There may be no reason to make them a favorite, but there are valid reasons to expect they could win. Not least is their playoff record of the recent past and the resulting “when push comes to shove we often prevail” attitude.
re: tiebreaking in the AFC, the Chargers at this point look like they will be the odd team out in most potential scenarios. The real problems facing the Chargers are a) how they change if Gates is out for an extended period, b) their difficult schedule down the stretch, and c) their relative inconsistency week-to-week this year. I really don’t think they’re going to finish with as good a record as the Steelers or even the Jags (who have a fairly cream-puff schedule on the season) unless some things fall into place for them… even though I would argue that SD is a better team than the Jags.
As for the Patriots and the quality of their division, well, I agree. On the other hand, the Patriots have only played two division games so far, believe it or not (remember that early season schedule? now comes the reward), and one of them was the at Miami game that is annually a lot more difficult than it should be (in recent memory, even while they have been dominating the league, they lost last year there and won the year before in overtime). I think next week’s game is going to be pretty big for New England: Kansas City is a pretty decent team that does one thing incredibly well (run the football), and is some variation of average in most of the other facets of the game (especially since Green has been having a sort of down year thus far). This is the type of team that Belichick has eaten up in recent memory, and the Pats finally have a little momentum going. After this week, they have four extremely winnable division games, and a home game against a Tampa team where we’re not really sure exactly how good they are (and it tends to depend largely on how the young guys, Cadillac and Simms, play from week to week). Now, realistically, the Patriots should probably come out 10-6, but it probably doesn’t matter because none of those other three teams are going to win the division, and even at 12-4, they lack the tiebreaker with the Broncos, so they’re effectively three games back there.
In all likeliness, then, they’re heading into a first-round home playoff game with hopefully improved health (Corey Dillon, Kevin Faulk, Richard Seymour, and Matt Light by then, among others) as well as the momentum from a successful second half of the season. I see no reason why they wouldn’t be favored over the Jags in that game, especially with Jacksonville’s inconsistency on the road (OT to beat the Jets, OT to beat Tommy Maddox Steelers, loss to St. Louis, 3 point win over Tennessee, complete inability to score on Indy).
Wow, that got long fast, reaching into the future and all. Part of the fun of this is how we can all see it in different ways, though… and also how things change. A month ago, instead of denigrating the Steeler running game, we were saying how amazing it was and how they had three backs, any one of which half the other teams in the league would kill to have. Realistically, it’s probably somewhere in between, though I would say having Tommy Maddox at QB is an absolute killer for the running game. Also, we haven’t had five 11-5 or better teams in one conference since the switch to the current setup… though how ridiculously stratified most of the AFC is this year seems to make it quite possible that we might even end up with six. Then again, there are always nasty rivalry and divisional upsets in the last few weeks, so…
(incidentally, that very stratification is what makes it so hard for me to judge the Indy and Cinci defenses - when either one can hold an average to above-average offense under three touchdowns, let me know, 'cause it hasn’t happened so far… and even offensive-oriented teams tend to need to do that once playoff time comes. Also, you won’t hear any argument from me that the Pats defense, particularly the defensive backfield, has been… below par, since we lost Rodney… okay, really shitty, with the exception of the ongoing Ellis Hobbs Emergence)
Oh, and I agree with you about the NFC flaws. EVERY team is seriously flawed, and that’s what makes it sort of fun. Honestly, I am rooting for Dallas, as I’d love to see Bledsoe and Parcells take one more run at it, however much I’ve historically hated the Cowboys. I’d also love to see Orton mature into at least a 2000-Trent-Dilfer level QB and lead the Bears on a run, if only because that defense can be honestly fun to watch. Carolina is always entertaining with Steve Smith, as well. Assume I’m rooting against any of the other NFC contenders, if it comes up 
All of this leaves one question: Will Jake Plummer’s deal with the devil last through the entire season?
I gather you’re a fan, or at least higher on them than I am, but I think my statement holds as I phrased it (carefully, I might add). I certainly can conceed that you can “expect that they could win”. However, that pretty much translates to “they could win” which is always true, and especially so in todays NFL.
I said “expect them to win”, which to me indicates that they’d be considered an odds on favorite. That’s simply unlikely, best case scenario IMHO is that they’d be a 3 or 4 point fave at home…which is basically saying the game is an even match up. A more likely scenario as I expect it to play out is that they’ll be close to a pick em or home dog versus any of the mentioned contenders as currently constituted.
Kiros, stratified, great word.
Regarding San Diego, take a look at their schedule top to bottom, it’s obscenely difficult. Probably the hardest in the league, every bit as hard as the Pats, and I’d say moreso when you factor in divisional matchups. It’s too bad. I agree with you that they are probably the odd man out, but I enjoy the Chargers so much.
I think you’re giving the Steelers a bit too much credit (perhaps because they beat the Pats), they have 3 very tough matchups coming up in which I predict they lose two. All three if Big Ben is out longer than hoped or is in any way rusty or limited. After that, road games to both Minny and Cleveland are by no means gimmes. Me giving them a 11-5 record was adjusted up from 10-6 which is very possible with that team. Their running game’s yards per carry leaves alot to be desired for a team that wants to dictate the pace of the game. The D line has a tendancy to get pushed around against decent offenses. I bet Rueben Droughns will have a big game against them. They are definately one of the better teams, but Cincy is on the upswing while Pitt is declining, and Cincy has a much more bearable remaining schedule.
I think you’d agree that no matter what the Pats do for the rest of the season, it’d be utterly shocking for them to be anything other than the lowest seeded divisional champ.
I can’t agree with you on that Dallas fandom though. I hate the Cowboys, hate Parcells, and love Bledsoe…the math doesn’t add up.
One nugget that people might forget, and one I expected you to point out in your questioning of Cincy, is that the Bears held Cincy to 24 points…but those 24 points came off 5 Orton INTs which created some short fields. They actually had fewer total yards of offense than the Bears did…digest that morsel of info.
Omni, I’m really looking forward to your diagnosis of this coming weekend. Especially the local game.
Real quick before I run to catch my flight home for Thanksgiving!
The Pats actually beat the Steelers this year, on a BradyDrive I am actually thinking more of how Pitt went into Cincy and handled them thoroughly, and how the Roethlisberger Steelers still haven’t lost to a non-Patriots team (though the JAX loss may count since he started it, but that was completely the result of Maddox giving it away at the end).
I wouldn’t go so far as “utterly shocking”, but yeah, 4 seed is definitely where I expect to end up, and the likely best-case of 3 seed is no different anyways. Also, agreed on all points about the Chargers, and the shame that we probably won’t be able to see LT in the playoffs this year.
Not necessarily a Dallas fan… I just think the storyline would be pretty fun, and I don’t have a particular attachment to any of the other NFC teams. Good point on the Bears-Cincy game, too - Cincy actually has something obscene like 15 interceptions in three games against the NFC North combo of Favre-Culpepper-Orton, and that always helps your numbers across the board.
On that note, Happy Thanksgiving to everyone who gets involved in these football threads, and may we all have a couple of glorious games to watch while we’re relaxing!
I’ll be trying to punch a thread out tomorrow before the Turkey Day games. I promise it’ll at least have those games, and will probably go through them all. Stay tuned.
No, I’m not giving any hints towards that Bucs Bears tilt…yet.
That one’s easy enough… whichever team can run on the other will probably win.
IIRC, you made mention of whether Lovie Smith could survive (did he have the toughness) as the Bears coach? I think that was predicated on the Bears sucking this year. He seems to have whipped the defense into a monster. I’m guessing Bears fans are very happy with him right now… even happier if he gets to 8-3 ahead of his old organization.
Fucking Thursday games kill the rhythm of the NFL week. The Rangers Rewind starts in 15 minutes, so I don’t have time to recap my week just yet, but I did want to offer my Turkey Day picks and non-action for the record. Using the Post Line:
12:30pm…**Falcons…3…LIONS…41½…**Lions and the over.
.4:00pm…**COWBOYS…PK…Broncos…41½…**Broncos and the under.
Spread Picker Picks
4 Cowboys
This is obviously only a partial list, though I’d point out that the spread picker has no opinion about the Falcons @ Lions game.
The funny thing is, I can’t remember if I used to bet on Thanksgiving games. I remember betting on preseason, (we were insane), and every timeslot involved action, (which is why I always pick SNF and MNF games, even if I don’t like them), and even all the Saturday games. But I can’t remember for the life of me if we did Turkey Day action.
The whole idea was that you should always watch all televised NFL, and having action on all the timeslots ensured that you were interested in even crappy night games, but Thanksgiving has always been a different animal. I typically don’t see much of the early game, and that is antithetical to betting, where the point is to spice up games you were already watching.
On that basis, I will skip the early game and only put action on the late game, which I will most assuredly be watching.
Thansgiving Games
Risk 30 for 60 on the Broncos & the Under
Damn I want the Broncos to win this game in the worst way. The over/under has me on the fence, though. On the one hand, I could see a ton of running by the Broncos and likewise from the Cowboys, but the last time we saw a game like that, Eli led a 4th quarter comeback that would have covered the over. But just barely, so I’m sticking to my philosophy of running games = under. I should just do a straight bet on the Broncos, but I would never have been able to call in a single 5x straight bet…that would be too humiliating.
The other problem with Thursday (and soon to be Saturday, which the Giants are always a part of) games is that it adds a layer of betting that makes keeping under the 200 loss limit for the week problematic. Oh well, here’s hoping they cover.
Shit, Rangers rewind already started. Later!
One more quick thing: Damn if I didn’t see those NFC West games coming up the block, eh?
It wasn’t so much if he had the toughness to handle them sucking, it was if he had the toughness to get them to play hard and to cope with the occasionally brutal media pressure around here.
The toughness of that defense is almost entirely attributed to Ron Rivera’s leadership. He’s building off Lovie’s Tampa 2 scheme, and there’s little doubt that Lovie’s skills get tapped frequently, but the intensity and attitude comes from Ron. Ron was a big part of that 85 Bears D, and he channels the spirit of Buddy Ryan, and Ditka to a degree. Right now they are a machine, and I don’t expect that to change any time soon.
There’s still some questions about Lovie’s demeanor from the old school guys. They are used to the in your face style of Ditka, and the stoic Jauron era was really awful. Some people are praying that the quiet, unflappability Lovie shows doesn’t come back to haunt us when things get rougher. Right now not too many people are complaining though…however, people are pretty much totally fed up with this “patience” with the offense. If the running game stalls and/or the QB situation stops showing improvement, Lovie had better do some yelling or people are going to lose faith in a hurry.
There’s a phrase out there…what is it…um…somthing about the sun and a cat’s tail…no, wait…dog’s ass, thats right dog’s ass. 
Early Games
.3 **Panthers…2½.**13 **BEARS…**16 **34…**Bears and the over.
31 **Jaguars…4…**28 **TITANS…**59 **38½…**Jags and the under.
24 **PATRIOTS…9…**17 **Saints…**41 **46…**Pats and the under.
28 **RAMS…9½.**38 **Cards…**66 **49…**Cards and the over, both easily.
27 **FALCONS…6…**30 **Bucs…**57 **39…**Bucs unseat the Falcons, over.
13 **REDSKINS…6…**16 **Raiders…**29 **43…**Raiders and the over.
20 **COWBOYS…8…**7 **Lions…**27 **38½…**Lions and the over.
27 **GIANTS…7½.**17 **Eagles…**44 **40½…**Eagles and the over.
22 **BROWNS…2…**0 **Dolphins.**22 **34½…**Dolphins and the under.
13 **Steelers…3½.**16 **RAVENS…**29 **34…**Steelers and the under.
Late Games
27 **Seahawks…12½.**25 **49ERS…**52 **43…**49ers and the over.
48 **CHARGERS…10½.**10 **Bills…**58 **42½…**Billies and the over.
27 **BRONCOS…13½…**0 **Jets…**27 **40½…**Jets and the over.
45 **Colts…5…**37 **BENGALS…**82 **46½…**Colts and the under.
Night Games
45 **Chiefs…7…**17 **TEXANS…**62 **44…**Chiefs and the under.
17 **PACKERS…5…**20 **Vikings…**37 **44½…**Packers and the over.
Spread Picker Picks (9-5)
8 Eagles Loss
7 Jets Loss
6 Ravens WIN
6 Titans WIN
5 49ers WIN
2 Bengals Loss
2 Bucs WIN
2 Dolphins Loss
2 Saints WIN
2 Vikings WIN
1 Bears WIN
1 Bills Loss
1 Cards WIN
1 Cowboys WIN
Early Games
Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Eagles getting 15½, Lions getting 16, Cards getting 17½
Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Bucs getting 14, Raiders getting 14, Patriots giving 1
Love those teases. Up 100 so far.
Late Games
Risk 55 for 50 on a 3-team tease: Jets getting 21½, 49ers getting 20½, Bills getting 18½
If not down 110, risk 30 for 125 on the Jets, 49ers & Bills
Still up 15, but for how long?
Sunday Night
Risk 30 for 60 on the Chiefs & the Under
Down 15, with one bet remaining…
Monday Night
Risk 30 for 60 on the Packers & the Over
Doh! Down 45 for the week after going up 100 in the early game. That’s annoying in the extreme.
[post=6798716]Standing[/post]
This week: 14-18, -45
Season: 105-115-2, -765 (-76.5 per week)
Spread Picker: 49-39-2; Best Bets: 8-3
Against the Spread
7-2-1 Broncos
7-3 Colts
7-3 Giants
6-3-1 Bears
6-3-1 Chargers
6-3-1 Seahawks
6-4 Jags
6-4 Panthers
6-4 Raiders
6-4 Steelers
5-4-1 Cowboys
5-5 Bengals
5-5 Bills
5-5 Browns
5-5 Bucs
5-5 Chiefs
5-5 Falcons
5-5 49ers
5-5 Lions
5-5 Packers
5-5 Redskins
5-5 Vikings
4-5-1 Saints
4-6 Texans
4-6 Titans
4-6 Patriots
4-6 Ravens
3-7 Cards
3-7 Dolphins
3-7 Jets
3-7 Rams
2-8 Eagles