I assume Drain Bead’s guess of Tom Brady was a joke, but either way he has a very solid QB name.
It is indeed Pennington. And yes, the name “Colt” is a big, honking red flag for a Quarterback.
I don’t think the Bears think he’s a #1 WR. He’s not getting elite-wideout money- his contract is pretty similar to the one Brian Westbrook got back when Duce Staley was the Eagles’ starter and Westbrook was more of a Reggie Bush - third-down back, lining up in the slot, and returning punts.
The Bears presumably do think he’s their best wideout, and 50-plus catches isn’t bad for a guy in his first year at the position.
Were there any good wide receivers available in free agency?
Giants fans can’t say anything - we have a backup OL with the worst name imaginable for such a tough position - Guy Whimper!
Not really, not after Hoosh-man-zotta signed with Seattle, anyway.
Hester is the third highest paid player on the Bears team and is supposed to make almost 6.9 million this year. From here. Which, according to this site, would put him up there with 2008 Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Roy Williams. Now, I understand that there are all kinds of intricacies to salary cap numbers (new deal for Hester vs. older deals, pro-rated bonuses, etc., 2008 v. 2009), but it certainly appears that Hester is getting paid pretty well for a wide receiver.
51 receptions for a #1 isn’t, to my mind, very good at all, especially considering he didn’t have a single 100 yard game all season and had 3 or less receptions in half of the games he started. Sure he’s still learning the position, but that’s just another reason why he isn’t (and to my mind will never be) a #1 WR.
Housh, Holt, Coles, Bryant, TO, Harrison could all have been had. Plus a group of middling WRs (like Hester) like Lance Moore, Nate Washington, Malcolm Floyd, D. Henderson, etc.).
In addition, you can still get Dante Hall. You remember him, an outstanding KR/PR who was a passable slot receiver, but was only great for a couple years and now hasn’t even signed with anyone? Now, let me get my crystal ball …
Hester’s cap number this year is hugely inflated because he’s in the first year of a new deal, and they didn’t prorate that much of his signing bonus.
Note that he’s not just learning how to play the position in the NFL- he’s learning how to play the position period. At Miami he played no more than 50 offensive snaps in his whole career, and half of those were at tailback (and fullback, if you can believe it).
51 catches for a guy who effectively has less experience than a rookie wideout is quite stunningly good, when you think about it. Even better when you consider that Kyle Orton is a noodle arm and couldn’t throw it deep.
Antonio Bryant was franchised by the Bucs and wasn’t going anywhere. He was our only credible receiving threat last year. The Bears probably should have gone after Coles, T.O., or Holt, but Harrison is done and Housh was way too expensive.
And he got $15 million guaranteed. And they did it when he still had 2 years left on his contract. All in all, I think he’s getting pretty damn good money for a wideout without a single 100 yard game on his record.
He might (and I remain unconvinced that he ever will) develop into a good #1 receiver. But the thing is he’s already got the job (and the paycheck).
This will be an interesting year for him, for sure. Now he’s had the job for a year, now he has Jay Cutler, and very soon he’s going to run out of excuses. I think he’ll be a fine “run fast that way, try and get past your man, and catch the ball if Jay throws it to you” WR. Which is an excellent thing to be … if you’re a slot receiver.
True. Now the Bears need a “credible receiving threat”. Outside of dump offs to the RB and TE.
As a Packer fan, I’m more than happy they didn’t. Especially with the addition of Jay Cutler. It will certainly be an interesting year for Cutler/Hester.
Eli Manning just became the best-paid player in the league. $97 million over 6 years, with $30-something million guaranteed.
Now, Manning’s pretty good- I think he’s among the top 10 quarterbacks in the league- but he’s not that good. In four full seasons and one half-season, he’s never thrown 25 touchdown passes in a season or broken the 4,000 yard mark. He’s never averaged 7 yards per pass, and last season was the first in which he completed 60% of his passes (barely).
Big brother Peyton, who is now the second-best-paid quarterback in the league, and third-best-paid player overall*, has done all of those things in all eleven seasons in the league, except as a rookie (and he did throw more than 25 TD passes that year), and 2005, when he “only” had 3,747 passing yards.
Now, for the purposes of this discussion we’ll assume that Eli’s numbers improve again this year- though without Burress, I doubt that- but he is still unequivocally not worth that sort of money. A Tony Romo/Aaron Rodgers-type deal at ~$10 million per I could see, but not better-than-Peyton-and-Brady money. That’s crazy.
It’s even crazier when you consider that it’s only a six year deal, although he’ll be 34 when it expires so he’s probably not getting another ubercontract anyway.
I’m a bit peeved that our GM hasn’t come out and said that the Packers have no interest in Michael Vick. I do not want him on our team.
I do find it curious that the Bears were happy to give Hester $40 million but balked at paying Bernard Berrian the $42 million he got from the Vikings.
It’s worth noting, though, that that $40 million contract is really a $30 million contract because the last two years are for the league minimum, with $10 mil in escalator clauses based on (receiving) performance.
I can’t fault them for extending him early in any case; he was a second-round pick, which was an awfully high spot for a cornerback who can’t defend. His rookie contract was accordingly tiny, relative to his value to the Bears (even as a returner).
Pop quiz: Aaron Rodgers gets hurt in the third preseason game and will miss at least 8 weeks of the regular season. Which backup would you rather have stepping in- all-but-a-rookie Brian Brohm, or the most electrifying player in the history of the league, who has the potential to play at a Pro Bowl level?
Here’s an oddity. Berrian caught even less passes than Hester last year, yet had 300 more receiving yards. Go figure.
Is there a none of the above? I’d go with the natural leader/stronger armed this year/always underestimated Matt Flynn. Vick, as “electrifying” as he was (emphasis on was), I do not believe he has any potential whatsoever to go to another Pro Bowl. Plus, the offense the Packers run doesn’t fit Vicks strengths, in fact, it plays to his weaknesses. I would take Flynn, and maybe even Brohm if he shows development this year, over Vick. Hell, I’d sooner have Favre back from retirement than Vick. Now THAT would be an interesting story.
Gotta totally disagree with you on Todd Marinovich. That’s a great QB name. It’s Dan Marino with more grit and character, like a cross between Marino and Jaworski.
Hester’s Cap Number is misleading. This season is the 1st year his extension kicked in. He signed a $30M 4-year extension, which in addition to his remaining 2 years when he signed it amounts to essentially a 6-year $31M contract. That contract also includes a $10M roster bonus in the final year in 2012 which will de-escalate if he falls short of “performance below the level of a No. 1 receiver.”
So, technically the contract is a $20M 6-year deal with a possible $10M bonus in 2012 if he becomes a #1 receiver. It’s anyone’s guess what the Bears brass defined as a “No. 1” and using a similar clause in Tommie Harris’s contract required 3 consecutive Pro Bowls (which turned out to have worked in the Bears favor). I’m guessing Hester’s is different since being a #1 doesn’t really imply Pro Bowls, just being the primary target, and with Cutler’s relationship with Olsen and Bennett it might be unlikely that he gets all that $10M.
Long story short, Hester’s deal is a pretty good one for the Bears. He might not be a classic #1 WR in the mould of Moss, Owens and Colston but he’s certainly a unique Split End. With him getting essentially $3.5M per year with the potential to be worth $5M per year if he turns into a elite WR he’s paid perfectly appropriately. Lance Moore will probably get this type of money when he’s unrestricted.
Complaining about Hester being a “Number 1” is pretty silly and shortsighted. He’s unconventional, but the Bears don’t have a conventional offense. Their passing game is predicated on the 2-TE set and Olsen is expected to be one of their primary targets much like Gates in SD and Gonzo was in KC. To compliment that you don’t need another tall, rangy, physical Owens type, you need a burner to stretch the field. Moss would be the ideal fit due to his elite ball skills and leaping ability but Hester is about $7M per year cheaper even if he gets his full bonus. They aren’t asking Hester to be a “No. 1” they are asking him to be a deep threat, and frankly by not drawing up the offense to shoe horn him into a No. 1 role they’ll probably save themselves $10M.
That said, I’m not in love with how they’ve used him so far. He struggles to get off a bump and run and would be much more effective in the slot or in motion. With the growth of Bennett and the emergence of Olsen as an elite target this appears to be happening. All reports from camp are that Turner has Hester in motion on almost every set. If he keeps that up and it doesn’t diminish Hester’s understanding of the offense (and Knox can fill the same role to keep them both fresh) we could be seeing something really potent.
Ummm, I thought is was a 4 year, $30 million deal, with $15 million guaranteed, and an **additional **$10 million roster bonus. So it would actually be $40 million/6 year deal (if he’s a #1) not a $20 million/6 year deal. For this year, he’s counting $6.8 million dollars against the cap and is the third highest paid player on the team.
It’s a potential roster bonus that is 6 years away. It’s safe to say it won’t come into play, they’ll either restructure him if he succeeds, or not worry about it if he doesn’t.
They’re paying a returner/slot receiver (or call him target #3 if you like) $15 million guaranteed, and a salary of $6.8 million this year. If he develops, it may very well be a good deal. Guess what I think about the likelihood of him developing.
So, he’s not the primary target, he’s behind Olson, probably Forte, too, as targets. And yet he’s paid well more than either of them, and more than almost any other #3 target in the NFL.
We shall see. I saw nothing last year about Hester’s play that indicated he’ll enjoy success as a wide receiver. I’m sure all the Bears fans who think he’ll suddenly shine because they have strong armed Jay Cutler to throw to him deep, but I remain skeptical. He’s Dante Hall, not Steve Smith.
By the way, I like Earl Bennett. If he actually learns the playbook, gets adjusted to the speed of the game, and actually catches a pass in a game (unlike last year), he could be a great receiver.
First off, now Eagles fans should be able to relate to my feelings on McNabb when he was the highest paid player in the league.
Eli has earned the right to make a better deal than Tono Romo or Aaron Rogers. It’s inappropiate to lump those three on the same level. Hell, it’s unfair to lump Tony Romo in with Aaron Rogers, as Romo has clearly demonstrated that he’s on a higher level. The stunning 2007 post-season and Superbowl MVP elevates Eli above Romo.
If all quarterbacks were resigning this year, Eli would still get the same contract but a bunch of other QBs would earn more. Peyton, Brady, Big Ben and Drew Brees are all no-brainers to get bigger contracts if they were resigning this year. There are probably two or three more who should as well.
With the crazy increase in salary cap over the past few years, everyone who signs a new contract is going to blow his peers out of the water just by virtue of signing when the salary cap is so much bigger. Not long ago the cap was $80 million, but then it started growing by 8 figures per year to now when it’s probably around $120 million. You can’t look at Eli’s contract under a $120 million cap and compare to Peyton’s contract under an $80 million cap and claim that Eli’s contract is out of whack. It’s Peyton, Brady, Brees, Ben, and everyone else who didn’t sign contracts this year who are out of whack on the low side.
Case in point: Eli just became the highest paid player in the year, beating out Namdi Asomugha (sp?). He’s a nice corner and all, but does he deserve more money than Peyton Manning? Of course not. It’s a matter of how big the cap is when you sign.
We should compare the top QBs contracts based on % of cap their contract eats up in the year they signed. I bet Eli’s place would be right in line with what most people would consider fair market value. (This is in contrast to when McNabb was the highest paid player, when cap growth was much, much slower.)
Saw an interesting stat a while ago on Michael Vick when he first got out of jail. I’ve never liked Vick; I’m not a fan of running QBs on general principle. For me, if you aren’t a pocket passer you aren’t a worthwhile QB. That’s just my opinion.
Whenever I got into debates about that, Vick defenders would always argue that Vick wins games. Period. Can’t hate a guy who wins so much. Anyway, that Sportscenter stat I found so interesting? Eli Manning has a higher career win percentage than Michael Vick.
Eli Manning: 42-29-0 (59.2%)
Michael Vick: 38-28-1 (57.5%)
They showed the entire list of active QBs with a higher win percentage than Vick, and it wasn’t very long at all. From memory, I’d say there are maybe 4 or 5 QBs with a better win % than Eli. That probably factored into his new contract.
For what it’s worth, Football Outsiders has a positive opinion of Hester based on how he played up until the Bears’ bye last season.
And it’s easy to look at his stats and conclude he isn’t a #1-- because he isn’t, yet. I’m not yet sold that he ever could be, but he has certainly showed improvement from 07 to 08.
You might be right about the bonus. The articles I found are pretty vague on it and the reporting could probably be interpreted that way. One thing that’s clear is that he’s guaranteed $15M and that $10M is only applicable in 2013. If the deal is actually $30 for 6 yrs it’s still only $5M per year which is a hell of a lot less than Heyward-Bey is getting and Hester is more proven in essentially the same role (and Hester still has elite KR/PR value).
By no real definition is Hester the 3rd highest paid player on the team. You know damn well that Cap figures are meaningless in terms of actual compensation. Hell, Cedric Benson has a $2.575M Cap figure this year making him the 12th “highest paid” player and he’s not getting a penny from us.
Hester’s base is a whopping $833,000 and the rest is signing bonus. He’s earning less than almost half the defense when you average out their contacts. Urlacher, Briggs, Vasher, Tillman, Tommie Harris, Alex Brown and Ogunlaye are all well over $5M/year. Orlando Pace, Cutler and Kreutz are right at 5M/year.
He’ll probably be the #2 target if you want to see it in terms of that. Though is intentionally dismisses his value when he’s not getting the ball but opening up the rest of the field. Forte will not get a ton of catches this year with Cutler under Center, most of his work was Orton checking down last year. Forte will be off the field more in favor of a healthy Jones and Cutler won’t be bailing out to RBs on every 3rd pass attempt. Olsen very likely will be the top target, I expect Hester, Clark and Bennett to all fall somewhere close in reception totals but not all receptions are created equal.
For example, Randy Moss is a classic “No. 1” in based on your apparent definitions yet he was a distant second on his team with only 68 catches. In comparison, Hester’s 51 catches look pretty good for a 1st year guy. You seem to imply that a WR who isn’t being thrown to is valueless. There are a shitload of guys in the league with 51 catches and 600+ yards who aren’t half as valuable as Hester because their catches have almost no impact on the rest of the field. I don’t think a guy like Bobby Wade would do as much to help Olsen, Forte and Orton/Cutler.
You’ve got a vendetta against the guy so forgive me if I take that with a grain of salt. I agree Hester isn’t worth all of that $5M/year right now. However the fact that he impacted the offense and caught 51 balls with Orton and a very conservative offense speaks very well of his potential. Speed is irreplaceable. Hester was worth most of that $5M/year however and the odds of him living up to the rest of his deal are pretty good. And if he doesn’t, they can cut him. Big deal.
You’re right about one thing though, this year he will have no excuses. We will find out one way or another. Had things not changed I’d have been pessimistic but when the Bears signed him I have little doubt they figured noodle arm Orton would be gone at some point.
Hester was running great routes by the end of last season. I expect him to look good this year.
I don’t have a vendetta against the guy. I think he’s another great athlete that is paid well beyond his production and who will likely not amount to much of a wide receiver. Kinda like Matt Jones.
I don’t think it does. I fully admit I didn’t closely watch all the Bears games, but 51 catches ranks him below studs like Greg Camarillo, Josh Reed, John Carlson, and superstud Bobby Wade.
But we will see. That’s the joy of these kinds of threads.
Baloney. There are dozens of guys every year who can run fast who fail in the NFL. And dozens more who “open the field” for real players. Hester is a helluva return guy (or at least was for a couple years), but it takes more than speed to be a solid wide receiver. Me, I’d rather pay some go route running speedster $500,000 rather than 5 million, but that’s just me.
Except that 15 million guaranteed doesn’t come back. Nor do the games that he got less than 50 yards receiving, which was roughly half of them. Don’t get me wrong, I hope the Bears continue to ignore their obvious needs at WR and trust him with the position.
We will.
I’m very curious to see what the depth chart shakes out like. They have options at WR but they seem to take an interchangeable parts approach, and that’s just not smart. Hester and Knox have very similar profiles and should be learning the same position and competing directly with each other. Neither is big enough to play on the line of scrimmage and should really be playing the Z. If you want Hester to be the “No. 1” target then you adjust the playbook so that the Z is the primary, you don’t force Hester into the X role.
Currently Hester and Bennett are 1 and 2 on the depth chart for the X. This doesn’t make a lot of sense since one is a speed/downfield guy and one is a hands/possession guy. Knox is competing for the 3rd WR spot, probably the Z, which is fine and dandy but I’m not sure you want Hester and Knox on the field at the same time in your base 3-WR sets. In a 4-WR set with Hester and Knox both off the line you can do some things and challenge the safeties, but in a 3-WR set or a 2-TE set you are just giving up too much size at the outside.
They’ve basically got 1 guy on the team who is legitimately “big” in Rideau but at 6’3" and 195 lbs he’s too lanky. Hopefully he can develop as a classic X but with Hester and Bennett slotted there it forces him into a position that suits him worse. More than anything I think the Bears need to define roles and positions for their WRs and make them learn one position that suits them. Even if the 3 best athletes aren’t always on the field at the same time as a result, so be it. Create distinct competitions and let Cutler get used to a certain type of WR in the given positions.
I hope they figure this out, but reports from camp are inconsistent.
As far as the Eli contract, I’m not sure where I stand. On one hand, I can understand how Eli looks like a second or third tier QB on paper. His statistics (aside from last season), were generally not very good. He has shown a marked decrease in productivity over every single second half of a season since he became a full starter. His Super Bowl winning '07 was his worst statistical season.
On the other hand, what else do you want from the guy? He clearly turned a corner during the '07 postseason, and he has been pretty excellent since that point. Even factoring in his statistical decline after Burress went down in '08, Eli had his best season as a starter. He’s a clear leader of the team. He won a Super Bowl, and was Super Bowl MVP. I’d pay what Eli got for a player clearly improving, yet already clearly a leader able to produce wins. Ellis Dee’s point about his contract being so large because it’s the most recent is a fair one. And even being an Eagles fan, I think it’s a fair contract for what Eli is showing.
But I wonder at why Eli is clearly better than Romo and Rodgers. Is this a “wins over stats” argument? Eli’s stats are significantly worse than those of both Romo and Rodgers. Rodgers was incredible last season, especially considering how average the run game was in Green Bay. I think it’s fair to put Eli on the same tier as Romo and Rodgers at this point.