NFL Week 10

[Taber]

[QUOTE=EsotericEnigma]
This is a lot like that cat in that box, isn’t it? Wait, I know the answer to this, hold on.

Actually in this case, tI would take the tails as the 21st flip for the reasons I said before, mathematically correct or not. A .0000005% chance to flip 21 heads in a row, very unlikely. Just like I would probably pick heads from about the 8th flip of the 100 on. I can’t imagine a normal person seeing someone (not cheating, mind) flip 20 heads in a row, wouldn’t pick tails. Maybe I’m completely insane, I wouldn’t pick tails.
[/QUOTE]

but the thing is, there is also a .0000005% chance of 20 heads in a row, then a tails. and a .0000005% chance of 19 heads in a row and then two tails in a row. and a .0000005% chance of HHTHTTHTTTHHHTTHTHHTTHTHH… and a .0000005% chance of THTTHHTTHTHHTHHTTTHHTHTHT… and so on. But we already know that we won’t get 19 heads in a row then two tails, or a HTTHHTHTTHHH… iteration, because we already got 20 heads in a row, so there are only 2 options left - 20HT or 21H, each originally with only a .0000005% chance, but now with a 50% chance, because they are the only options left.

[EllisDee]

[QUOTE=SenorBeef]
We may be in fundamental disagreement, or I may not fully understand you.
[/quote]
The latter. Let me highlight what I’m saying in your quote:

You seem to be saying that the handicappers think Ari will win, and the det +1 line will get all of the idiots to bet that. But like I said - it’s generally bad for the book if the action all goes one way, so they wouldn’t want to set a line that would encourage one-way betting, even if was in the personal view of the handicapper the wrong bet. Handicappers don’t attempt to predict the games - they attempt to predict the public’s reaction to the line. Often those things correlate - if some team’s star player is injured, it both makes them less likely to win, and also makes the public less likely to bet on them, so the line adjusts. But the line adjusts because of the public perception, not the actual changing odds of the team winning the game in the bookie’s view.

To put it another way, even if the handicappers personally thought Detroit would completely stomp Arizona, but there was a legion of millions of Arizonans who reliably bet on their team no matter what, then the line would shift and give Detroit even more points, even though the handicappers thought Detroit would win. Because they’re attempting to find the point where all action goes halfway, and the hordes of Ari homer bettors would drive the line in Detroit’s favor to encourage action on that side.

The two bolded parts are the reasoning behind what I’m saying. Given those bolded statements, that’s why you should bet on Arizona.

Btw, boo on your reversed example. Your hypothetical Arizona is in the real-life Detroit’s position, and vice versa. That unnecessarily confuses things.

[EllisDee]

[QUOTE=Taber]
but the thing is, there is also a .0000005% chance of 20 heads in a row, then a tails. and a .0000005% chance of 19 heads in a row and then two tails in a row. and a .0000005% chance of HHTHTTHTTTHHHTTHTHHTTHTHH… and a .0000005% chance of THTTHHTTHTHHTHHTTTHHTHTHT… and so on. But we already know that we won’t get 19 heads in a row then two tails, or a HTTHHTHTTHHH… iteration, because we already got 20 heads in a row, so there are only 2 options left - 20HT or 21H, each originally with only a .0000005% chance, but now with a 50% chance, because they are the only options left.
[/QUOTE]
This is the very first way I tried to explain it to him. He attacked it as completely irrelevant. I hope you have better luck than me.

[EllisDee]

[QUOTE=EsotericEnigma]
a far more effective argument against my position than the ones you’ve given, is that the larger the sample size, the more inconsequential, mathematically, the difference between heads and tails. A 52/48 split is absolutely plausible, and if we flipped a coin 100000 times, that would result in 52000 heads and 48000 tails. That means that even if the first 200 were all heads, over the next flips you STILL flipped more heads than tails, and yet the trend reversed itself. I don’t know, did you say that? That’s an argument I absolutely can’t counter. End of fanciful, devil’s-advocate-style theory.
[/QUOTE]
That is the actual refutation. To be more precise, the ratio shrinks while the absolute value increases, so even though you keep getting more heads than tails, the distribution apporaches (but never reaches) 50%. For example:

6 heads, 4 tails (60%)
57 heads, 43 tails (57%)
556 heads, 444 tails (55.6%)
5250 heads, 4750 tails (52.5%)
51023 heads, 48977 tails (51.023%)

In this sample progression, the ratio of heads to tails is clearly approaching 50%. However, if we look at the total number of heads vs tails at each total, we can see that heads are coming up more frequently every step of the way:

+2 heads
+14 heads (+12 more despite approaching 50%)
+112 heads (+98 more)
+500 heads (+388 more)
+2046 heads (+1546 more)

So despite heads becoming more and more “due”, they continue to appear more frequently. And while this is happening, the % split is getting closer and closer to 50%.

[Trunk]

It’s not even worth it. At some point, EE just has to say, “all right. I guess I’m guilty of a pretty common misconception. I’ll try to study what you’ve written, and not make the same mistake again.”

Anyway, that DET-ARI game definitely jumps out as the odd one. I’m completely on the fence about it.

I don’t mind laying points this week with any of the big spreads. There’s a huge discrepancy.

PIT -10. Cle can’t stop anyone, and PIT is going to get to Anderson enough.

NO -11.5. I’d almost go to 14 with this one.

SEA -10.

Dall -1. Not enough. They’re much better than the giants. I don’t care what Eli did to them last time. He MIGHT do it again, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

IND -3.5. Much better team. Not enough points.
I’ll take the points with
MIN +6. They’ve lost one game all year by more than a touch. That was at Dallas.

CIN +4.5. Baltimore’s seconday was finally, fully exposed for what it is, and that is a problem against Cincy. Baltimore can’t cover a #1 receiver, much less two #1 receivers. They can’t move the ball on anyone, even the Bengals.

Even when healthy, McCallister is average, and Samari Rolle is below average, not to mention Prude and Ivy, two scrubs. I’d throw 60 times if I was the bengals.

Leaning towards. . .

Phi, ATL, Buff, Oak, Arizona.

I don’t have a line yet for Jax/Tenn, but it’s going to be tennessee by 3.5 or 4. I think that’s a toss up.

Don’t have a line for KC/Denver either. I don’t know which way to go.

[SenorBeef]

[QUOTE=Trunk]

PIT -10. Cle can’t stop anyone, and PIT is going to get to Anderson enough.

[/quote]

The first part is right (although they’ve got a knack for 4th down stops, with 3 4th and short stops in the last 2 weeks… they’re better on 4th and 1 than 3rd and 15), but you won’t see Pittsburgh get to Anderson much. They did once in the first meeting in a game where it was 17-0 so fast that they could tee off on him all game. Seattle had the IIRC 5th best sacking defense in the league, and only touched Anderson once in 46 pass attempts - and that was on an uncovered corner blitz that didn’t hit him until after the ball was gone.

The game will be closer than people expect.

SEA -10.

I hate giving 10 points to a relatively inconsistent team.

I’ll take the points with
MIN +6. They’ve lost one game all year by more than a touch. That was at Dallas.

Yeah, but the one thing GB does is the thing that Minnesota can’t defend.

CIN +4.5. Baltimore’s seconday was finally, fully exposed for what it is, and that is a problem against Cincy. Baltimore can’t cover a #1 receiver, much less two #1 receivers. They can’t move the ball on anyone, even the Bengals.

You did know that 2 guys who couldn’t beat out Samarri Rolle were starting at corner, right?

Speaking of which… are those two guys still out? If so, I’d parlay Cinci and the over.

[Omniscient]

Favorite  	Mon	Tue	Wed	Final  	Underdog  	
PITTSBURGH	Off (0)	9.5	9.5	9.5	Cleveland	
GREEN BAY	6.0	6.0	5.5	6.0	Minnesota	
WASHINGTON	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	Philadelphia	
TENNESSEE	Off (0)	Off (0)	Off (0)	4.0	Jacksonville	
CAROLINA	4.5	4.0	4.0	4.0	Atlanta	
KANSAS CITY	Off (0)	Off (0)	Off (0)	3.0	Denver	
Buffalo		3.0	3.0	3.0	3.0	MIAMI	
NEW ORLEANS	12.0	11.5	11.5	11.5	St. Louis	
BALTIMORE	Off (0)	4.5	4.0	4.0	Cincinnati	
Chicago		3.0	3.0	3.5	3.5	OAKLAND	
Dallas		1.0	1.0	1.5	1.5	NEW YORK (NYG)	
ARIZONA		1.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	Detroit	
Indianapolis	3.0	3.5	3.5	3.5	SAN DIEGO	
SEATTLE		10.0	10.0	10.0	10.0	San Francisco	

Gonna run through some of the picks. Here are the Yahoo lines with whatever movement they’ve had over the last few days.

I like **Cleveland **(+9.5). This is a classic letdown game for the Steelers. They played on Monday night so they have a short week. That blowout of the Ravens isn’t really as impressive as it looks, the Ravens suck and they have sucked pretty much all season. I think the Steelers will probably win the game at home, but thats too many points to give against a very talented and hot team in the Browns. Also the Steelers haven’t really been tested by a strong passing attack all season.

Philly (+3) is another road team I like. This one is more of a gut feel than anything, but I just don’t see the Eagles staying winless within the division. The Eagles D can still cross up a young QB and Campbell is still somewhat inconsistent. This seems like the type of game where the Eagles will galvanize amidst the criticism of McNabb and Reid. Finally, this Redskins team went to overtime versus the Jets, Dolphins and Rams. would anyone be surprised if those 3 teams combined for a grand total of 5 wins this season (remember the Jets and Dolphins play each other twice)?

Buffalo (-3) seems like a gimme. Sure it’s another road game, but these are the Dolphins we’re talking about. I just can’t believe that the home crowd will be that rabid. Lynch and Evans are going off in this one.

It pains me to say this, but I think I like the Raiders (+3.5) this week over my Bears. It’s a road game for them and Cedric Benson is every bit as bad as I predicted. I’ve never seen someone tackle himself on every run before. I originally predicted he’d be chronically injured following the draft as a 4-year college starter, but he’s prevented that by diving at every tacklers ankles before contact. At this point an injury would be a godsend. I’m hoping that Hester and the defense can put up some points, very possible against those Raider QBs, but there’s no way this team should be getting points on the road. I have a hunch that Janikowski will have a big day and so will the Jordan-Fargas tandem. I’m hoping the Bears manage a narrow victory, but the smart move is to take the points.

I like the Lions (+1) getting points too. They are much better than the Cards, and their defensive front 4 will dominate the game. Edge won’t be able to run and Warner should go down regularly. I suspect that they’ll get some big plays out of the passing game, but so will the Lions. The Lions have been a different team on the road this year, but Arizona doesn’t have the type of HFA that turns the tide in games.

I sincerely hope that I’m wrong about these last 2 games so that the Bears don’t fall farther into the basement.

[SenorBeef]

A few weeks ago in another thread someone was asking about the Patriot hate. I said that there was cheating above and beyond spygate, but the NFL refuses to acknowledge it. I linked to a report where the Redskins reported having lost communications several times during the game - something that’s repeatedly mysteriously happened against the Patriots.

Found a few more examples.

From here.

“At one point we had a good drive going against the Patriots,” said one Lion who doesn’t want his name involved in this mess, but was willing to talk about it. "Mike Martz really had ‘em going. They were getting fouled up, lining up wrong, we were moving the ball. Then boom, the headset from the sidelines to the coaches’ booth goes out.

“Next possession we were moving the ball again and the same thing happened. You know it only takes two or three plays to mess up a drive.”

Matt Millen, the Lions’ GM, says he was talking to another team’s head coach at the league meetings. He started telling him the story.

“Yeah, I know,” the coach said. “Headset went out. It happened to me in Foxboro, too.”

And from here

In the wake of the Spygate scandal involving New England coach Bill Belichick, there were accusations the Patriots may have manipulated radio frequencies during games in their stadium, ostensibly to disrupt the coach-to-quarterback radio communication for visiting teams.

Well, it happened to the Browns during their game on Oct. 7 in Foxboro, Mass.

A team source said Browns coaches lost communication with Anderson eight to 10 times.

[borschevsky]

That’s not that uncommon, from what I understand. For example:

Patriots coach Bill Belichick indicated yesterday he was unable to communicate with Tom Brady via the coach-to-quarterback system wired in Brady’s helmet during Sunday’s game against the Colts.

[storyteller0910]

[QUOTE=borschevsky]
That’s not that uncommon, from what I understand. For example:
[/QUOTE]

Yeah, but it’s reached the point now where anyone with an axe to grind will assume that: (1) anything said about the Patriots is both true and indicative of intent to cheat rather than equipment failure; and (2) anything said about anyone else cheating is untrue or irrelevant.

When it comes to the Patriots, it seems like objectivitiy has vanished. Honestly, SenorBeef, if a pair of unsubstantiated accusations, both from unattributed sources, counts as real evidence of intentional wrongdoing in your book, then you made your decision long ago and are just cherry-picking for evidence that you were right all along.

[SenorBeef]

[QUOTE=storyteller0910]
Yeah, but it’s reached the point now where anyone with an axe to grind will assume that: (1) anything said about the Patriots is both true and indicative of intent to cheat rather than equipment failure; and (2) anything said about anyone else cheating is untrue or irrelevant.

When it comes to the Patriots, it seems like objectivitiy has vanished. Honestly, SenorBeef, if a pair of unsubstantiated accusations, both from unattributed sources, counts as real evidence of intentional wrongdoing in your book, then you made your decision long ago and are just cherry-picking for evidence that you were right all along.
[/QUOTE]

You won’t believe me, but you totally have my motivations wrong. I want to root for the Patriots. There’s a lot that I like about them. Bellichick often does what NFL coaches should do because they’re too rigid, timid, and not creative enough - he plays every week a different way to exploit the other team. I love that. He’s aggressive in the right situations where NFL coaches far too often err on the side of caution, such as 4th and short situations. The Patriots for the most part have built a team around players that aren’t superstars, but that are savvy, smart, and have a high motor. The team is pretty classy off the field as far as I know. They’ve done amazing things in the salary cap era. I honestly want to root for them - I’d rather be cheering for them to go 16-0 than my current position.

I think you’re much more likely to lack objectivity than I am - when I brought up cheap shotting earlier, you acted as if you had no idea what I was talking about - and maybe you didn’t - but I don’t even watch the Pats all that often and see plenty of cheap shots.

Anyway, if the Patriots did cheat in multiple ways (radio interference, video taping, illegal microphones, whatever else), what would you expect the general public to know? Do you think the NFL is going to have a press conference and say “oh yeah, the 3 time super bowl winners cheated their asses off in all sorts of ways”? No, it’d wreck the credibility of the league.

They handled the public accusation with evidence behind it because they couldn’t avoid handling it. And the Patriots were pretty severely punished. But the NFL quickly destroyed all of the tapes and became very quiet about the incident. They have a vested interest in burying this, and certainly not investigating and reporting on other potential cheating tactics.

So what you’re essentially saying that becaus the NFL hasn’t done that, which they’d never do, then the Patriots aren’t guilty. But it’s not something the NFL would do even if it was happening.

I go by what I see. The Patriots got caught and punished for cheating - the most severe NFL punishment on a team that I can think of. The NFL quickly destroyed the evidence and became silent about the issues. Other teams have let it be known in subtle ways that the Pats cheat - some coaches or other team personel have mentioned that they put mics on players illegally and it just so happens that I’ve come across like 5 different mentions of radio communications systems failing when playing against the Patriots. Their cheap shots suggest that they’re willing to push any edge they can to win.

Maybe I’m wrong. Or it could be that I’m right, but that this sort of stuff is common place (although that doesn’t excuse it). But it strikes me that most likely the Patriots do cheat beyond what they were punished for.

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

So on the third play of the Browns-Steelers game, Pittsburgh runs a reverse, needing two yards to pick up a first down. Big Ben could have laid a block on Andra Davis, and allowed Holmes the chance to try to muscle his way through a cornerback alone. Instead, Roethlisberger wimps out, ‘supports’ a block that’s already been set and Holmes gets nailed short of the line.

Part of any successful end-around requires the QB to lay a block down. Is Ben a wimp?

[Least_Original_User_Name_Ever]

Depends. Is he blocking a 300 pound lineman or eating a telephone pole because he fell off his motorcycle?

[Boozahol_Squid_P.I]

[QUOTE=Least Original User Name Ever]
Depends. Is he blocking a 300 pound lineman or eating a telephone pole because he fell off his motorcycle?
[/QUOTE]

He was blocking a 250 lb. Andra Davis. Who’s three inches shorter than him, and weighs about the same.

But yeah, I guess I can see why he might have crash aversion.

[EllisDee]

[QUOTE=SenorBeef]
Anyway, if the Patriots did cheat in multiple ways (radio interference, video taping, illegal microphones, whatever else)
[…]
the NFL […] became very quiet about the incident.
[…]
The NFL […] became silent about the issues.
[/quote]
You really believe that it’s only the Patriots who stole signals? What about the Dolphins admitting to doing it against the Patriots last year? Or Dan Marino stating that two different coaches told him that they had every single defensive signal for an entire game (and still lost!)?

The only reason the Patriots got punished was to make an example; the NFL had sent out instructions to all teams in the offseason that signal-stealing was no longer going to be treated as a nudge-nudge-wink-wink affair.

As for your ridiculous “the radio signals went out” “evidence”, next I suppose you’ll be coming after the Giants for opening the doors at the Meadowlands when the other team kicks field goals.

Oh yeah, and Commissioner Goodell spoke publicly about the entire incident multiple times, and answered all questions about why he destroyed all the evidence, why the penalty was so stiff, whether or not the evidence impacted past playoff runs, etc… What definition of “silent” and “very quiet” are you using, exactly?

[blondebear]

I just fell on the floor laughing while watching the Colts/Chargers game. San Diego can always find a new way to screw up!

[Chingon]

Hooray for Darren Sproles! The smallest man ever to get on the horse trailer!!

[drm]

As a Colts fan, these last two weeks have not been fun (last week considerably more than this week).

When you throw 6 ints you lose. Lets hope the Colts heal within the next two or three weeks and get another roll going for the playoff run.

[SenorBeef]

[QUOTE=Ellis Dee]
You really believe that it’s only the Patriots who stole signals? What about the Dolphins admitting to doing it against the Patriots last year? Or Dan Marino stating that two different coaches told him that they had every single defensive signal for an entire game (and still lost!)?

[/quote]

It’s my understanding that there’s nothing inherently wrong with stealing signals - but there are limits to the ways you can do it and the aids you can use. From what I gather, they knew what they were doing was illegal, got warned about it, and kept it up.

The only reason the Patriots got punished was to make an example; the NFL had sent out instructions to all teams in the offseason that signal-stealing was no longer going to be treated as a nudge-nudge-wink-wink affair.

Possibly. I think the NFL would’ve rather had the incident never happen. Scandals like this are something they want to stay far away from. But it was brought out publically and they had to address it.

As for your ridiculous “the radio signals went out” “evidence”, next I suppose you’ll be coming after the Giants for opening the doors at the Meadowlands when the other team kicks field goals.

Last year, before the whole spygate thing, I remember reading an article that mentioned that multiple teams had mentioned communication problems when facing the Patriots. This year again from several different sources. Do you think the whole thing was made up? That multiple team sources, or sports reporters, are lying? Or perhaps it happens regularly to every team, but only mentioned in regards to the Patriots?

You’re right, I don’t have any concrete proof. It’s quite unlikely that concrete proof would be obtained by anyone (does the NFL monitor communications frequencies at all?), or that the NFL would be inclined to bring it to light if it did.

I’m not even trying to prove the case - I personally see/hear enough sketchy stuff about the franchise that I can’t completely root for them, and I was giving reasons for that.

The Pats do seem to me to have a “win at all costs” mentality. Aggressive and unique game planning? Great. Run up the score? Fine with me. Cheap shots - very bad. And that’s not from an unnamed source, I’ve seen it with my own eyes. The biggest punishment in NFL history for knowingly breaking rules? Yep. Rumors and tidbits from other teams about shady Patriots tactics? Yep. You may be right - maybe there’s nothing beyond what’s public going on, but it’s not preposterous to think that’s not all there is to it.

Oh yeah, and Commissioner Goodell spoke publicly about the entire incident multiple times, and answered all questions about why he destroyed all the evidence, why the penalty was so stiff, whether or not the evidence impacted past playoff runs, etc… What definition of “silent” and “very quiet” are you using, exactly?

If this is true, then my bad. I’ve read maybe 2 or 3 articles in recent times that specifically about covered Patriots and potential cheating, and none of them have quoted Goodell on those matters, and at least one mentioned that he’d been quite quiet about it. I didn’t see anything on ESPN or football message boards or weekly columns that I sporadically read.

[EllisDee]

[QUOTE=SenorBeef]
Last year, before the whole spygate thing, I remember reading an article that mentioned that multiple teams had mentioned communication problems when facing the Patriots. This year again from several different sources. Do you think the whole thing was made up? That multiple team sources, or sports reporters, are lying? Or perhaps it happens regularly to every team, but only mentioned in regards to the Patriots?
[/quote]
I’m not saying it didn’t happen. I’m saying it’s foolish to classify it as cheating. I tried to make that crystal clear with my “opening the doors at the Meadowlands” comparison.

If this is true, then my bad.

If this is true? What, you think I’m lying? Goodell went on the halftime show of NBC Sunday Night Football and did an interview with Bob Costas discussing the matter shortly after handing down the punishment. Shortly after that, he went on Inside the NFL and gave a lengthier, more extensive interview on the same subject to…Bob Costas again, actually.