case, then that’s an indictment of him more than anyone else.
Daniel Jones, having cleared waivers on Monday, has signed with the Vikings on a one-year deal for the remainder of this season.
He’ll be on the Vikes’ practice squad for now, meaning that another team could potentially claim him if they’re willing to put him on the active roster.
This ESPN article notes that, of the Vikings’ four current quarterbacks: Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens, J.J. McCarthy (who is on IR with a knee injury), and Jones, only McCarthy is currently under contract for 2025.
I’m sure the league considered this a premier game until it was too late to flex it out. I’m surprised the line is only 6.5. They weren’t playing great to begin with but now…
QB Purdy isn’t throwing at practice, just handing off. LB Dre Greenlaw is on his first week back after his injury in the Super Bowl. Starting players LT Williams, G Banks, DE Bosa, CB Lenior didn’t practice at all, and LB Fred Warner is playing on a broken ankle. Other starters were limited.
CB Charvarious Ward, whose 2-year-old daughter died unexpectedly, has been away from the team grieving since October. News is he’s scheduled to be back at practice this week.
I also realized that this means that, of the four quarterbacks currently under contract with Minnesota, three of them were top-ten draft picks:
Darnold (#3, 2018)
Jones (#6, 2019)
McCarthy (#10, 2024)
Darnold and Jones, of course, now both have the additional distinction of having been highly-touted, but ultimately unsuccessful, saviors for New York teams.
Yes. If a team had claimed him during the waiver period, they would have had to take up the remainder of the contract. But, since he had cleared waivers, that contract was no longer in effect, and when he signed with Minnesota, he signed a new contract.
Also, it appears that the Giants still have to pay Jones the remainder of the 2024 salary which was in his contract.
I am not a cap expert, but I believe that the Giants will still face some “dead money” on the cap for the next year or two.
). They just don’t have it unless it’s the Steelers or Ravens - hatred goes a long way.