It’s always claimed that TO differential is the key stat. IMO, the more important stat is: point differential on takeaways v. giveaways. IOW-the difference between the points you score after a takeaway v. what you surrender after a giveaway. IS there any place this stat is listed, or the relevants stats are listed, so you can determine the answer?
For stats like that, Football Outsiders is probably your best bet. Here are their drive stats from last season - I think you could combine the offensive and defensive points/drive and turnovers/drive numbers into something kind of like what you’re looking for, but it gives you averages rather than focusing exclusively on turnover-based drives. Still, it’s a place to start.
For more specific stats, you might have to compile them yourself from full play-by-play records.
It seems to me this is missing something very important. If you hav efirst and goal at the 5, and I intercept your pass in the end zone that’s just about as good as intercepting your pass at your twenty and running it in for a score. I’ve saved a TD rather than getting one. At the very least making the interception I mention must be worth at least as much as the field goal you certainly would have kicked.
Yeah, I’m not wild about this suggestion. Points-off-turnovers is almost entirely about two things: where on the field the turnover happens to occur (which is just a matter of circumstance/luck), and how good your offense is (which has nothing to do with your defense’s ability to force turnovers). It’s better just to measure offense separately using all the various tools we have at our disposal.
And, as has been mentioned, a turnover that occurs on my own 10-yard line is just as valuable as one that occurs on my opponent’s 10, but focusing on points-after-turnovers obscures this fact.
Points-after-turnovers can be an interesting descriptive stat – in a “this is the story of the game” kinda way – but it makes no sense as something for teams to focus on. That is, it makes sense for teams to key on ideas like “let’s not turn the ball over” and “we have to cause more fumbles,” but it would be crazy-talk if a coach said “the key to this game will be pouncing on fumbles in our opponent’s territory and subsequently having a better-than-usual offense.”
I suspect that when you look at stats from a big picture perspective, TO differential strongly correlates to winning games. Obviously, the single most important stat is points scored versus points given up, since that’s how the game is actually measured. But past that, you can look at other rule of thumb stats (time of possession, total yards of offense, QB rating, etc.) and see which one actually corresponds to winning the game the most. I’d bet that TO comes the closest.
You’re right that getting points off a turnover is huge, but it doesn’t measure the points denied. Even if you never score more than a FG off a turnover, just keeping the ball out of the offense’s hands will be enough.