The number 16 has not come up at all in this year’s New York Lotto drawings, either as a regular or supplementary number.
http://www.nylottery.org/winner/lottores.php3
What are the odds of this???
What are the odds of the number 16 not having come up all year? 100%.
What would be the odds if someone wagered on January 1st, 2001?
02/07/2001 03, 04, 06, 16, 27, 40 Bonus Number: 15
The odds will not change. They are the same each time.
Alright, let’s make some assumptions to avoid 40 more drive by postings. Assume that the State of Straight Dope has a lottery, with two drawings every week, drawing six numbers each time, with those numbers being between 1 and 50. After 104 draws, what is the probability of the number 16 never having been drawn. Show your work.
Well, if it’s pick 6 out of 50, the probability 16 will never be picked out of 104 draws is
[C(49,6)/C(50,6)][sup]104[/sup] = .000168%
I really don’t see how that probability is worth a damn for anything, however. It seems to me the OP was somewhat surprised that 16 had never come up this year (we’ll ignore for the moment that it actually did come up). The point is, there’s nothing special about 16–the OP would have been surprised if any number had been left out of all the drawings. The probability of that happening seems to be a much better question, and is sure to be significantly higher. I don’t know if I’ll get around to finding it, though.
According to a Bottom Line article I read one time, lotteries tend to have the same numbers come up more frequently than they should in theory, but not enough to indicate fraud (they didn’t give a reason for this), and they suggested that you play the numbers which come up most frequently. Never got around to figuring out if this was true or not (my state doesn’t have a lottery), so I don’t know how valid it is. Would be interesting to see someone do a real study of this.
what the hell are you talking about?
12/02/2000 13, 14, 16, 17, 40, 48 Bonus Number: 34
12/13/2000 01, 11, 16, 19, 25, 29 Bonus Number: 28
ignore me please I am very sleepy
OK, first, we need to define the parameters. The number 16 has not been drawn from 2/10/01 to 11/28/01 (a total of 85 drawings). Each drawing consists of randomly choosing 6 different numbers between 1 and 59, then choosing a 7th different number.
The odds of not choosing #16 in one drawing: 1 in 1.135 (88.1%)
The odds of not choosing #16 in 85 consecutive drawings: 1 in 45934 (.00217%)
That the answer, 1 in 45934 … but let’s take it a step further:
The odds of any number (#1 through #59) not being chosen for 85 consecutive drawings (in 85 total drawings): 1 in 779 (.128%)
And assume that these drawings have been taking place 104 times a year for 5 years:
The odds of any number (#1 through #59) not being chosen for 85 consecutive drawings (in 520 total drawings): 1 in 2.336 (42.8%)
So, in conclusion, if the New York Lotto runs for 5 years, there is a 42.8% chance that one number will not be chosen for 85 consecutive drawings (42 1/2 weeks). Therefore, there is absolutely nothing special about the events mentioned in the OP.
I haven’t checked the calculations, but great answer, Monocracy!
Still, I bet a lot more people are going to use the number 16 in their Lotto picks. 