Seems like a better than 50-50 chance that Herm Edwards and Marvin Lewis will get canned. Wade Phillips could be on thin ice as is Jack Del Rio. I expect at least a couple more announcements before the weekend.
I don’t think there’s any way Marvin gets fired, the way Mike Brown runs his organization. NO WAY. Marvin would resign first.
Yeah, they are too cheap to eat that contract, but he really deserves to be gone. Still, perhaps with everyone else doing it the Bengals will do it out of peer pressure.
Yeah. So you exchanged him with a guy who, two years later, almost didn’t make the playoffs at all, and shouldn’t have, had the Broncos played just a bit better in week 16. Smart move. :rolleyes:
Cleveland has a very patient owner. Giving Crennel 4 years when it was clear he had no clue from day 1 is patient to a fault.
I also think there’s probably more talent on the Cleveland team - they’re closer to being an NFL quality defense by far - they just need to shed the retarded scheme and get a coach they want to play for.
Cleveland has an indifferent owner, which in general is preferable to having a meddlesome owner like Jerry Jones or Al Davis (even Arthur Blank walking around the sidelines rubs me the wrong way). He’s more interested in his English Premier League team than he is the Browns. I get the impression that this whole process of finding new personnel guys is a big pain in the ass for him.
Detroit replaces the guy who destroyed the team from a guy in-house. If they want to get better, they need to look without. That franchise is diseased.
Mike Shanahan, for instance?
Who saw that coming?
I never thought Shanahan was a particularly good coach but I didn’t think he’d ever be fired.
No, that wasn’t how he crafted his formula. He factored in the chance to stop them as a separate variable. Then he said, in that case, the Jets get the ball back on the 20, and now they’d have a 10% chance to score. Half the chance compared to the last time they had the ball on the 20. That’s doubling the chances because of having timeouts. From a guy whose cite completely ignores timeouts, which therefore casts doubt over his entire analysis.
He also seems to have based the chance on stopping them based on normal drives. I have pointed out that in this situation, it’s not a normal drive at all. You pretty much have to run it twice into 8 or 9 men in the box because of the enormous pressure to keep the clock moving. This has to drastically reduce the chances of getting a first down. This also calls his analysis into question.
No they don’t After the punt, the next drive starts with a 1st and 10. If you’re saying you factored the chances to make a stop into the 10% chance to get a TD, then you double-counted that when you added in a variable for the chance to make a stop. I don’t think that’s what you did at all. Instead, I think this post was a retcon. It doesn’t reflect the original formula you posted.
I have no problem with using aggregate statistics in football to predict the odds of success. My appeal to “don’t you watch games” wasn’t about that.
I was saying that your aggregates include data from completely unrelated situations, making them invalid. Recognizing that the situations are completely unrelated is something I would expect to be obvious when watching games.
In a nutshell, which is more likely:
-
Convert a first down early in the second quarter.
-
Convert a first down with 2:21 left in the game, winning by no more than 7, your opponent has all their timeouts.
I say the second situation is far less likely to yield a first down. Which is why I take issue with your numbers, which seem to be based on the chances to get a generic first down without regard for the situation.
EDIT: Many have also expressed percentages of drives that yield a TD. Again I say you’re mixing your pools. Getting a TD late in the game tends to be easier because defenses tend to employ prevent or prevent-like defenses to avoid getting burnt by a big play.
No. I said the Jets will force a 3 and out two thirds of the time – two thirds of normal drives do not end after three plays. What percentage of the time do you think the Jets force a 3 and out?
First of all, the post wasn’t about the formula, it was about your assertion that only one of the drives started with a do or die play.
Second, of course this fact is reflected in the formula. The formulas are comparing two separate drives: the one that starts after forcing Seattle to punt, and the one starts *after *converting on 4th & 2. The chances of never getting to begin either drive are factored in: in the first formula, the “.5” represents the 50% chance of converting (again, it’s actually greater). In the second formula, the “.65” represents the 65% chance of forcing a 3 and out.
I think you sort of do. Any time I make this kind of argument, your response is always hostile, usually bereft of a competing statistical analysis, and sometimes indicative of a less than complete understanding of what I’m saying (as with the formulas above). This isn’t the first you’ve told me that if I’d only watch the game better I’d know my statistics are wrong and/or don’t apply, and, like I said, I’m not really amenable to that argument. A couple of times I’ve tried to meet you half way on these only to be told that I’m as wrong as ever.
So, I don’t know that either of us is able to resist, but it’s probably unproductive for us to have these specific kinds of football discussions. I don’t know.
Can we take the argument over punting to its own thread?
Norv’s already won 2 more playoff games with the Bolts than Marty did.
The Lions have to pursue Martz or Mangini since the both have last names starting with M. That is important in our organization. Wonder what Moeller is up to?
Wasn’t Martz the Lions OC before?
Just letting you guys in the NFL threads know I’m trying to run a contest to predict the results of the playoffs and everyone is welcome to submit an entry.
http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=10637459
Yes please.
Yep. he was fired. He gets broomed every place he goes. How can the Lions overlook a guy with those credentials? Plus his last name starts with M.
He ends up in power wars with the head coaches.
Well, he was the head coach in St. Louis before coming to Detroit.