NFL Week 16

It was a wild weekend in the NFL, which began when Tampa Bay blew a 14-point 4th-quarter lead at home in a last second loss to the Falcons. But Carolina couldn’t take advantage, losing to the Saints on the road. The Bills came back from a 21-point deficit in New England to notch the win and move within a game of the Patriots. Trevor Lawrence had a monster day, throwing for 5 touchdowns and running for another in a rout of the Jets. The Texans routed the Cardinals, the Eagles did the same to the Raiders, as did the Bears to the Browns. The Ravens stayed in contention with a shutout win over the Bengals, and the Chargers won in Arrowhead to eliminate the Chiefs. Denver won yet another one-score game by beating the Packers, a win which clinched a playoff spot for the Broncos. The Rams won a shootout over the Lions, and they also clinched a playoff spot. The Seahawks couldn’t score a touchdown, but still managed to eke out a win over Old Man (Philip) Rivers. The Cowboys are on the brink of elimination after a home loss to the Vikes, and the Steelers eliminated Miami on Monday night. Two spots are clinched, and 13 teams are eliminated. Obviously, a lot to be settled in the last 3 weeks.

This week begins with a bang as the two top teams in the NFC meet on Thursday when the Rams visit Seattle. The Bears host the Packers in a huge NFC North game on Saturday evening, while the Chargers visit Dallas on Sunday. The NFC South lead is on the line when Tampa Bay travels to Carolina, and there is another big AFC game when Jacksonville visits Denver. Sunday night features Baltimore hosting the Patriots, and the Niners visit Indianapolis on Monday night.

Here are this week’s lines. All spreads taken from ESPNBet on Tuesday the 16th at 8:15 am CT.

Thursday:

Rams @ Seahawks (-1.5)

Saturday:

Eagles @ Commanders (+6.5)
Packers @ Bears (+1.5)

Sunday early:

Bills @ Browns (+10)
Chargers @ Cowboys (-1.5)
Chiefs @ Titans (+3.5)
Bengals @ Dolphins (+1.5)
Jets @ Saints (-4.5)
Vikings @ Giants (+3)
Bucs @ Panthers (+3)

Sunday late:

Jaguars @ Broncos (-3)
Falcons @ Cardinals (+2.5)
Steelers @ Lions (-7)
Raiders @ Texans (-14.5)

Sunday night:

Patriots @ Ravens (-3)

Monday night:

49ers @ Colts (+5.5)

Not unlike Adam Thielen’s departure from the Vikings a few weeks ago, the Jets released WR Allen Lazard today, at his request.

Lazard was the last remaining player with the Jets who had been brought in to help lure Aaron Rodgers to the team in 2023; he had played little this season, was a healthy scratch in four games, and only had 10 receptions. Just like Thielen, Lazard asked to be released in hopes of signing on with a contender.

I was going to jokingly ask if the Steelers need a receiver, but they, in fact, signed Thielen two weeks ago, and they have another of Rodgers’ former Packer receivers, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, on the active roster.

Washington (Quinn) finally realized that destroying QB Daniels in a series of meaningless games is bad. They’re shutting him down. It will take much of the off season to heal up the injuries he’s been playing through / or not playing.

Repeating what @Jasmine just said in the Week 15 thread: tomorrow night is absolutely a monster game in the NFC West. Both the Rams and Seahawks are 11-3, with the Rams having defeated Seattle in their earlier meeting. If the Rams win, the division is theirs for the taking, as they have the Falcons and Cardinals remaining on their schedule. Should the Seahawks win, they would have a 1 game lead with two to play, but still must face the Panthers and Niners.

A 3-way tie for the division with the teams finishing at 13-4 remains a possibility, especially if Seattle wins tomorrow.

I’m very excited to watch this game. And a bit nervous. Go Hawks!

I’m not nervous.

I always dig my fingernails into my palm until I draw blood, that’s just my thing.

So what happens then?

Tie breakers

Oh, God, you have to be Isaac Newton to do the math on that right now because of the various possible ways they could end up tied. :flushed:

I think there’s only one way they could all end up 13-4.

Niners are currently 10-4, so they would have to win their last 3 games. That would mean defeating the Seahawks, which would give Seattle their 4th loss.

If that happens, then Seattle has to win their other two games, one of of which is against the Rams. That would be LA’s 4th loss.

Which means that the Rams have to win their other two games to finish at 13-4.

Week 16: Seahawks beat Rams, Niners beat Colts
Week 17: Niners beat Bears, Seahawks beat Panthers, Rams beat Falcons
Week 18: Niners beat Seahawks, Rams beat Cardinals

Should all these outcomes occur, the Niners would win the division by virtue of a 3-1 head-to-head record against the other two teams, while both the Seahawks and Rams would have a 2-2 record.

It’s crazy that the 49ers have legitimate, if small, chance at the #1 seed after losing so many starters on defense and extended absences of offensive starters, including QB. It was really rough there weeks 6-10. Kyle Shanahan should be a strong coach of the year candidate for keeping his team together and going 5-3 with his backup QB.

Then you probably have to figure out another tiebreaker for wild card seeding purposes between Seattle and LA.

Should those outcomes occur the tiebreak between the Rams and Hawks would be

  • H2H would be 1-1
  • Rams division record would be 4-2 while Hawks would be 3-3 so Rams would be the higher seed.

That’s also the way I had it calculated.

The other wild-card will be either the Packers or the Bears. That team will have at least 5 losses, so it would be WC #3, behind the Rams and Seahawks.

As it stands now, the 49ers would play at Philly. While I like that matchup fot SF, I’d prefer someone else. My best friend is an Eagles fan, and I’d rather not face off in round one.