NFL Coaching Carousel: 2024-2025 Edition

The Game Room
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We’re 3 weeks away from Black Monday in the NFL, but I think it’s time to start the thread.

The first big domino to fall happened this past weekend.

Bill Belichick has accepted the head job at the University of North Carolina. Bill’s dad coached at UNC for a bit and he’s expected to bring his son with him to UNC. He’ll be earning $10M a year.

While this is a College Football hire, Bill was obviously a prominent candidate for any available NFL gigs. Presumably he’s off the market for at least 2024 and this could potentially mean the end to his chase of Shula’s NFL wins record.

In other CFB news…

This may or may not be relevant to any of the open NFL jobs, but his name was being floated in Chicago as one of the possible candidates. The cynic in me thinks this was always just his agent angling to get him a new deal from ND, nonetheless he was in the top 5 of potential hires for the Bears according to the oddsmakers. Again, this probably narrows the field for teams. As a minority candidate, him getting multiple interviews would have been unsurprising.

Now to the open gigs.

Plenty of digital ink has been spilt on this already, but the Bears and Caleb Williams will be looking for a new Head Coach at the end of the season. The firing of Matt Eberflus was a year overdue and the only people who didn’t realize it reside in Lake Forest.

Interim Head Coach Thomas Brown is auditioning for the job but in unlikely to win it, I think.

The Jets were the first to pull the trigger all the way back in week 5. This was probably a case of scapegoating Robert Saleh more than anything and the Jets continue to flounder. But with or without Rodgers, this probably won’t be a very exciting job for most candidates. All these teams are somewhat dysfunctional, but the Jets seem like the most broken.

Interim Head Coach Jeff Ubrich probably isn’t a serious candidate for any of the open positions regardless of how the season plays out.

The Saints dumped Dennis Allen earlier in the year after a loss to the rival Panthers. The Saints are perpetually capped out and need a hard reboot so it will be interesting to see what direction they go. If any team hires a no-name assistant or a relatively unknown college HC, the Saints would have my bet.

Interim Head Coach and forrner Special Teams Coordinator Darren Rizzi is probably not a serious candidate for the cycle either.

ESPN has helpfully created a list of the hot seats.

Will be interesting to see if there are any surprise firings come Black Monday. Odds are good that there will be at least one.

Some of the names to watch.

Brian Daboll - New York Giants
This is a screwed up situation and he was saddled with Daniel Jones and a hapless front office. He’ll probably get the boot along with the rest of the “brain trust”. Will be interesting to see if he gets a shot to be an HC for another team or if he goes back to being an OC for a team with an up-and-coming QB.

Antonio Pierce - Las Vegas Raiders
Pierce has seemed mostly in over his head since he was promoted from Interim HC. His firing seems like a foregone conclusion, but he too has been saddled with an utterly hopeless QB situation. Tom Brady is now part of the organization and people think he’ll have a very loud voice when it comes to hiring both the next HC and finding the next QB. Is there a chance that Pierce keeps the gig, maybe as a sacrificial lamb, for another season while they retool the roster?

Doug Pederson - Jacksonville Jaguars
One of the worst head coaches in football is definitely getting his walking papers after another catastrophic season in Jacksonville. I will be shocked if this Super Bowl winning HC gets another top gig in the pros. He might be a candidate for a step down to the NCAA.

Jerod Mayo - New England Patriots
Bill Belichick’s hand-picked successor has been bad this year and seems to be unpopular with both players and media. Not a great year for youngish former players getting HC jobs. Between he and Pierce, we might be seeing a return to teams hiring a lot of safer retreads. Maybe the Krafts keep him around for another year out of loyalty and hopes that there’s a learning curve here. But with Drake Maye looking like he’s got it, are they willing to gamble with his growth?

Brian Callahan - Tennessee Titans
Another young coach with a bad QB. I kind of think he gets another year to try and figure this out. But any team drafting in the top 5 is liable to look long and hard at the HC.

Zac Taylor - Cincinnati Bengals
This is probably the biggest name on the list. The Bengals remain an insanely talented team with an elite QB, WR and several other blue chippers on both sides of the ball. They’ve been incredibly unlucky this season, but this isn’t the first time this team under Taylor has been accused of underachieving. Mike Brown will need to decide which option if riskier, gambling with Burrow’s prime by trying out a new HC/OC or maintaining the status quo. Think it’s 60-40 that he’s gone.

Some other quick what-ifs.

Sean McVay - Los Angeles Rams
He obviously won’t be fired, but he toyed with retirement or at least taking a sabbatical not too long ago. Any chance he steps away this year?

Kyle Shanahan - San Francisco 49ers
Like the Bengals, they’ve had the season from hell. Pretty much everything has gone wrong, and the locker room has seemed pretty toxic at times. I think it’ll be a surprise if he’s fired, but a mutual parting of the ways may not be out of the realm of possibility. What if Shanahan and Lynch have differing views on Brock Purdy? This is probably just idle speculation and clickbait, but fun to think about if you’re a team hiring. If he’s available for trade, do you consider it?

Mike McCarthy - Dallas Cowboys
He’s going to be mentioned every offseason until he’s fired or until he wins a Super Bowl. Part of me thinks that Jerry is tired and uninterested in putting in the work to make a change. Dak’s injury probably spares him from some of the heat this year. But absolutely no one will be surprised when he’s gone, Jason Garrett Redux.

Mike McDaniel - Miami Dolphins
This one would be pretty wild, but this team has regressed so badly this year. Does McDaniel take the blame? Has is schtick worn out in Miami? It would be a huge mistake, but crazier things have happened.

Kevin Stefanski - Cleveland Browns
This is a really screwed up team drafting in the top 5 once again. I don’t think people blame Stefanski for this mess, but let’s face it, you can’t fire the owner or Watson. He literally just signed an extension so this would be a wild one, but with Haslam…

Nick Sirianni - Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are on pace to secure the #1 seed in the NFC, so this would be crazy. But this week he just had a big blow up on the sidelines with Jalen Carter and there always seems to be drama around this guy. The Eagles are successful but from the outside looking in, it seems like Sirianni is one bad loss away from a pink slip. They canned Doug Pederson one year after a Super Bowl win so it wouldn’t be completely unheard of.

Sean McDermott - Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen will probably win the MVP and the Bills OC is one of the hottest candidates out there. But there’s still rumblings that McDermott could be fired if the Bills experience another flameout in the post season. Like the Bengals, ownership could be looking at their all-world QB and wondering why they can’t get over the hump.

So who are the candidates? Let’s see what ESPN has for us.

Ben Johnson - Detroit Lions OC
Everyone’s top choice. He could have had almost any job he wanted last cycle and that remains the case this year. Will he finally take a job? Will he stay home if the Lions fall short due to injuries? If he says no again, will he miss his window?

Most in Chicago are salivating over the idea of him and Caleb working together. And I think for good reason. But the Bears need an organizational overhaul and is young and relatively inexperienced guy like Johnson the one to lead it? It’s a fair question.

Mike Vrabel - Cleveland Browns Consultant
His firing in Tennessee was a mild surprise and then the apparent lack of interest across the league last cycle was equally so. But with a lot of likely openings and a dearth of quality candidates, it would be a shock if he weren’t a hot interview. Most teams will be focused on offensive options, so that will cool his market a bit, but Vrabel will be viewed as a “leader of men” (cringe) in the mold of Dan Cambell. Would he bring a guy like Josh McDaniels along for the ride to call plays and bolster his stock?

Aaron Glenn - Detroit Lions DC
The other Lions coach will get interviews for sure, if for no other reason than the Rooney rule. Personally, I think he’s a hack, but the way that they’ve mostly held things together in the wake of a comical number of injuries on that side of the ball is something. Like all the defensive candidates I think he’ll struggle somewhat but he might click with the right GM.

Brian Flores - Minnesota Vikings DC
He’s had quite the career rehab after his ouster in Miami and this unexpected Vikings season really helps his candidacy. Personally, I’m not excited by his prospects. I don’t think he brings enough to the table to offset the questions about his temperament. I would think that he’d be a better fit on a team with an established leader at QB.

Vance Joseph - Denver Broncos DC
Great defensive coordinator. Terrible head coach. I think that will be the book on him. With the Broncos likely heading to the playoffs, it will be interesting to see how many interviews he’s able to schedule.

Joe Brady - Buffalo Bills OC
Very similar case for and against him as with Ben Johnson. Lots of success at a young age but no head coaching experience. Do teams trust him to big a culture and command a locker room? How much of his success had to do with him having Joe Burrow and Josh Allen under center? Will it translate to a rookie or sophomore QB?

Kellen Moore - Philadelphia Eagles OC
He’s a weird one. He’s been in three different OC jobs in as many years. And the Eagles, in spite of their record, have been really bad at throwing the ball this year. I blame most of that on Hurts, but it would be crazy to me if Moore were rewarded for it. If the Eagles find a way to win the NFC, that changes things. Could he return to Dallas if McCarthy gets the ax?

Kliff Kingsbury - Washington Commanders OC
A once failed HC who has seemingly salvaged his career due to the success of Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams in USC. If I were a GM, I’d want to see a bit more sustained success before I brought him in, but he’s an offensive mind with some pedigree. That will get him serious consideration. Lots of people in the media want to pair him up with Caleb again in Chicago…I really hope that doesn’t happen.

Jesse Minter - Los Angeles Chargers DC
It would be a little crazy if he got a top job this fast, but you shouldn’t discount the patronage of the Harbaughs in the minds of owners. He’s had immediate success in the NFL and has a Natty under his belt. If he were an OC I’d put more stock in his candidacy, but as a minority candidate he’ll probably get interviews. And once in the room anything can happen. If I were a GM, I’d be a little worried that he’s a Xs and Os guy who doesn’t have the rolodex you need to build a strong staff.

That’s the ESPN list. I imagine there’s some dark horse candidates, maybe some college coaches, who will have their names bandied about.

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I agree that if he goes it’ll be his choice, and he has been open about wanting a break at some point. I do think LA won’t be able to do better and it’ll be a mess if he leaves, and I’m sure he knows it and it’s probably a big reason why he has stayed.

I don’t like Shanahan and I am required to hate the 49ers but I can’t blame him for their problems. They have crappy luck. If he gets canned it’s because someone in the organization is desperate for a scapegoat and it would be cutting off the nose to spite the face.

If they could fire the owner and Watson somehow, it would be such an improvement. Everyone outside of Cleveland said that they were insane when they signed Watson to a mega deal and it’s going as badly as anyone with a half a brain might have predicted.

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I wouldn’t be surprised if Doug Peterson reunites with Andy Reid in the off-season as OC again. Matt Nagy has overstayed his welcome in KC.

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Normally, I would say it’s a huge mistake to fire a guy after one season, but I’m not sure that’s true here. Mayo has been really terrible in many areas: the defense has regressed, his clock/game management poor, the whole team is sloppy and mistake- and penalty-prone, hell they can’t even tackle anyone lately, and Mayo was a linebacker!

He was anointed the heir-apparent without any interview of anyone else, which seemed dubious at the time and right now looks downright foolish. I still don’t know if it’s the right idea to can him, but I think the Krafts should be at least considering a switch here. Drake Maye looks like the real deal, and it would be a real shame to stunt his growth with bad coaching, as Omni opined.

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Mayo seems to be an outlier in a lot of ways. He did not have a lot of coordinator experience and probably could have used a few more years to develop, which was probably Belichick’s plan (rather than getting canned a few years earlier than he would have liked).

I wouldn’t even put that on being a young-ish former player.

Kevin O’Connell was drafted by the Patriots the same season as Mayo and many would say he’s doing at least a reasonable job in Minnesota.

DeMeco Ryans was drafted by Houston a couple years earlier (a linebacker no less!) and has done more than a credible job with the roster he inherited.

I’m not sure Zac Taylor counts as a youngish player turned coach, as he went undrafted and didn’t last long, but the Bengals woes appear to be more bad luck than bad coaching.

So, for youngish players turned HCs, Mayo and Pierce are probably better used as lessons on properly evaluating the people in your own building rather than some sort of lesson about players turned coaches, many of whom are actually turning out ok. They’re a little older but people don’t seem to think Mike Vrabel or Dan Campbell were bad coaching hires, either, much less the even older Harbaughs.

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My thinking was that there might be a bit of a snap reaction.

Ryans was hired and then become super successful immediately. Dan Campbell has obviously worked out.

Then teams copied that this past year with Pierce and Mayo. Both flopped. So it’s sort of a knee jerk over reaction followed by a return to the status quo.

I’m drawing a bit of a distinction between the guys who were good-to-great players with long careers versus guys who played a little football. O’Connell and Taylor were QBs who held a clip board for a minute. That’s a bit of a more traditional path to being a coach.

But I’m probably just overthinking it.

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Maybe overthinking it a little.

DeMeco Ryans is one of those good players who had a long playing career, and he’s at minimum a serviceable HC if not a pretty good one already in only his second season.

There’s a long history of former players turned coaches. They don’t all work out but enough of them that do work out that there’s no real stigma to it. Seems to be more a function of dysfunctional teams. The Raiders very much count, and the Patriots look increasingly to be of that mode in recent years.

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To be fair, the Lions and Texans were the definition of dysfunctional. The Patriots the exact opposite.

I have a vague idea that being a successful Coordinator has little to no correlation to being a good HC. It’s a small sample size so any trends will be hard to draw conclusions from, but there have been a lot of position coaches who made the leap to HC and seemed to have success.

Being a OC or DC is basically a tactical job. Effectively an individual contributor. Being a HC is an executive position and a strategic position.

Great playcallers can still be great playcallers when HCs. But being good at all the other stuff doesn’t always happen.

Even for a guy like Andy Reid, I think he succeeds in part because he has guys like Dave Toub around to carry some of the management weight as assistant HC. Even Sean McVay promoted Thomas Brown to assistant HC back in the day and has Aubrey Pleasant in the same role now. It takes a lot of job security to elevate a guy like that, but that’s what I want to Bears to do if they hire a OC to take the job.

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This could very easily happen. Although, now that UCLA and Eric Bieniemy have parted ways, it’s possible that he may come back to KC as OC. Bieniemy was the OC for two of the Chiefs recent SB victories.

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Yeah, I’d like EB back, but I think he wants to try for a head coaching job somewhere. For some reason, people don’t think he was all that involved in the Chiefs’ offensive success, and that Andy Reid was the sole mastermind. I think we can see that Nagy’s stale playcalling makes a pretty big difference. I miss Bienemy, and would be thrilled with either him or Peterson coming back.

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He’s tried and tried, but can’t seem to get hired. Or, for that matter, sometimes can’t get interviewed.

Something needs to change for the Chiefs offensively. At one point in the 3rd quarter Sunday in Cleveland, with a 21-7 lead, they ran six consecutive passing plays, all resulting in incompletions, for back-to-back 3-and-outs. Terrible play calling.

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“What are the odds of a sixth incompletion? According to statistics, you will eventually get a completion, so every attempt we make just makes it more likely to be a completion! Clearly, the best solution is to keep throwing it.”

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Ah, the Martingale strategy.

Owners also seem to employ it in their coaching searches. “The last 5 guys I picked weren’t any good. Surely the next one I pick based on my gut feeling will pan out. Even though I’m the only common factor, I can’t possibly make bad choices. I’m great!”

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The McCaskey Corollary.

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I actually think he is closer to the “leader of men” type of HC than an Xs & Os coordinator. If you bring him to a location to improve the defense as a HC, it will probably fail. But you bring him somewhere to improve the culture (loaded term) and move the organization forward, he could end up an even better HC candidate than Ben Johnson.

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I agree. He’s definitely more of the rah-rah type than the bookish technocrat. He’s the vibes candidate for sure. My main problem is that I think he’s largely full of shit. Even if he clicks with players and has them going balls to the wall, that kind of energy always has a short lifespan. It can work when you’re a subordinate, but I wouldn’t want that kind of energy from the steady hand on the wheel. Who knows, maybe he’s a wizard on the white board and all the antics are just noise.

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There’s zero chance the 49ers move on from Kyle Shanahan. There is a chance they dump 1st year DC Nick Sorenson for Jeff Ulbrich. There will be talk about bringing back Robert Saleh, but i consider that unlikely. Ulbrich played from the 49ers and was on the danger coaching staff with Kyle in Atlanta. There were rumors the 49ers wanted him from the Jets but couldn’t because it was a lateral move NYJ could deny.

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Pete Carroll seemed to do okay.

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(My bold)

I hope that was a typo.

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Of course it was a fucking typo. There’s another wrong word four words ahead of that. Dude was obviously typing from his phone. That’s a super unnecessary accusation there.