That’s a fair point, especially since google says the 2pt success rate in 2018 was a staggering 60%.
I’m more interested in the thought experiment where a PAT is 100% and a 2pt is exactly 50%.
The way I look at it is this:
I need another TD
I need one 2pt conversion, with little way to improve the odds on it
I need one PAT, with no way to improve the odds on it
No matter what we do, we need all three of the above things. Going for a 2pt first and missing cuts down on the chances of the TD by a substantial margin.
Since I can’t really change the other two, I focus my decision on maximizing the chances of the TD.
But if you go for the 2pt on the second time and miss, you just lose. Going for the 2pt first and making it means you know you can get the maximum chance of the TD.
…half the time. The other half of the time you missed the 2pt and essentially lost the game right there and then.
Any way you slice, if you miss the 2pt conversion you need a miracle to win. Strategizing a way to maximize the miracle odds is a fool’s errand, and is really only applicable to videogames. When you have real people (athletes and coaches) involved, it’s not a sound strategy to put all your eggs in one 50% play before you absolutely have to.
(However, in the real world, with the success rate of 60%, I can see selling that to the team, ownership, and fans.)
It is also only half the time if you save the 2 pointer for later, you just don’t know it yet.
I’m just saying that it is irrelevant to say that going for 2 later maximizes your chance to get the TD, because 50% of the time, you know for sure you should maximize the TD chance even if you went for the 2 points early, and the other 50% of the time, maximizing the TD chance just means you lose by 2 instead of 9.
Yes, although that doesn’t worry me half as much as those fucking “real person” Chevy commercials. I’d like to bludgeon everyone involved in them to death with a tire iron, reserving special treatment for the smug bearded asshole in the grey jacket.
I did not foresee Todd Gurley being the main cause of the Rams losing so far. He drops one pass, which goes for a interception and another Saints score. Then drops another in the red zone that should have gone for a huge first down.
Speaking as a Chief’s fan, they are actually (and I think for the first time in a long time?) underdogs. Disrespected, not so much, although I guess Vegas having the temerity to install them as underdogs after seven years is a bit disrespectful.
And think of those 11-month old Pat’s fans who’ve never seen their team win an AFC championship? don’t remember where I saw that, but I liked it