I play in an online football simulation league (the game is Stratomatic, and our league has two openings if anyone’s interested). My quarterback right now is Houston’s Matt Schaub. I have a trade offer on the table in which, among other things, I’d get rid of Schaub and end up with either Miami’s Chad Henne or Detroit’s Matthew Stafford as my starting QB.
Without going into all the particulars, and without needing to know anything about Stratomatic itself, I’m hoping some other Dopers can chime in with their thoughts on who will be the best quarterback out of those three for the next 5-7 years. What order would you rank them over that time period? Is it even close? Did Schaub reach his peak last season, or will he be a probowler into his mid-30s? Do Henne or Stafford have the makings of a star quarterback? Is Detroit so bad I should run away from Stafford altogether? Will Brandon Marshall make Henne a top flight QB?
Any thoughts on how good these three players will be would be very helpful.
This can be spun in multiple directions. I’d say the ceiling is the highest with Stafford. Schaub is there, but now, it’s up to him to see if he can repeat it and keep it up. I’d say he’s the safest bet, unless you think he’s just doing his best Derek Anderson impersonation. Henne is enticing because of Marshall, like you pointed out. Stafford has the highest bust possibility, but I hope it doesn’t happen, because I’m a Lions fan.
Man, Stafford has to show me something this year, or else I’m totally cool with shipping him out for nothing.
Stafford has good potential, but I wouldn’t take him in a fantasy league because he doesn’t have much of a supporting cast. The Lions may be able to battle the Bears for 3rd place in the NFC North, but that’s about as high as they’re going this year.
I think Schaub is just now hitting his prime. He should still have some great years ahead, provided he can stay healthy (that goes double for Andre Johnson).
Stafford has the highest ceiling, but he probably won’t hit it until 2011 at the earliest.
Henne is definitely behind. I think he’ll be a decent starter from year to year, but probably won’t ever be someone worth keeping in a keeper league.
I think actual NFL people would laugh at this question, but it’s up to you how that translates. Stafford’s the guy to have. 5-7 years? Stafford might be the #1 guy in the entire league given those parameters.
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Schaub, barring injury (which is actually a real concern with him), should be a productive starter and/or a borderline Pro-Bowler for the next 4 or 5 years. Stafford is a really big question mark – a lot of people seem to have already decided that he’s proven to be an ok (or better) pick at #1 overall, but his numbers last year were mediocre by even the standards of rookie QBs. On the other hand, if he does becomes even an average NFL starter, it might be hard for him not to have more total career value from this point on … depending on how many players are in your league. E.g., if it’s a six team league, than an average QB is pretty worthless as anything but a good 3rd-stringer.
Henne is just as much of a question mark, but he’s also in a system that will severely limit his fantasy-type production even if he does turn out to be a useful player in real life.
This, pretty much. Schaub plays for a good team and has great wideouts, Stafford has great wideouts (well, at least one) too but plays on a crappy team (although from a fantasy perspective that isn’t always a bad thing, seeing as how bad teams throw a lot playing from behind all the time) and Henne is, well…see above. Limited by scheme.
Thanks for your input, everyone. Like I kind of wrote in my question, I could argue for or against any of those three, but logic tells me to stick with Schaub, the one one who’s proven. I was leaning that way, but this helped me make my final decision.