I disagree, the consensus seems to be that Luck is a once in a generation QB prospect. Clausen being a second round pick means they haven’t invested a lot of money into him. I think they draft Luck and trade Clausen.
I’m not a college football guy, but after this season Luck will have started, what, 21 games in college? Danger! Danger! 1st Round QBs with short résumés – less than, say, three seasons as a starter – crap out a pretty huge percentage of the time.
ETA: . . . which is not to say that you’re necessarily wrong about Carolina taking him at #1. I’m just saying that they’d be wrong to so so, IMO.
Closer to 25, which is two full seasons. That is not a particularly short resume. Tom Brady had a similar resume.
For a 1st Round pick – especially a #1 overall who’s going to command $55M guaranteed – it is a pretty short résumé. Whether because of inexperience or simply a dearth of reliable information with which NFL teams can make a judgment, highly drafted QBs with relatively little starting experience in college fail more often than similarly drafted QBs with ample starting experience.
For instance, look at Jake Locker. My understanding is that he may very well have been the #1 overall pick had he come out after last season. He stayed for his senior year, however, and now his draft stock is apparently plummeting. Because he’s starting these extra games, NFL teams have a more pessimistic* but also more accurate* understanding of his potential. If Andrew Luck were to go back for his senior season, maybe he’d play well enough to remain the consensus #1 overall pick, but maybe he’d struggle somewhat and the bloom would be off the rose; it happens all the time. (See also: Brohm, Brian.)
What consensus? He’s not even going to win the Heisman.
And Tom Brady was drafted in the sixth round.
I’ve haven’t so much given up on Troy as I’ve given up on Singletary and the chain he’s got on OC Mike Johnson.
Singletary has no talent evaluation ability at all, so I’ll take Gruden’s mind thankfully. I think his time away from coaching and in the booth has given Gruden some perspective. However, Tim Kawakami’s article pushing Harbaugh makes me put the two on even level.
No matter what, any new coach must have the power to overrule and/or fire Paraag Marathe.
I thought better of you than that you’d need the difference between the Heisman and being an NFL success explained to you.
Of course not - but there are at least three pro-style college quarterbacks doing better than him. It’s not as though he’s losing out to an option guy.
Who these three quarterbacks? Cam Newton who doesn’t play in a pro style offense? Kellen Moore who is all of six feet tall?
The only other guy I can even see in the running with Luck is Kellen Moore. And Moore has issues also, even more critical ones I think than Luck.
I was thinking of Moore and Locker (who is admittedly having a down year). I have no idea who the third guy would be.
In any event, I have no real problem with Luck being the #1 pick. He’s got more starting experience than Mark Sanchez did, for one. I don’t think for a second that he’s a “once in a generation” prospect.
And as far as my QB talent spotting skills go:
[QUOTE=Me]
McCoy has a strong enough arm and is the most accurate of this year’s quarterback class and the most mobile. You may feel free to provide a hat and see what happens.
[/QUOTE]
Need to resurrect that thread.
Although I did also predict that Bradford would be a bust.
Sam Bradford had 30 games in college but only two his senior year and suffered a shoulder injury, which you would think might worry pro teams.
Thirty-one starts, apparently, but…
That makes for 24% more starting experience than Luck, a not-insignificant amount, and…
I didn’t mean to imply that a prospect with so few starts *couldn’t *succeed or be considered worthy of a high draft pick, just that most highly drafted QBs have more starting experience, and that those low-experience QBs who are drafted high are more likely to miss than highly drafted QBs with lots of experience.
Go back and look: what would be the list of QBs taken in the top half of Round 1 with fewer than Luck’s 25 starts in college? And how many of those Quarterbacks were actually successful?
Well, Mark Sanchez, who I mentioned above, for one. It’s worth bearing in mind, though, that any quarterback who’s that good is almost always going to have started from Day One, or at least since his second year.
Yeah, Sanchez is on the list. (16 Games Started? The info can be hard to find.) Don’t let anyone tell you he’s established himself as a quality starter just yet, though. JaMarcus Russell started **29 **games. I think Joey Harrington started a *maximum *of 29 college games.
Really, while it’s entirely possible I’m missing someone, there just aren’t many 1st Round QBs at all with as few as 25 college starts, and the even the low-experience guys who are somewhat above that number tend to be some of the biggest busts of recent years.
29 games is more than two seasons, so that’s really not a bad number. So is 25, for that matter, depending on the conference.
Rick Mirer had 37 starts. Brady Quinn had 46.
i will ocncede that the 25 or so starts is thhe one red flag the pros seem to have with Luck, but do a Google search and mostdon’t think it is really that big of a concern, given what they have seen from him so far.
I expect him to go first, maybe by the team in first, or by a team trading up to get him (49ers, Vikings, Cardinals)
Quinn wasn’t drafted in the top half of the first round, though, right?
Michael Vick, Aaron Rodgers.