NFL Conference Finals: Predictions

In My Humble Opinion
1

The Final Four! With apologies to the NCAA, this is the real Final Four.

The festivities start out with the Minnesota at NY, followed by Baltimore at Oakland.

I was 2-for-4 last week, although I basically flipped coin on the Ravens/Titans, (and also went with the Eagles). After watching the Giants/Eagles, I must admit that NY has the more balanced team. Titans/Ravens game was tight into the 4Q, which I expected.

Minnesota Vikings at NY Giants
Stats say the Giants have a better defense than the Saints, and the game will be played outside on the slow stuff. The Giants offense lacks fire power, and the Vikings will likely stack up against the run and dare NY to win through the air.

This could be a relatively low-scoring game, especially if the weather is poor. Minnesota has something, however, that NY lacks: playmakers. They may be held in check almost the entire game, but the team of Culpepper, Moss, Carter, and Smith will be good for at least two game-making plays, and that should be enough.

Minnesota 27 NY 14
** Baltimore at Oakland **
Offense vs Defense? Baltimore’s defense is superb, which is a good thing because the offense sucks. Oakland would be appear to be a bit more ‘balanced’; very good offense with an adequate defense. Purists will argue that ‘defense wins championships’ and that balanced teams should do better. They have a point: balanced teams find that aspect of their game is able to pick up the slack if the other aspect falters; imagine Minnesota having to depend on its defense to win a close game (shudder).

The Ravens were lucky to win last weekend with almost zero contributions from the offense, and I don’t see that happening two weeks in a row, expecially against the strong playmaking skills of Gannon. Like above, playmakers are key in the playoffs. If the Ravens get 14 points from their defense again, they win, but my forecast is

Ravens 9 Oakland 24

2

Vikes snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

3

Who are you and what did you do with gazoo? :mad:

4

Now that it’s down to the Vikes vs the Giants, I couldn’t give a rat’s ass about the outcome of the NFC game.

On the other side of the coin, I’m gonna go with the Raiders. Only because this year, every team I’ve picked in the playoffs has lost. (I’d like to the the Fates fuck me on this one! I’m rooting for the Raiders, but hoping the Ravens win . . . whatever the outcome, I WIN! Bwahahaha! In your face, FATE!)

5

I don’t know who you are, but I like ya already. Best call I’ve heard so far.

6

Let’s see…NY has zip for an offense, plays in a division that my old high school could dominate, has a lousy secondary (except for Seehorn), and never did score an offensive touchdown in that last game.

-and then-

The Vikes have two superb receivers, a very good running back, a quarterback that’s pretty good and bigger than alot of linebackers, a huge offensive line, the defense is coming around, and the weather isn’t supposed to be too bad.

Of course, this probably means that the Purple will get majorly drubbed.

But, God, I hope I’m wrong.

7

Speaking of the Minnesota running back, Robert Smith has really been a non-factor for the last four games or so. I seriously thought he had MVP potential after about the first 12 games or so, but he has done nothing since.

Don’t know if it is a combination of Smith getting a bit run down (remember, this is really his first full season; he has been injured and missed at least two-three games almost every other season), the OL getting worn down, or defenses keying in on stopping the run. Smith’s numbers vs the Saints are misleading; he had 75 yards, but a good third of those came on one play; he probably averaged less than two yards per carry minus that one play (and averaged only around three yards even with that play).

Of course, Smith (and I) will be more than happy to suffer the poor looking statistics if it means defenses are committing an extra guy to the line to stop him – opening up the secondary for Carter and Co.

8

Rysdad, you are absolutely right. The Giants will cream the Vikings. They will do their stubborn best to avoid allowing the big plays that are Minnestota’s specialty. Then you have to consider the viking’s defense, which will actually give up points to the Giant’s Offense.

For the other game, Raiders will outgain the ravens 600 yards to 50, have 40 first downs to Baltimore’s 4, and the score will be 35-20…in favor of Baltimore. Talk about a charmed team.

9

Oakland, Baltimore, Minnesota, and New York in the conference championships? Are you sure this is the new millennium? :slight_smile:

All right, all joking aside…man, it’s incredible that these four made it. You got the Raiders, who won one close game after another all year and saw the two teams with the best shot of beating him get tanked. You got the Ravens with their great defense and wildly inconsistent offense, a combination which usually spells 8-8 at best for most teams (remember Seattle?). You got the Giants, who are unquestionably the worst, most pathetic team that has not lost to the Giants. And you got the Vikings, who are starting to bear an uncanny resemblance to the purple team in the NBA, if you catch my drift.

Hate to say it, guys, but this is just one of those years. Sometimes the Super Bowl champ is a powerhouse and far and away the most devastating team in the league, and sometimes it’s the team that manages to not lose the most often. Like it or not, these four teams, flaws and all, are the best the league has to offer.

Which should give the XFL a boost, of course, but until then, let’s just see how it all plays out, shall we?

My picks:

AFC Championship: It’ll all come down to which side comes up with their best stuff at the right time and doesn’t have their worst stuff happen at the wrong time. If you think I’m being specious here, you obviously haven’t seen most of their games. :wink: If the Raiders can keep it tight and hold the Ravens’ offense in check, they should win a close one. Unless the Ravens get a big play on defense which leads to a quick score. Then the Raiders have to play catch-up, and then they have no chance. Probably. There’s always the chance they’ll get a big turnover at the right time…unless this is one of the games the Ravens’ offense gets it together, then it could be a shootout. Which could go either way. Probably.

Please refer to my original statement…

PREDICTION - Raiders 13-10 or Ravens 35-30.

NFC Championship: Well, Minny’s rep for blowing it in the big games is well known and deserved. At the same time, the Giants don’t exactly look like the team that won it all in ‘91 (IIRC). In fact, one could argue that they’ve been the beneficiaries of more opponent collapses than any other team this season (although Oakland and Tennessee are close). So on the face of it, the Giants would have the edge here. Note however that this is the conference championship, so the Vikings still have one more game to embarrass themselves…plus there’s that 0-5 Super Bowl record to shoot for (which would vindicate the Bills once and for all). Then again, the Giants offense lately has been as lame as the Ravens’, and Minnesota’s clearly a stronger team than Oakland. So Minnesota should win…but New York will win…but Minnesota really wants to win…but New York’s got what it takes to win…geez, give me something to work with, people!

PREDICTION - Vikings 42-0 or Giants 42-0.

(Hey, it’s not like I’m getting paid for this…)

10

Boy, talk about wishy-washy predictions :slight_smile:

I am not sure, however, if we need to assume that we will have a ‘weak’ Super Bowl winner. I don’t think we have ‘parity’; what we do have is a very, very competitive league–a rising tide carries all boats, and even the bad teams are good, in a matter of speaking. The Chargers went 1-15, and I think they would beat the pants off some of the old horrible Tampa Bay teams, with or without Leaf at the helm.

So no one team dominates. Big deal. Whether or not the best team wins (i.e., if two teams played 10 times, who would win more than half the games?) is a mute point. Who wins the one time they actually play in the big game is what counts. The Rams may be better on paper than the Saints, but they weren’t good enough to beat them when it counted – ergo, the Saints are the better team. I still believe that the Vikings of 1998 were perhaps the most dominant team (in the regular season, anyway) of recent memory (including the Rams of last year) – this is a team that was within three points of going 16-0, and lost only two games all year by a grand total of 6 points – but were not as good as the Falcons when it counted.

If paper strength was all that mattered, we wouldn’t bother to play them out and would have handed the trophy to the Redskins last September.

11

Well, 1-3 last week, and 3-5 for the playoffs thus far, meaning I have to win out in order to get over .500 for the post-season. Last Satuday’s game’s were ok, but Sunday…WOW! First the blocked kick and punt show that was Ravens/Titans, followed by Jason Sehorn doing his best Antonio Freeman impersonation against the Iggles.

There’s only two games, so lets go with the analysis first, followed by the picks this time around (line in italics):

NFC Championship

Vikings at Giants - Vikings by 2.5 (Let’s see, the Vikes beat the Saints, who beat the Rams (twice), who beat the Giants. But the Rams also beat the Vikings. Dead end. Minnesota has a better home than road record. The Giants are the other way around. Another dead end! The Vikes have a great offense, but no defense. The Giants have a great defense but a weak offense. Damn it!

Hmm, maybe I’ll let the beagle pick this one. C’mere Jake, here boy! No, not “lay down,” “come here.” Now, stop licking yourself. Oh, never mind!

Well, I refuse to flip a coin. There’s got to be something that stands out. Let’s see…HELLO…they played this game last year? In the meadowlands? In December? Vikings won with a late surge from Moss, Carter, and Smith? Sounds good to me. Call it Vikings 27 - Giants 20

AFC Championship

Ravens at Raiders - Raiders by 5.5 (Each team had one play that really turned the tables last week. The Raiders’ interception for a TD when the Dolphins were driving early was a dagger that was at least a 10 point turn-around. The Ravens blocked field goal return for a TD changed the entire momentum of that game and was another 10 point turn-around. Looking at the stats, it looks like a big play turnover could be the difference maker in this one as well. Both teams have been stingy in giving up points lately, but I like the Ravens’ giveaway/takeaway ratio of 26:49, +23 and best in the league.

By the time the Superbowl rolls around we are all going to be sick of the color purple. Ravens 17 - Raiders 13.

Picking the two road teams, I must be insane. Ah, what the hell. Now, what to do for the Superbowl pick??

12

On turf, not grass. With damn near the entire Giants secondary out with injuries. Without the more mature and poised Kerry Collins. And didn’t the Vikes still have Jake Reid then?

There are several reasons to pick the Vikings in this game, but basing it on last year’s game shouldn’t be one of them.

13

Yes, the Vikings still had Jake Reed, but he was a non-factor not only in that game but most of last season. Yes it was turf, not the mud they refer to as “grass” in the meadowlands now. Yes, Collins has another year under his belt, but at that point last year he was playing with more poise than he ever had before.

There’s a lot of reasons to pick the Vikings is right. The deep play threat of Moss, the ever dangerous Robert Smith, the great route running and hands of Cris Carter. And their QB this year in Culpepper is, IMHO, better than Jeff George or Randall Cunningham. He adds a whole new dimension to the position and forces defenses to respect his scrambling (something that certainly wasn’t a concern with Jeff George).

But the fact they were able to win last year, outdoors, in the Meadowlands, and in December, does mean a lot to me. They’ve been there. Done that.

I’d also like to add that the Vikings must win in order to keep my streak of having my starting fantasy league QB make it to the playoffs for a fourth consecutive year. :wink:

14

Errr…that should be “make it to the Super Bowl…”

15

Well I’m going to side with Gazoo again. Two reasons gut insting (Giants-Minnesota) game. And sever loathing (Raiders-Baltimore) game.

[adopting Chrir Tucker voice]* I’ll never everevereverever root for the Raiders[/end Cris Tucker Voice}*

Besides my keyboards on the line if they make it to the SB.

16

Well I’m going to side with Gazoo again. Two reasons gut insting (Giants-Minnesota) game. And sever loathing (Raiders-Baltimore) game.

[adopting Chris Tucker voice]* I’ll never everevereverever root for the Raiders[/end Cris Tucker Voice]*

Besides my keyboards on the line if they make it to the SB.

17

Betting the damn house, and I was right last week, too.

Vikings over Giants, 33-14.
Raiders over Ravens, 21-10.

And so on.

18

Why Vikes? Because the Giants that beat Donovan McNabb, 20-10, will have their hands full with Daunte Culpepper, Randy Moss, Cris Carter, and Robert Smith. I’m more impressed with the Saints’ defense than I am the Giants’, and I saw what the Vikings did to the Saints.

Why Ravens? This is a tougher call for me, because I don’t really know this year’s Raiders that well. But two things: (1) their 27-0 victory over the Dolphins had as much to do with the Dolphins’ offense beating itself, IMO, as with the Raiders’ winning. The Ravens haven’t struck me as a team that beats itself. (Of course, at this point, it’s been so long since they lost, period…) (2) The Ravens’ defense is the reincarnation of the Steel Curtain. Terry Bradshaw didn’t really have to be that good, in those first two Super Bowls. Neither does Dilfer. And Dilfer seems to know it, too, which is a big plus.

19

I’m worried about the Vikes. This is one tough team and I hope my Giants can pull this off. It can be done, but it will take errorless football on the Giant’s part.

I’ve been reading Gazoo’s threads for most of this season and have only posted to gloat every now and again. But I’ve been wondering something this whole season: why the rabid hatred of the Giants? No other team had as much ill-will directed towards them.

Is it because they are in New York and everyone outside of the five boroughs just hates us? It can’t be because of bad behavior, the Giants have acted with professionalism throughout this whole season. Perhaps it is because of the lack of bad behavior. Would the Giant haters like the team better if one of the players contracted to have his wife killed? Some insist it is bad play, but, as their record indicates, the are not a bad team.

I don’t get it.

20

webmastr - Hey man, where have you been all season? Week after week we’ve had teams that were a “lock” to win losing horribly, and vice versa, and conventional-wisdom picks are running on the bad side of about 40%…you think I’m crazy enough to try to predict a winner here? Dream on.

I mean, if the Titans won last week, I’d feel pretty confident picking them over the Raiders because they seem to be a stronger team all around. Plus they’d still have home field, and that plus the playoff pressure would certainly get to the Raiders. But instead we have the Ravens, who are capable of beating anyone so long as their offense doesn’t take a nap. On the NFC side, if the Saints had all their players and beat Minnesota, I’d gladly pick them over the Giants. As it is, we have four incredibly evenly-matched teams where presuming to know who’s going to win is lunacy.

For crying out loud, if I were that good, I’d be betting on these games. :slight_smile:

Okay, here are a couple of things I can say with some confidence: The AFC Championship will be close, and the NFC Championship will come down to which side makes the most big plays (were it not for this time of the year, Minny could actually be a slight favorite). And as likely as not one of THESE predictions will get blown to bits. Just you watch.