NFL Week 14

The Game Room
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Thursday:
IND @ TEN

Sunday early:
CLE @ BUF
ATL @ CAR
GB @ DET
OAK @ JAC
NYG @ MIN
CIN @ PIT
TB @ WAS

late:
STL @ NO
SEA @ SF
DEN @ ARI
NE @ CHI
MIA @ NYJ
KC @ SD

SNF:
PHI @ DAL

MNF:
BAL @ HOU

I was looking over ESPN’s power rankings thinking about the Browns schedule this year. They’ve played the 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 11, 12 and 13 teams, with the 2 and 4 coming up again. A few weeks ago they had the #2 most difficult schedule by win loss record but I’m not sure where to grab updated data offhand.

And all through that, every loss but one (Pittsburgh) came down to the final drive. Baltimore, Atlanta, KC, and Tampa needed scores in the final minutes of the game. The Jets game came down to the last 20 seconds of OT. The Jacksonville game came down to one long, flukey run. A few minor changes and they could easily have won 3 or 4 of those games, with a record of like 8-4 against that brutal schedule.

I hope they can get off to a quick start next year, because barring some sort of offseason drama or a Peyton Hillis injury, they’re on the rise. Speaking of which - Peyton Hillis should be in serious consideration for league MVP, but he won’t be. He’s so ridiculously essential to the Browns offense that if he were to go down they’d probably drop 10 ranks in offense - and that’s really the nature of what an MVP is, even if he’s not on a playoff team, right?

Speaking of which, I posted this in last week’s thread, but he’s so damn awesome I’m gonna post it again.

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It’s tough when you lose so many games by so little, isn’t it? For instance, last year the Steelers lost their 7 games by a total of 28 points, with only a single loss by 7 points and all the others less than that. In retrospect, what we wouldn’t have given for Suisham last year…Jeff Reed really came apart in the last two seasons, didn’t he?

That said, it is good to see the Browns somewhat back. I missed hating them, but to be completely honest I can’t find a way to truly hate a team that hasn’t been competitive for a decade. Now it’s looking like I can go back to absolutely despising them, and that’s a good thing.

Anyway, on to the picks:

Thursday: IND/TEN- I hope Tennessee takes it to them and closes them out. I’m still (perhaps irrationally) pissed about last year when the Quitters threw their perfect season away and let the Jets win because it knocked out the Steelers. I went from a certain respect for them to total hatred the moment Caldwell put Painter out there.

I hate the Titans, too, but that takes a back burner this week to Manning and CaldwellFace. Titans by 7.

CLE/BUF- Cleveland should win this unless they let the Bills hang around, because they come back strong every week in the 2nd half. Cleveland by 10.

ATL/CAR- Not worth talking about. Atlanta by 14.

GB/DET- Possible trap game. GB by 7, tops.

OAK/JAC: Oakland should win this, but they probably won’t. Jacksonville by 3.

NYG/MIN- I’d like to see Minnesota win this. Vikings by 7.

CIN/PIT- I’m going to be at the game, and I’m hoping that it is an utter ass-whooping, but you never know, and after last week Pittsburgh is beat to hell. Plus, the Bungles almost came all the way back last time they played, and Pittsburgh has a tendency towards letdowns. Pittsburgh by 7, but I hope I’m wrong and it’s more like 27.

TB/WAS- TB wins this easily. Tampa by 10.

STL/NO- New Orleans ought to win this at home. NO by 7.

SEA/SF- Niners get put away this week. Chickens by 6.

DEN/ARI- How the mighty have fallen. Denver wins because teams seem to win the first game under a new coach every time. Donkeys by 3.

NE/CHI- I want the Bears to win so badly it almost hurts. I hate the Cheaters so much. Bears by 7 if they can actually defend the pass. If not, NE by 21.

MIA/NYJ- Pull this one out, Miami. Take down a demoralized Jets team. You’ll never have a better chance. Miami by 6.

KC/SD- If the Chiefs win this it should spell the end for Norvelle, and for the rest of us AFC fans that would be a bad thing. Bolts by 10.

PHI/DAL- No matter who wins, we all lose. But since the 'Girls are already done I want them to beat the Eagles, both to further wreck their draft status and because it’s always good to see the Eagles lose. Dallas by 7.

BAL/HOU- I absolutely, completely despise the Ratbirds, and since they’re all beat up after last week they’re vulnerable to a (quite satisfying) loss. Texans by 3.

There you go. Bias abounds, but that’s how I hope it happens.

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I went to a Colts liker to Colts hater with the same thing, only I had no particular rooting interest other than not shitting on a chance at history due to cowardice.

Edit: The Colts didn’t do themselves any favor in my mind though when they intentionally let Tennessee win at the end of 2007 which pushed the Browns out of the playoffs, and then they even bragged about it - Dungy said how nice it was to win a division strong enough to field 3 playoff teams… one of which you let into the playoffs by laying down, bitches.

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As a Redskins fan I can assure you that you’ll feel differently about Suisham in a couple of months.

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If anyone’s interested, Yahoo has a page where you can pick winners to see the resulting playoff outcomes. For example, here is how the Cowboys can get in as a wild card.

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Agreed. Detroit hangs tough almost every week, and keeps finding ways to lose. The Packers have done a better job of putting nails in the coffin of weaker teams in the past few weeks, but they let the Niners hang around well into the 3rd quarter last week (and if Troy Smith were a more accurate passer, they might have hung around even longer – he missed two open receivers on deep routes).

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Yeah, the Bears didn’t play poorly at all last week and the Lions still hung around and with a couple more breaks might have won that game. The Bears turned it up to 11 in the second half, especially on defense, to get it done. If the Lions trade punches in the first half and if they get a break or two in the second half they might win. That said, the Lions simply don’t believe they can ever win close games, especially against elite teams/divisional opponents. The Packers ought to take care of business, but if the running game disappears and they commit penalties watch out.
I feel like I need to break down the Patriots - Bears game. It’s just too damn big.

I suspect that the Bears will lose and I have a nasty feeling that Belicheck will coax that ugly “Bad Jay” game out of him that most Bears fans have been waiting for. 3 weeks ago I liked the Bears chances quite a bit, but Tom Brady has gone into beast mode lately and just looks like an assassin. But, and it’s a big but, I’ve built a pretty convincing case why the Bears could (should?) win.

  1. The game is in Soldier Field. The Bears have won some tough games at home and the Patriots 2 losses have come on the road. The turf in Chicago is a nice home field advantage and usually gives the opponents fits and slows down high powered offenses, unfortunately this year’s Bears team seems to have it’s own share of problems with the turf. If the Pats slip and fall a few more times than the Bears it could be decisive. One caveat though, the weather has been frigid the last couple weeks and that turf may very well be frozen solid turning the game into a track meet. The Bears have better team speed, but the Pats have great quickness on offense. I suspect that in both cases the Bears are favored somewhat because both a frozen or sloppy field will limit the Pats quick-cutting offense and attacking defense more than the Bears Cover 2 and straight line speed on offense.

  2. The Weather. It’s going to be wicked cold on the lake front this Sunday and moving the game to a 3:15 start will make it even moreso when the sun sets. They are calling for snow too, which would be both fun to watch and might mean fierce winds. Both teams are pretty solid when the weather turns cold and the Patriots already had a trial run last week in Forboro. I expect the cold to be a non-factor aside from field conditions. Snow and wind however might favor the Bears. Cutler’s got the stronger arm the Bears have more size up front if this turns into a scrum. Neither team runs the ball well, but Forte is the best option and terrible conditions could marginalize Woodhead’s impact if he can’t get to the edges. Defensively the Bears front 4 can get pressure alone and allow them to play a soft zone and keep everything in front of them. Ugly weather will make long sustained drives tougher for the Pats. Conversely the Pats will blitz more and play more man-to-man opening up big plays. Fundamentally these are very different schemes, the Pats play coming forward the Bears play going backwards. I like the Bears scheme more in sloppy conditions.

  3. Trap Game. It’s hard to label a huge matchup between 1st place teams a trap game in week 14 with home field and bye weeks still on the line, but for the Pats it is. The Bears are coming off a divisional road game, but it was against the Lions and lacked much hype. The Pats faced their arch rival in one of the most hyped games in recent memory on Monday Night. That the game turned into a blowout might have the Pats feeling a little too good about themselves. The Pats have shown a tendency to let down a bit and play down to their competition and played sloppily following their last Jets game. That it’s an NFC game against an unfamiliar opponent might also lead Belicheck to play it a little too close to the vest. In reality the Pats final 2 games against Buffalo and Miami are more important than these next 2 against Green Bay and Chicago. Also, the Pats may be looking ahead to next weeks SNF game against the Packers.

  4. Short Week. It doesn’t need much explanation but you never like to be the team going on the road to face a tough opponent following a MNF game.

  5. Special Teams. Both teams are very healthy but the Pats are without their place kicker. Gostkowski was one of the best and had a huge impact on kickoffs. Shayne Graham isn’t bad at FGs, but he lacks the range of Gostkowski and most importantly for this game he is terrible at kickoffs. With Hester and the Bears return game that’s not a good recipe. The Pats punting also isn’t special with the rookie being solidly average or worse in all categories and he’s near the bottom of the pack in punts out of bounds with just 2 meaning Hester will get opportunities. Long story short, the Bears have a decided edge here and I suspect the veterans Maynard and Gould will tolerate uncertain field conditions better.

  6. Tampa 2. This argument is perhaps a questionable one but it’s been the strongest one insofar as buoying my expectations. Tom Brady is a veteran and has seen it all, so I expect few surprises, but going back through the years many of Brady’s worst statistical games were facing heavy Tampa 2 schemes. He’s had big games against attacking, blitzing and zone blitzing teams. The Pats run that type of system and he’s very familiar with it. 3-4 teams like the Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Dolphins and Cowboys have gotten carved up somewhat while 4-3 zone teams have contained him. The sample sizes aren’t huge and the variety of personnel and mixture of schemes makes it tough to quantify clearly, but logically the Bears soft Cover 2 seems like the right recipe versus the Welker/Branch/Tate combo. I worry about Gronkowski and Hernandez exploiting the middle and Urlacher needs to have a monster game, but he can do that. Historically the Bears have had trouble with big, dominant WRs. They don’t double team or bracket coverage often and through the years they’ve been gashed by Calvin Johnson, Steve Smith, Mike Williams (!!!), Larry Fitzgerald and Miles Austin. Teams that spread it around and try to nickel and dime you play into the Bears hands of forcing turnovers. Obviously the Jet’s style didn’t work…so it’s as good an argument as any.

  7. The Pats Defense. Their defense sucks. Few people realize it and they’ve consistently been good enough to win games. They’ve forced turnovers when it counts, but all in all you can work them over. If Cutler continues his Steve Young impersonation extending plays and making plays with his feet there’s a good chance that there’ll be some big plays open. The Pats don’t have a DB capable of shutting down their WRs and Martz will use so many packages that’ll they’ll need to be on their toes. The Pats defense is at the back of the pack in sacks and if the Bears O line continues to play better Cutler might have some time for a change to attack downfield.

After the showing on MNF and the not-to-distant memory of that midseason swoon by the Bears it’s tough to feel real confident in this game, but by Sunday I’ll have talked myself into it.

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Curse you Omni. I planned to go into Sunday’s game ready to completely write it off. I want to expect the Bears to lose so I can be very excited if they win. Now I’m all hyped up for it and it’ll be more of a punch to the gut if they lose.

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You mistyped “when”

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Don’t worry the Bears are going to lose. They are playing the Pats who beat the Colts and embarrassed the Jets to no end that was supposed to be a tight game. Don’t even bother watching it. Write it off as a loss. Go Christmas shopping come home check the score and hope it isn’t too bad of a loss. Oh wait I might be going over board here.

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Aw thanks guys.

Back to my original plan, rooting for the Lions.

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The track of the snowstorm (which is most likely going to be just tapering off at game time on Sunday) is still very much up in the air; it’ll be clearer how much snow we’re going to get in Chicago within the next day or two. It’s possible that we’ll get whomped; it’s also possible it’ll be diving south of us, and we won’t get much.

Regardless, it’ll be cold and windy; the current forecast for 3pm on Sunday is for a temperature of 23, with NNW winds at 23mph, gusting to 34mph.

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Strategy and advantages aside, I love watching football in the snow. Come on Old Man Winter, help us out here. Also, go Lions, you dome playing pussies.

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Absolutely agreed! Snow games are always a blast to watch.

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God bless whoever decided to build an open stadium a whole 500 feet from Lake Michigan.

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I’m going to stab the next person who says “must win game” unless it actually is some sort of “win this or you’re out of the playoffs” scenario. I see that fucking phrase every week to describe about 12 different games. Yes, winning games is important. That does not make every game a fucking “must win” game. SF playing Arizona is not a “must win” game for either team because it doesn’t fucking matter if they finish 3rd or 4th on the ass end the NFL.

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Man, that Bills game is a must win for the Browns if they want to keep their thin playoff hopes alive!

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It’s a must-win because the 49ers are still in contention, believe it or not.

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Actually, that’s true I guess. I just pulled a random example out of my ass, but I think you guys know what I mean.

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Going into the bye week, I would have written this off as a Bears loss on their way to the 7-9 season that many of us expected back at the beginning. Now, I’m not so sure. The only thing I can say for sure is that I need to go stock up on beer for Sunday. I’ll be close to a BevMo today, and 2 Below is on sale.