No one’s done the Houston Texans yet, so I’ll give it a shot, even though I’m not a “real fan” of them. (Or any team, really.)
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5-7
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Sure, they can make the playoffs. The AFC South is having a hard time this year, with the Jags and Colts at 6-5, and the Titans at 5-6. A wild card berth is almost certainly out of the question, however.
3b) To make the playoffs, they’d realistically have to run the table, beating Baltimore at home, Tennessee away, Denver away, and Jacksonville at home. The last three are certainly doable and I would think the Texans would be favored in all three games, if I had to set the lines now. They will get utterly crushed by Baltimore, however.
Indy has two games with Tennessee, a game with Dallas, Jacksonville at home, and Oakland. Maybe Indy loses the Dallas game? Jacksonville usually plays them tough too, for some reason. So if Indy loses to both Dallas and Jacksonville, and Houston runs the table, I think Houston wins on intra-division tiebreaker. Good luck.
Jacksonville has Houston, Indy, Tennessee, Oakland, Washington. I see them going 3-2 over that stretch. If they beat Indy, then I see them going 4-1 and winning the division. In either case, Houston really has no shot of making the playoffs.
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The Good: Houston’s offense is very, very good (2nd in DVOA), with one of the top playmakers at RB (Arian Foster), and WR (Andre Johnson). Schaub is a top-10 QB. However, this comment I read somewhere about Schaub is totally true: "Matt Schaub is like if a team of scientists were going to build the prototypical NFL QB, but built him with a flaw that he would go completely to pieces two to three times a game, at the absolute worst possible time. And let’s not get me started about his attempts to “run” the 2-minute drill. It’d be funny to see him in Philadelphia. Schaub, Foster, and Johnson are all in their prime, and Foster is actually somewhat young (24). Johnson has been fighting off a nagging high-ankle sprain for the last two months, which might account for his decline in production this year, over others. At TE, Owen Daniels is not back to 2008/ first half of '09 levels, and at this point, I wonder if he ever will. Joel Dreessen and James Casey have been adequate backups. Draft 3 TEs in a year, and one of them is bound to turn out. (Sigh.)
The O-Line, will not be mistaken for the Hogs, but is adequate for protecting Schaub (16th according to FO) and opening up holes (1st through 7th, depending on which FO run blocking stat you like). They are infinitely better than past Houston O-Lines. I do not know how much of their improvement is due to getting rid of Alex Gibbs, and presumably, much of his zone-blocking scheme.
The Offense, in short, is very good. It is handicapped by poor 2-minute performance, by silly penalties at the most inconvenient time, and by bizarre playcalling, also at the most inconvenient time. (You have the NFL’s leading rusher, against the Colts, who can’t stop anybody on the ground, and you call 85% passing plays?!) But the tools are there for a juggernaut, if properly used.
Houston’s Special Teams are mediocre, which is an improvement from where they were on FGs. Neil Rackers is no longer the same kicker as Mr 6-6 in Mexico City, but he at least has not ripped out the hearts of Texans fans the way that Kris Brown seemed to do on a weekly basis. His KO distance isn’t too shabby, but return DVOA is one of the worst in the league. Matt Turk is adequate to mediocre. Unlike San Diego, Special Teams are not the reason the Texans lose games.
Which leads us to 5) The Bad: The Defense, specifically, pass defense.
My God, the Texans are bad at pass defense. (31st DVOA) Until this last game, I think they were historically bad at pass defense, but that’s what playing a 3rd string QB does for you. Despite this being an uncapped year, mgmt let Dunta Robinson go to the Falcons. O.K., I can see that, Dunta is certainly not worth 12 million a year. I believe that’s the 2nd highest CB salary in the NFL, FWIW, tied with Asante Samuel and just behind “Scrabble” Asomugha. (What is Revis making anyways?) But Robinson was pretty much the only veteran CB presence in that secondary. Jacque Reeves was a veteran, but not very good, and isn’t playing at all, which should tell you something. The Texans put their eggs in the basket of Glover Quin and new first round pick Kareem Jackson. Jackson is an interesting case, as it’s another example of Texans’ mgmt outsmarting themselves. At the time Jackson was up, Kyle Wilson and Devin McCourty were also available. Wilson was thought to be superior to both. Instead the Texans chose Jackson, and plugged him in at CB #1, where he has been absolutely abysmal. When I was doing the SDMB Mock NFL Draft a few months ago, I recognized that the secondary was in deep shit, and made a trade for Scrabble, who, until his hamstring issues, was worth the crazy salary he makes. Despite the Texans being one of the more profitable franchises and this being an uncapped year, and the Offense being in its prime, Mgmt decided they did not need a splashy free agent acquisition or aggressive trade. They are reaping the harvest of this shortsightedness. Jason Allen, the infamous “Hole-in-Zone” from FO analysis, is starting at CB. And that really should tell you all you need to know about the Texans’ Secondary. At least C.C. Brown is someone else’s problem now.
The D-Line, despite Mario Williams and other multiple 1st round picks is still mediocre at best. They are unable to consistently generate pressure or collapse the pocket, in particular because Williams likes to take plays, and games, off. Thankfully, Amobi Okoye, is finally starting to show some signs that he gets it. Still, the D-Line is middle of the road and, while a problem, is not instantly fatal to this team winning games. Connor Barwin showed flashes of being an effective pass rushing DE, and perhaps he’ll start next year after rehab.
The linebacking corps is the heart of the defense, and losing D-Rookie of the Year DeMeco Ryans hurt a lot more than people are giving credit for. (At this point, Hamlet is telling me to shut the hell up about injuries already.) Brian Cushing is just not the same player he was last year, and really needs to be as creative in finding the next generation of PEDs to get on as he was in his excuse for the positive HCG test. Zac Diles, Kevin Bentley, Xavier Adibi: all are “just a guy.”
Finally in the Bad column, we get to the coaching. Gary Kubiak is overmatched as an NFL head coach. By all accounts, he is a great guy, a good offensive coordinator, and probably a fine human being. However, he has failed to prepare this team mentally. His teams are characterized by: stupid penalties; multiple giant plays given up on a weekly basis, due to his players showing poor awareness, as opposed to just being beat by superior skill; baffling playcalling, both during the middle of games and at the end of halves; and a lack of preparedness to start games. The Texans almost by rote, end up down 14 points to start and then make a furious comeback. Week after week, regardless of whether the staff has time to prepare or not. I am tired of seeing 3rd and longs, and knowing the opposing team will convert, usually when their WR#1 is in single coverage 20 yards down the field. The Jets game, where Jason Allen doesn’t guard the sideline on a play where the Jets have no timeouts and seconds to go. The first Titans game last year, where Chris Johnson was split wide, and consequently left completely uncovered for an 70 yd touchdown pass.
Just too many mental mistakes and tolerance for average performance. Kubiak and his staff need to go. I am on the fence as to whether the GM, Richard Smith, needs to go also. The Ryans draft was very good.
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Future outlook. I fear that Bob McNair, Texans owner, prefers profit to success. I want him to break the bank to bring in a head coach who will motivate this team to not accept mediocrity anymore. I don’t know whether Cowher is the guy (especially since he’s not bringing LeBeau with him), but the Texans need someone to cut down on the mental stupidity. The secondary needs to improve now. I do not know whether Jackson will be a bust—CB’s not named Revis traditionally take a year or two to get it, unlike RBs—but the current situation is intolerable. At least find a FS who can cut down on the continual stream of big plays.
Unfortunately, I see the Texans winning 3 of the next 4, and McNair continuing to keep Kubiak on. The lock-out looming, and McNair faced with the prospect of paying out Kubiak’s staff’s contracts, while also paying for a brand new staff, will probably stay McNair’s hand from the firings that desperately need to happen. With Kubiak, this will be,** at best**, a 10-6 wild card level team that will get bounced in the first round. As it is, continue to expect more 7-9 to 9-7 seasons, as long as the PSLs continue to be bought and the luxury suites continue to be sold out. I envy Patriots fans, where their coach and management is not afraid to make hard decisions, and their team is nearly always mentally prepared. It’s too bad, as with the Titans going into a funk, the injury bug biting Indy, and the Jaguars being the Jaguars, this was really the Texans’ year to shine and make a big splash in the playoffs. What a waste.