Also, there’s something to be said that no two shots are exactly alike, and it has every bit to do with the defenders positioning, traffic in front of goalie (or lack of), angle of shot, etc.
As I recall from the announcers noting that a majority of the shots taken by the opposing teams against the Ducks, are mostly sharp-angle, point shots that a goalie has clear vision on, or shots blocked by sticks, legs or bodies which reduce the number of shots and quality scoring chances.
On the other side of the coin, Anaheim’s passing has improved tremendously to the point that less shots are taken, but they tend to be high quality scoring chances from getting the defense/goalie to be out of position. Rather than pounding away with extra low quality shots, they will make that extra pass to improve the scoring chances of their next shot.
And they (the announcers) have stated this repeatedly from game to game…and I’ve seen enough Duck games to agree with that assessment.
Shot quality is often cited as an overlooked fault of shot counting metrics, but there’s increasingly conclusive evidence that there is, counter-intuitively, little to no impact on things and that quantity > quality. Teams that are regularly out shot will, in the long term, generally lose more than they win due to the randomness of shots.
That explanation just doesn’t make any sense at all. Take a look at this, which admittedly has the problem of a small sample size, but it shows that shots from the crease are goals 20% of the time while shots from the point are goals 3-4% of the time.
Now, if you want to argue that the distribution of shot quality follows a normal distribution and that teams generate high and low quality shots in similar proportions over the course of a season, I could believe that. But I would have to see a mountain of data before I’d believe that shot quality doesn’t exist.
Perhaps I’m explaining it wrong. Here’s a fairly recent article that uses, perhaps not a mountain, but at least a large hill of data for show that conclusion.
Additionally, the comments are full of further discussion worth reading.
There are more articles out there. Enough so that the hockey metrics crowd as a whole has accepted it as a fact and largely moved on. They even had a contest a year or two ago offering cash to anyone who could demonstrate that shot quality was at least as important as shot quantity and, to my knowledge, no one even attempted it.
And the Kings follow up with a shutout on the Coyotes. Rookie Tyler Toffoli gets his first goal and an assist in the win…ahhhh…it’s good to be SoCal tonight by beating up the neighbors!
Caps in Pittsburgh tonight. Remember the good ol’ days (two or three years ago) when this would have been guaranteed to be a good, hard fought, close game.
I do feel sorry for those fans whose teams play consistently good or even bad. Here in DC we don’t know what team will show up game to game, adds to the excitement :smack:
I don’t think anyone’s arguing that, though. I think anyone would agree that a shot from your own blue line is very unlikely to go in, while a shot taken in the crease is a huge threat to go in. The argument is that the distribution of shots will be generally the same.
If one thinks through it, this makes a lot of sense. Suppose you were to decide that, since 20% of crease shots go in, you’ll make an effort to take ALL your shots in the crease. Would that work? Well, no, of course not, it’d fail spectacularly. You cannot deliberately increase your crease shots by a significant amount, because the other team is attempting to prevent exactly that. Of course all players would prefer to try to pop it in from just outside the goal, but in practice that isn’t possible, for exactly the same reason that basketball players can’t just take either dunks or wide open three-pointers; the defense is conscious that those are the highest percentage scoring plays and is trying to prevent those plays.
A team is much likelier to increase their high percentage shots by maintaining possesion of the puck, That’s what yeilds more crease shots and other high quality shots. In fact, the low quality point shots are themselves part of what creates those shots, because they force the defense to cover the point, create rebounds, offer chances for tip-ins, and other courses of action that lead to high percentage opportunities.
So, I’m thinking that Ottawa has seen quite enough of the Atlantic division this season. So far Karlsson, Spezza and Michalek have been injured in games against the Penguins, Anderson was injured against the Rangers, Lundin was concussed by the Flyers, and tonight Mike Methot was injured against the Islanders (no update as to his status yet).
I made a joke elsewhere that Cowen was probably taken out by the Devils’ AHL affiliate. Turns out, he was. :smack:
10 Straight for the Pens! I just hope they’re not peaking too early.
What’s really nice to see is they have been playing really solid team defense recently and have gotten great goaltending as well. If they can keep the defensive side up, they’ll be extremely hard to beat in the playoffs. Especially if Malkin comes back healthy.
And yet the Senators continue to win. It defies explanation. The team’s best forward, best defenceman, and best goalie are all out. Milan Michalek is out, too. The team points leader is Sergei Gonchar. The best plus minus on the team belongs to a guy allegedly named “Silfverberg.” The second line center, Zack Smith, is the worst defensive forward I’ve ever seen. And still they win.
Ok…who’s gonna be watching THE GAME tonight…Ducks v. Blackhawks? First meeting between these two, in Anaheim. Very similar playstyles, Ducks slightly bigger, both teams with hot goalie tandems…what’s not to love except a 10pm East Coast start time?
…And the Ducks do it in regulation…the first two periods was great back and forth action, and the Ducks let up in the beginning of the third, until Bollig’s kicked in goal was disallowed, and then Getzlaf took over with two great assists for Ryan and Selanne to take the lead and keep it.
And…my bad…that’s the second meeting between the Ducks and Hawks where Ducks won in a shootout back in February.
Fantastic game between the Hawks and Ducks. This really felt like Game 1 of the first playoff series ever between the two teams. Terrific atmosphere, great finish, and one brutal high stick to Andrew Cogliano’s face that is exactly the kind of thing that turns a simple game into a real rivalry.
Oh yeah…that. If the front office doesn’t do anything with that, then a brutal rivalry will ensue in the playoffs…or just the next game between the two. Cogliano did go back out on the ice though for another shift or two.
I find that when I watched a game live or on broadcast, my focus is on the play and stuff that happens away from the play doesn’t usually get my attention. How common/acceptable is it to take shots (stick to the back, etc.) at opposing players on the way to the bench, etc.
Wings 2 in row at Anaheim
They really are a study in playing to the level of their opponent. If they could only play every game against a top 3 team and skip the Jackets and Flames.
Pens make it 12! I just wish we’d stop waiting until the last minute to start winning.
(Although how was that NOT a penalty when Coburn boarded Dupuis?)
I just wish we’d stop waiting until the last minute to start winning.