Actually, I’d say it’s the Eagles, a small, but notable gap, the Cowboys and Giants. There is a lot of offensive talent in that division, that’s for sure.
I remain unconvinced that Jeremy Maclin is on par with Steve Smith.
He doesn’t have to be. Desean Jackson is so clearly the best receiver in the division. Dez Bryrant would be number two.
You might be right, but unfortunately, it’s more likely that Maclin isn’t on par with Smith because he’s a level above Smith to begin with.
Now, that initial reaction you just had where your head almost exploded, hold on to that for one second and hear me out… because, honestly, I would have said Smith was better too. But Maclin is really demolishing Smith statistically. He has a better career yards per game, career yards after the catch, and more touchdowns (in two fewer seasons!), as well as a significant edge in yards per completion. Yeah, Smith has that one really nice year, but it came as a product of getting so many targets, which Maclin has never had. Through week six, Maclin even had a better catch rate than Smith did (though that’s fallen off lately as the Eagles have all forgotten how to catch in recent weeks). Maclin’s got a huge edge in DVOA and DYAR, and his 2010 season is on pace to be at least as good as Smith’s 2009, and probably better.
And Maclin is three years younger.
The more interesting part is whether DeSean Jackson is actually better than Maclin. I posted about this, I believe, last season and heading into this season. Because Jackson is so athletic and so much faster than everyone else, he gets all the notoriety for all of his huge plays… but Maclin is almost as athletic and is much better on the shorter stuff. He’s a much more polished receiver than Jackson, and I like his overall skill more than Jackson.
But when I raised the position about the Eagles having the most weapons in the NFL, I wasn’t meaning just skill and stats. I’d say Maclin is better than Jackson as a receiver, but Jackson is clearly the better weapon. I’m not sure how I could effectively describe the nuance in that distinction or how I could frame it in a way to properly debate it though. But I think most people can understand it when they hear it, and I’d take Jackson and Vick as the top weapons in the NFL at their positions.
And I’d take McCoy over any other back in the NFC East, too. He’s quietly become one of the most complete backs in the entire NFL, especially with the huge strides he’s made this season in pass protection. I’m guessing he’ll start making more noise in the next couple seasons.
If every team were starting over with a complete fantasy draft – to be reshuffled again after a single year so age isn’t an issue – there’s no way that Vick would or should be the first QB taken.
No, he shouldn’t. Then again, if you held a fantasy draft where the league’s defensive coordinators were the owners and you had to draft who you’d least like to see as the opposing QB, Vick would probably be in the top three, if not a landslide #1. This sorta goes into that nebulous territory where I try to differentiate between “QB skill” and “weapon.” No other QB in the league forces you to change what you do on defense like he does. And he’s impossible to gameplan for. There are at least half a dozen better QBs when you consider just pure passers, but none of them make as much an impact on dictating the terms of the game as Vick does.
And with the way Vick has progressed under Reid and Co., it might be time to start rethinking his place as a passer amongst his peers too. I think we all still judge the guy based on his days as a Falcon when he’s obviously a much different player. Another interesting question is just how long does Vick have to continue to complete 64% of his passes and have a 100+ QB Rating before people stop thinking of him as the “unpolished passer” that he’s always been? I admit I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop and for Vick to regress into what he was as a Falcon… but it isn’t happening.
Oh come on. The rest of your post was interesting, but YAC? That’s a product of the system, not the player. Swap the receivers for both teams and Smith will have the YAC and Maclin won’t.
I’ll ask: Is there any WR who has caught 100+ receptions in a season who isn’t exceptional?
That’s partly true, but not entirely. Unless you stink, you’re going to get chances to run with the ball after the catch. Sure, some systems feature this, some don’t. But it isn’t as if the Giants are asking their WRs to run hooks on every pattern. I’ll grant that it’s of marginal value in the comparison.
I’m certain you could go down the list of most receptions in a season and find a few who aren’t very good who still had over 100 in a season. Marty Booker comes to mind. It’s just bizarre to me that you’ll point out that YAC is a product of the system but catches isn’t. I mean, come on, Smith had almost 160 targets that season (fourth in the league). He got 100+ catches because they just focused on him so much. He wasn’t really special that season. I’d even go as far as to say Jason Avant is better than Steve Smith, but Avant has never had the usage to prove it and I haven’t seen enough of Smith to gauge by anything more than stats.
Mike Furrey.
Mike Furrey is a good example, thanks much.
Receptions are the primary measure of a receiver, much like yards are for a running back. (Even though average might be better in both cases.)
I’m reminded of my debate with Omni years ago about Ben Roethlisberger, where I argued he was awesome due to his rating and Omni argued that his rating was inflated by throwing fewer passes. Turns out Omni is right; throwing more passes statistically lowers your passer rating. There could be a similar effect with receivers.
Jason Avant has already set his career best mark in receptions this year with 45, on pace for ~56 for the season. That’s just not comparable to a 100-catch receiver regardless of the yardage disparity, IMO.
You point to last season as an aberration, but this season Smith had 47 catches through 8 games, then he missed the next four games due to a torn pectoral muscle. I think a case can be made that he looks to be a 90+ catch receiver year-in and year-out. It’s not like he got all the targets in the first half of this season. If anything, Nicks got more targets.
Haywood Jeffires?
The Saints. Best QB in the NFC, and a fistful of receivers-Colston, Henderson, Meachum, Moore, Shockey, Graham, a surprisingly effective committee of running backs, and Reggie Bush as an X-factor. They have legitimate potential to score on any snap, from anywhere on the field.
Also, looks like they’ve all but clinched a playoff spot. 10-3 so far, second best in the NFC I think. Need to win out–including @Atlanta, and hope Atlanta loses another game to win the division.
Winning out alone gives Atlanta a loss. Do you mean Atlanta needs to lose two games for the Saints to have a chance at the division?
#@#%#^&%^%*^^&%#^%^@
Yeah, I think so. From what I understand, Atlanta has all the tiebreakers, so the only way the Saints win the division is if we have a better overall record.
And Wins are a primary measure of a pitcher, but we know how valuable they are to determining the true measure of a pitcher. I don’t buy into receptions. It’s a usage stat. The more usage you get, the more of that stat you accumulate, generally. In a way, points in the NBA is a usage stat too. Scoring 30 a night is remarkable, but doing so on 35 shots a night isn’t so much. Avant’s reception numbers are so low because he’s solidified into that possession 3rd WR role, and doesn’t see nearly as much action. Smith strikes me as the same type of player, but Avant’s numbers indicate he’s just better at it. His catch rate is better, and has been for two seasons now. His DVOA is better. His Yards/Catch is better.
Put Avant in Smith’s spot and it seems obvious to me that he’d put up better numbers than Smith. You might sell me on Nicks, but Smith seems to me to be overachieving and hiding some very pedestrian stats.
The guys over at Advanced NFL Stats.com (scroll down to the Oct. 22nd post) have a really interesting stat called “Expected Catch Rate.” I haven’t looked into it too deeply, but the basic idea is that they charted a correlation between high catch rates and how often a receiver runs routes under 15 yards (higher rates obviously corresponded to fewer “deep” routes). They then compared how a WR’s actual catch rate differed from what his “expected catch rate” should be based on that WR’s percentage of deep routes. They think this difference indicates which receivers have the most reliable hands, or, which ones are best at “going and getting” a pass. While they only have numbers through week 6 of 2010, I found it interesting that Jeremy Maclin was third in the NFL and Jason Avant was 6th. For comparison, DeSean Jackson was 55th, Steve Smith was 25th and Hakeem Nicks was 30th. Take it for what you will, but I thought it was pretty interesting.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The short version: we’re a year or two away from the first of maybe a bunch of 12-win seasons.
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8-5 (2-3 in division; 6-3 in NFC)
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They’re one game behind the Giants for the second NFC wild card, and two behind the Saints for the first wild card, with a game at New Orleans in Week 17. They are eliminated from the division hunt, as they’re three back of Atlanta with three to play, and the Falcons own the tie breaker.
3a. To make the playoffs, we’ll definitely have to beat Detroit and Seattle (both home games), and probably beat the Saints. The Giants and Packers (who we’re tied with) have to play each other, so that helps.
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Well, we’re probably not going to make the playoffs, and if we do, we’ll probably be one-and-done, especially considering the injuries of the last few weeks. However, if you asked any Buccaneers fan before the season how they’d feel about an 8-5 record at this point, they’d take it in a heartbeat. I knew the team wasn’t as bad as it appeared to be last year, but recordwise nobody expected much improvement, and certainly not a winning record.
It’s the youngest team in the league, and it’s not close. I posted the starting offense and defense for Week 8 in that week’s NFL thread, which included nine rookies. Of the combined starts by the defense, Ronde Barber has more than one third. Cadillac Williams is the old man of the offense, with six seasons.
Coach Raheem Morris, the youngest coach in the league, has to be the odds-on favorite for Coach of the Year. He’s taken a team from fire sale to playoff contention in one year, and he’s done it with a front office that can’t spend any money on free agents (the Bucs are $40 million under the cap and have the third lowest player payroll in the league, thanks to the Glazers’ financial troubles). Morris has no-names at every position producing, and half of them are rookies.
The team does nearly everything quite well, which is especially surprising. 22nd in passing offense (but 3rd-best in interceptions thrown); 11th in rushing offense; 11th in pass defense; 12th in scoring defense; and 6th in turnover differential. They’ve also been penalized less than any team in the league other than the Jets, which is perhaps the most amazing stat of all considering all those rookies and second-year players. -
Well, it’s the youngest team in the league, and everyone knows what that means. Well, maybe everyone doesn’t. We don’t turn the ball over and we don’t get penalized. Unfortunately, we do give up a ton of yards on the ground; 27th in rush defense, and allowing 4.7 YPC. We also don’t rush the passer well; with 20 sacks, we’re tied for 30th.
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Future outlook doesn’t get any better than this. Providing the front office gets its shit together, and is able to keep the core of the team in Tampa, the Buccaneers could be this decade’s Colts. In Year 2, Josh Freeman is on pace to throw fewer than 9 interceptions, and more than 20 touchdown passes. Mike Williams has the hands, speed and size to put up Chad Johnson numbers. Arrelious Benn is turning to a legitimate big play threat opposite him with Andre Johnson’s athleticism, although he’ll probably take longer to develop. LeGarrette Blount wasn’t even drafted, but in half a season he’s firmly established himself as an NFL-caliber back. He’s not a complete player at all - can’t catch, can’t block - but that’s what we have Cadillac Williams for. Williams can’t run anymore, but he’s an excellent receiver and a better blocker. He and Kellen Winslow complement the youth elsewhere on the offense nicely. The offensive line includes Pro Bowl caliber talent at left tackle (Donald Penn) and right guard (Davin Joseph), and Jeremy Zuttah has played at a Pro Bowl level this season while filling in at all three interior line spots. Five different rookies have started games on the line, and all have played well. The weak spot is at right tackle, where Jeremy Trueblood is on IR, and has never been a consistent pass blocker.
The defense is a bit of a different story. Gerald McCoy didn’t play well at first, and suddenly became dominant during the 49ers game. After 4 straight games with a sack he’s now on IR with a torn bicep. The rest of the defensive line is a hodgepodge of rookies and journeymen, and none are particularly impressive. The linebackers are much better; former 7th-round pick Geno Hayes is a playmaker and a worthy replacement for Derrick Brooks. Barrett Ruud is a very solid MLB. On the strong side, we’ve had a few different guys play well in spurts. The secondary is really the weak spot of the defense; Aqib Talib is a future star, but Ronde Barber’s career is winding down. EJ Biggers has been solid at nickelback, and started last week in relief of Talib, but the fourth, fifth and sixth corners are so bad the team doesn’t even use the dime package.
Cody Grimm was a revelation at free safety, but he’s now on IR, as is Tanard Jackson, the original starter. Hopefully, one will move to strong safety next year. Sean Jones has been decent this year, but isn’t good enough in coverage to make up for the lack of pass rush.
Rookie Ryan Malone has been just good enough to keep his job at punter. Frankly, I don’t understand why we didn’t just sign one in free agency - there are a ton of decent ones available. I was mad when Matt Bryant got cut (and I’m madder still considering how he’s shored up Atlanta’s kicking game) but Connor Barth has been surprisingly reliable- much more so than Bryant was in Tampa, in fact. -
With 180 straight starts, Ronde Barber now has the second longest active streak in the league at any position - and nobody but me is talking about him. The only reason he doesn’t have 205 straight starts is because the Bucs came out in a one-corner package for the first snap of a game in 1999. He’s third all time in defensive touchdowns, and first in touchdowns on takeways in general (picks, fumbles, blocked kicks and punts). He’s the only player in league history with 40 picks and 25 sacks, and the all time sack leader among corners. Put him in the Hall of Fame.
Hmm, it looks like the Patriots have an effective 2-game lead over the Steelers for #1 seed (one game in the standings, plus the tiebreaker). Their remaning schedule is the probably Rodgers-less Packers, the Bills, and the Dolphins. I don’t see them losing two of those games, if any, so the AFC Champion will have to go through Foxboro.
Here is our primary disconnect. I buy into receptions, and always have. Agree to disagree?
So DeSean Jackson’s performance last night was less impressive to you than a 10 catch 100 yard game?