NFL Predictions - Divisional Round

In My Humble Opinion
1

Well, a paltry 2-2 last week (3-1 vs. the spread). Apparently we should have Falcon make the picks as she got ‘em all right last week. Way to go! Now, looking at this week’s slate I see it’s even tougher than last week. I suppose that’s the way it should be though. Here goes nothin’–

Saturday

Saints 24 at Vikings 35 (I know, the Saints beat the Rams - twice - and the Rams destroyed the Vikings, so logic says the Saints should win. The fairy tale that is the Saints’ season has to come to an end at some point though. Doesn’t it? And I honestly believe that if that punt isn’t fumbled the Rams march right down the field and win it.)

Dolphins 20 at Raiders 17 (As long as Miami doesn’t find themselves in a hole early again, they can keep it close. The longer they stay in it, the better chance they have of their defense making a key play to win it.)

Sunday

Ravens 14 at Titans 17 (I hate to say it, but against any other team in the playoffs right now, I’d be picking the Dilfer-led Ravens. I think the Titans have the most balance of any team in the league and will be able to squeak out the win at home though.)

Eagles 24 at Giants 20 (Tampa’s defense is, in my opinion, tougher than the Giants, and you saw what McNabb did to them. The Giants are rested and at home, but I still think the Eagles can come through.)

Just like last week, it won’t surprise me at all if any or all of these games go completely the other way.

2

Well, I picked everything the same EXCEPT that Raiders game. However, after seeing Miami play last week, I have my doubts on how accurate I’ll be. Hopefully I can keep my perfect record, but I won’t be surprised if I don’t.

GO TITANS!

3

weirddave, I guess you and I can now be friends through the offseason. Of all the teams left, I think I want the Ravens to go all the way. The Titans being a close second. Either way, I want the team that wins that game to win the big one.

I like the Ravens style of play, and the fact that they have stomped a lot of teams with a squad comprised of few big name players. Combine that with a kickass defense, and it’s fairly easy to see why this Pittsburgh boy likes the Ravens. However, I wouldn’t mind if Art Modell had a nasty accident before they won it so he wouldn’t be able to enjoy any of it.

After saying all that, don’t get too friendly with me. Come Preseason, I’ll slap the shit outta ya. :slight_smile:

I’d like to see a Ravens-Saints Superbowl, but I have a feeling it will be Titans-Giants.

4

MB,

I picked Ravens-Saints in the Super Bowl. I think that the team that wins this weekends Balto-Tenn machup will win it all. Unfortunately for Falc, I expect that team to be Baltimore.:wink:

Gazoo,
You’re almost there…Maybe after we beat the Titans, you will finally be able to jump on the Ravens bandwagon without regrets.
R-A-V-E-N-S, GO, RAVENS!

5

Betting the damn house. And the car.

Saturday

Saints 29 at Vikings 33
Just … please? Pretty please? Just one Super Bowl, Santa, that’s all I want.

Dolphins 14 at Raiders 27
Waanstadt is a fool and he won by luck. He can’t manage an egg timer, let alone an NFL playoff clock.

Sunday

Ravens 10 at Titans 7
Eddie George took me to the fantasy championship, and I owe him. But sorry, Eddie, there’s a middle linebacker on the Ravens who’s going to eat you for lunch.

Eagles 21 at Giants 14
Giants are the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked. How did they ever manage to go 12-4? It just goes to show you that the sun shines on a dog’s ass once in a while, too.
(I just had to use that line. Couldn’t resist. Apologies to all NYG fans.)

6

I don’t think Falcon will be the least bit bothered that you expect the Ravens to win! :smiley:

That the two best teams in football aren’t meeting in the Hyperbole is unfortunate, but in many years it’s inevitable. That they’re not even meeting in one of the conference championship games, but rather in a preliminary round, shows how screwy things have gotten in the playoff setup.

Under the old 4- and 5- team playoff setups in each conference, a wildcard wouldn’t play its division champ until the conference championship, period. It should still be that way. It would hardly hurt the integrity of the system if they’d sent the Dolphins to Nashville, and the Ravens to Oakland.

7

LNO - All right, maybe it’s a little late to be asking this, but what the bloody hell is the rap against the Giants? The win in Chicago was early in the season, before anyone realized how inept they were. The win in Jacksonville came when the Jaguars were absolutely on fire and still had a shot at .500. The four losses were all too good teams (yes, Washington was a contender then, believe it or not) and none of them were blowouts. On top of that, they OWNED their division, including the team they’re facing this weekend. Granted, they didn’t have a killer schedule, but neither did the Titans or Ravens (four games against the Bengals and Browns alone). I’ve seen their games, and while they haven’t been spectacular, that didn’t stop the wins from rolling in. If they’re really the worst 12-4 team ever (whatever the hell that means), I’d like to see someone back it up.

RTFirefly - Remember, both teams benefitted from a weak division (although in fairness, there were only two divisions this year that were really competitive), and the Ravens offense has been astonishingly streaky. This should be an easy win for the Titans, although of course you never know. Yeah, I know, the Super Bowl often isn’t the best game, but that just happens. And let’s be thankful for the Super Bowls that are classics; Packers/Broncos comes to mind.

Things should get better after realignment arrives in 2002. The AFC Central, in particular, is a division that desperately needs fewer teams (or rather, fewer bad teams). IIRC, there will be eight divisions with only four wild card spots. This is great not only because it places even more emphasis on winning the division, but there will be a lot less endless jabbering about the 90 bazillion “scenarios” for the wild card contenders.

8

GO RAMS!!!

I’m just practicing for next season. Carry on.

9

It just occurred to me (okay it occurred to me a week or so ago, but I just remembered to post it thanks to comments above), this is the first year in recent memory that every division in both confrences sent two teams to the playoffs. Usually there is at least one division (NFC Central and AFC East most recently) that sends at least 3, leaving another with only their division champ.

As to the Giants, no bad team has ever been 12-4. It just doesn’t happen that way in the NFL. They may not be flashy and exciting, or even dominate. But they obviously do enough to win 3/4 of the time.

10

I’m with you this time Gazoo. Just wish Miami’s offense was more potent, I know the Raiders are going to lose, but I’d love to see a blow out or something.

11

Unfortunately, the only time Miami’s offense looked like they had the ability to blow someone out, the defense left before the fourth quarter started and they lost to the Jets on a Monday Nighter. Go figure.

12

I saw that game, and predicted that Jets turn around to my Miami buddy oh about half way through the 2nd quarter. You’re right I haven’t seen their offense perform like that since. Good thing I’m counting on their DEFENSE to carry the day.

13

I’ve been called to provide a cite. This is my first time. I feel so tingly.

And what better cites than statistics? (also knows as lies and damn lies …) Especially for such an opinionated topic as the NFL.

Off I go to research, DKW, and if I can’t find anything to prove myself right, I’ll happily concede that the Giants are better than I thought they were.

14

A few hastily-compiled arguments as to why the Giants are a weak 12-4 team. I’ll try to break it down into specific points, and back those up with data where I can.

They have an unduly easy schedule. Two games against Dallas, two games against Arizona-- these are gimmes. I agree that the AFC Central is unduly easy as well, but there’s a difference between the G-Men and the Ravens/Titans, which I get to in point #2.

Their margin of victory is pathetic, and their margin of defeat is execrable. They won by, on average, 10.83 points. This seems ordinary on the surface, but seven of the Giants’ twelve wins came by a touchdown or less. Compare that to the Ravens, who only had three victories decided by that small of a margin, and won by 17.75 points on average.

Their margin of defeat averaged 12 points in their four losses (10, 14, 10, 14). The Ravens lost by 7.75 points in their four games (13, 7, 8, 3), and the Titans lost by a heartwrenching 3, 1, and 3 points in their three losses. Double digit losses every time you lose, but double digit wins not even half the time you win?

Conclusion: The Giants can barely win, but they can lose big. The Ravens win big, but can barely lose. And the pitiable Titans came within three field goals of going 16-0. And this ties into point #3.

Their wins were abysmal. Beating Arizona by only 5 points, at home, is bad. Beating Atlanta 13-6, only a week after Philadelphia racked 38 points up on them, is bad. Beating the Cowboys 19-14 the next week is just as dangerous, and then only 17-13 in week 16.

In their defense, New York did shellac Pittsburgh 30-10 in week 15, and did solidly control Philadelphia 33-18 and 24-7. But they had no other games where they demonstrated control over what was happening, rather than winning in a squeaker.

What all this shows me is that the Giants are lucky to be where they are. Maybe they don’t have as much respect as they deserve. They’ve been quietly winning games, but the reason the wins are so quiet is that there’s so little to be proud of.

Of course, I’ll eat my words after they beat the Eagles and the Vikings, which I fully expect though pray never happens.

Thus, in conclusion, I feel that the Giants are overrated underperformers, and will be shown to be the frauds they are. Probably by Baltimore or Tennessee, because no one else in the NFC can stop them. :wink:

15

More Giants stats to mull over (use them as you may)–

Record 12-4 (tied 2nd)
Total Offense (13th - 11th rush, 13th pass)
Total Defense (5th - 2nd rush, 16th pass)
Takeaway/Giveaway +7 (9th)
Points Scored 328 (15th)
Points Allowed 246 (5th)

Sagarian Rankings:
Rank - 24.54 (8th)*
Strength of Schedule (26th)**

Dunkel Ranking - 129.2 (7th)***

*For comparison, the 11-5 Broncos have a rank of 22.89 (13th) and have the 29th strongest schedule.

**FYI- The Saints had the lowest of anyone in the playoffs with the 30th strongest schedule. At 10-6 they rank 17th with a rating of 21.11.

***The Raiders are first on the Dunkel system at 129.2.

16

Here’s Sagarian and Dunkel ranks for everyone still in (not that I trust these one iota, just throwing them out for argument)–

Sagarian

  1. Titans, 30.09, 22nd strength of schedule
  2. Ravens, 28.74, 25th
  3. Dolphins, 28.03, 10th
  4. Raiders, 27.23, 31st
  5. Eagles, 25.32, 27th
  6. Giants, 24.54, 26th
  7. Vikings, 24.53, 16th
  8. Saints, 21.11, 30th

Dunkel

  1. Raiders 135.7
  2. Titans 133.1
  3. Ravens 132.8
  4. Giants 129.2
  5. Dolphins 125.3
  6. Eagles 125.3
  7. Saints 125.1
  8. Minnesota 121.7
17

This weekend, we’ll undoubtedly get a bunch of the “It’s hard to beat a team three times in a season” bushwa.

I mean, it’s true, when starting from 0-0, but we’re not. The real question is, when one team is 2-0 against another in the regular season, and they meet in the postseason, how often does the 2-0 team make it 3-0?

18

Teams that went 3-0 versus opponent in one season:
1999 Titans vs Jaguars
1997 Packers vs Buccaneers
1997 Patriots vs Dolphins
1994 Steelers vs Browns
1993 Raiders vs Broncos
1991 Chiefs vs Raiders
1986 Giants vs Redskins
1982 Dolphins vs Jets

Teams that went 0-2 versus opponent before winning in playoffs:
1998 Cardinals vs Cowboys
1994 Bears vs Vikings
1992 Chargers vs Chiefs
1989 Steelers vs Oilers
1983 Raiders vs Seahawks

So, eight out of thirteen times, the 2-0 team wins in the playoff matchup. However, three of the 0-2 teams that won did win on the road.

Statistics courtesy of CNN’s fantabulous clip on this very subject here.

19

LNO - I wasn’t asking for a cite (and I certainly know better than to put my faith in statistics). But you did answer my question, so…thanks. Yeah. For the record, nearly all my info comes from espn.com in case you want to look it up.

I suppose you could make the case that the Giants don’t deserve home field throughout the playoffs, but a lot of it is really subjective. Like I mentioned earlier, none of the losses have been lopsided (even Minnesota got totally spanked twice) and they romped all over their division. Consistent play and winning the games that count the most will get a team to the playoffs in good position nearly every time. Tthe fact that the Giants haven’t won any massive blowouts is of minor importance at best. Incidentally, points in the division is the fifth division tiebreaker, but it almost never comes to that.

And of course, if the Giants didn’t deserve the top spot, that leaves the question of who did. Eagles? Could’ve had it if they didn’t drop both Giants games. Vikings? Looked good for a while, but completely mailed in the end of the season…plus, they’re the Vikings. Rams? Buccaneers? Too little consistency and some really ugly losses. Saints weren’t even worth considering.

You see. Sometimes the #1 seed is a 14-2 juggernaut that’s an overwhelming favorite for the Super Bowl. And sometimes it’s an unspectacular grind-it-out unit that managed to come out on top when the dust settled. That’s just the way the game works.

Oh, and I didn’t mean to single you out or anything. It’s just that this is at least the fifth time that I’ve heard that the Giants are far worse than their record and I was hoping that someone could fill me in. Again, thanks.

20

Good call, again, Gazoo, on the Eagles/Giants game. Now that Warren has adjusted to the running game in Philly, and McNabb is on cruise control (Marshall who?), it’s full steam ahead until we visit the Bucs in Tampa, and then they can tell the Ravens how good the Eagles really are.

My picks, FWIW:

Minnesota over New Orleans
Oakland over Miami
Baltimore over Tennessee
Phildelphia over New Jersey