NFL Week One - Welcome Back

The Game Room
1

The NFL season starts Thursday with the Packers going to Chicago to play the Bears.

Here’s the lines:

Thursday
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3, 46)

Sunday

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-4, 47.5)
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, 45.5)
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3, 39.5)
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (+5, 37.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4, 52)
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-5.5, 45.5)
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers (+3, 50.5)
Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5, 44)
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 44)
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 49.5)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+2.5, 47.5)
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 45.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6, 51.5)
Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7, 53.5)
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-1, 43)

Just for some giggles, here are some of my predictions for this year in the NFL:

[ul]
[li]A QB will win the MVP. Pick the team with the best or second best regular season record, and give the MVP to their QB. Relative performance and having better players at other positions just won’t matter. [/li]
[li]Kliff Kingsbury will be out of the NFL within 2 years. I don’t know how you go from fired from a tier 3 college football program to NFL head coach. [/li]
[li]Miami Dolphins will eke out just one win to avoid joining the Lions as the only team to ever go 0-16. [/li]
[li]The Colts, fresh off the retirement of their franchise QB, will actually avoid a losing season and finish second in their conference.[/li]
[li]The Bears won’t make the playoffs. Those 36 turnovers last year will normalize and the offense will only get slightly better. They’ll be the next version of the 2016 Panthers and the 2011 Bears: teams that regressed after an amazing defensive season with a ton of turnovers the year before.[/li]
[li]A year after being under-hyped, the Browns will this year be over-hyped. They’ll finish 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7 and miss the playoffs. [/li]
[li]Remember when the debate was whether Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston will be the next true franchise QB? Both will be gone from the teams that drafted them by the start of next year. Maybe they’ll go to the beach with Eli Manning and Joe Flacco, who too will be off the teams they’re currently on, and talk about how nice it is of teams to give them so much money for such mediocre play. [/li]
[li] [/li][li]Speaking of, the Cowboys will make Dak Prescott the next huge money/average play QB in the NFL. [/li]
[li]Some team will trade for Jarrett Stidham, and Bellicheat will hide in the corner of his darkest closet and actually smile about it.[/li]
[li]The leading rusher in the NFL will not be named Saquon or Ezekiel. [/li]
[li]I will talk out of my ass about football.[/li][/ul]

One of those predictions is absolutely, positively going to come true. Guess which one.

2

That makes 5 Thursdays in a row for the Packers.

Brian

3

Conference or division? Because I like them to win the AFC South, though I think Jax will give them a run. Top two AFC should still be KC and NE, maybe the Chargers, no? Bill O’Brien still won’t get fired.

At least I can watch the Rockets and Astros…

Agree on the QBs being gone from their drafted teams.

4

Anyone remember the outrage a few years ago when the Ravens as defending Super Bowl champions were forced to open on the road for the Thursday night opener? ‘A violation of a tradition!!!’

I don’t remember the Packers or the Bears being in the Super Bowl last year.

5

I’m sure this one is true but this is less of a prediction and more of a given. This is how the NFL works. The only way I see this not happening is if Dak gets badly hurt (like Andrew Luck) or gets into off-the-field trouble bad enough to force him out of the league, if only temporarily (like Michael Vick). If neither of those incidents occurs this is pretty much inevitable.

Dak is just good enough that the Cowboys are unlikely to get a QB who is better and can be an immediate starter, and since the QB is essential to a team’s success they will need to make him happy.

6

I think they chose the Packers/Bears as the opener because of the NFL centennial and it being the oldest rivalry.

Brian

7

Oh, I’m sure they did, and it’s not like the defending Super Bowl champions opening the season on a Thursday was a long standing tradition. It’s not like how the Cincinnati Reds used to open the baseball season. Most of it was just ESPN endless talk shows blabbing on about it and I happened to be at the gym every single time they beat the topic into the ground. I think the Orioles had a home game that interfered and thus the Ravens couldn’t have a home game without causing a traffic nightmare.

8

The long term signing, sure. But my prediction had more to do with Dak not ever being worth elite money. He’s a perfectly serviceable NFL QB, who won’t win games for you, but won’t necessarily lose them for you either. Give him a tremendous O Line, a stud RB, a couple good pass catchers, and a solid defense, and you’ll have the chance to make the playoffs and lose in the first or second round with him. Yippee!!!

And I don’t buy into the “you must pay an average QB a ton of money” idea. Just cause some teams do it, doesn’t make it a good idea.

9

So they replaced Tony Romo with Tony Romo Jr.

The NFL is all about keeping up with the (Jerry) Joneses. Players measure their worth against what other players at their position are making. Not paying them as much or more as their peers is saying they’re not as valuable. And while that might be objectively true, if you sour that relationship between your starting QB and the front office, you can have problems. It then becomes a question of whether those problems are worth it or not. For most teams they’d rather pay the guy and not deal with it.

I think I’d like to see a team that says to their QB that there are 52 other guys we’re paying too and you don’t outweigh them. We’re not going to pay you top dollar for mediocre talent and then let go, say, our best linebacker because we can’t afford him anymore. But I’m probably dreaming.

10

My God, this city is so ramped up over the NFL’s opening game of the season tomorrow between the Packers and the Bears. We gotta’ win this one, especially after blowing a huge half-time lead last year in game one against our hated rivals.

11

The Chargers should be pretty good, but there are a bunch of reasons to think that they’ll come down some from last year. Derwin is hurt, Melvin Gordon probably won’t play for a while, etc. And even though they won 12 last year, they played more like a 10-win team - they caught a few breaks in close games that probably won’t happen again. Most likely they’re fighting for a wild-card spot, unless something goes wrong for KC.

12

It’s clearly the last one :D:D

The Lions aren’t the only team to go 0-16…the Browns did it two years ago as well

13

It was glorious watching Mayfield get Cleveland’s first win since the 0-16 season.

14

You’re right. His name is Joe.

15

He’s good, but I think it’ll be Gurley. Fournette as a dark horse.

If you want some humor, ESPN simulated the entire NFL slate of games for 2019-20, and wrote an article describing in detail the results of one of their model runs.: We simulated the entire 2019 NFL season - Scores and storylines for all 267 games - ESPN

The Texans are in the AFC Championship game. As I said, comedy.

16

Reply-quotes on lists are a pain in the ass! Inline below.

[ul]
[li]A QB will win the MVP. Pick the team with the best or second best regular season record, and give the MVP to their QB. Relative performance and having better players at other positions just won’t matter. [/li]Omni: Safe bet most years unless Aaron Donald/Khalil Mack go god-mode or something. My money is on Tom Brady, just for old times sake.

[li]Kliff Kingsbury will be out of the NFL within 2 years. I don’t know how you go from fired from a tier 3 college football program to NFL head coach. [/li]Omni: I’d call it Chip Kelly 2.0…but that insults Kelly. I’m very down on Murray, so I too expect this to go bad in epic fashion.

[li]Miami Dolphins will eke out just one win to avoid joining the Lions as the only team to ever go 0-16. [/li]Omni: Nah, their division is trash and they play the Bengals, Redskins, Giants and Colts. They find a way to win 3 games with Fitzmagic.

[li]The Colts, fresh off the retirement of their franchise QB, will actually avoid a losing season and finish second in their conference.[/li]Omni: The Colts in the AFC title game with Brissett? Whatever you’re smokin’, pass it around.

[li]The Bears won’t make the playoffs. Those 36 turnovers last year will normalize and the offense will only get slightly better. They’ll be the next version of the 2016 Panthers and the 2011 Bears: teams that regressed after an amazing defensive season with a ton of turnovers the year before.[/li]Omni: The regression story is an obvious one and the Bears got a murders row of a schedule. We’ll see, obviously I hope not. The roster is great, just comes down to luck, health and Mitch.

[li]A year after being under-hyped, the Browns will this year be over-hyped. They’ll finish 7-9, 8-8, or 9-7 and miss the playoffs. [/li]Omni: I’m on board with this too. The Browns have playmakers now, but they underlying stuff still scares me. Don’t like the coaching staff and don’t like the GM’s approach to roster building. Plus I’m not 100% sold on Baker making the leap. They aren’t the same old Browns, but let’s not suck each others dicks just yet.

[li]Remember when the debate was whether Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston will be the next true franchise QB? Both will be gone from the teams that drafted them by the start of next year. Maybe they’ll go to the beach with Eli Manning and Joe Flacco, who too will be off the teams they’re currently on, and talk about how nice it is of teams to give them so much money for such mediocre play. [/li]Omni: Yup, but it would be hilarious if both guys played just well enough this year to earn an extension further crippling those franchises. And yes, I realize I could be jinxing my own team by tempting the football gods this way.

[li]Speaking of, the Cowboys will make Dak Prescott the next huge money/average play QB in the NFL. [/li]Omni: I actually think they’ll pass on him. The Zeke deal is the biggie, Dak will get his walking papers. I also think he may crater this year making it a much easier sell.

[li]Some team will trade for Jarrett Stidham, and Bellicheat will hide in the corner of his darkest closet and actually smile about it.[/li]Omni: No one will trade for him until he gets a couple starts under his belt.

[li]The leading rusher in the NFL will not be named Saquon or Ezekiel. [/li]Omni: David…Montgomery.

[li]I will talk out of my ass about football.[/li]Omni: Don’t we all…don’t we all.
[/ul]

17

People are saying that the Bears could go undefeated this season.

18

That would be awful hard to do. On the flip side of the coin, some idiot at ESPN picked them to go 7 - 9. Really?! Based on what?! :dubious:

19

I wouldn’t mind seeing this but he’s going to split touches with the rest of Run DMC (Davis, Montgomery, Cohen), plus all the gadget plays to Patterson, Miller, Gabriel, etc., etc. That would be quite an accomplishment.

20

And here are the Football Outsiders projections for the NFC North, after running their simulation 50,000 times:

Team    PROJ DVOA     Mean Wins
DET        2.0%          8.3
GB         2.8%          8.2
MIN        1.0%          8.0
CHI        2.4%          8.0

They have these four teams ranked as #13, #14, #15, and #17 in the league.