Believe it or not, I’m sympathetic to having the Met turn the dial one way or another. What I was criticizing was advocating live ammunition purely on the basis that it would feel satisfying. Furthermore, while I’ve shown upthread that austerity measures tend to systematically cause this sort of behavior, that’s an entirely different argument than saying the riots were caused by deprivation. My WAG is that they’re caused by pissed off youth (pissed in the American sense) with a fair heaping of opportunism. [1]
The comparison was between Latvia and Iceland, and I’ve shown charts backing my case up.
The UK has low interest rates. It’s not facing anything resembling a solvency crisis. Are you seriously suggesting that the shock hitting the UK was proportionate to one that hit Iceland? Recall that all three of Iceland’s major banks collapsed. Last I heard, HSBC and Barclays were doing fine. Northern Rock wasn’t really in their league, was it?
[1] More generally, there’s a lot more of what Americans call liberal horseshit in the British media. That sort of stuff has been squeezed out over the past 30 years here, for better or worse.
Not really. You showed relative GDP contractions between the two. There’s far more to Iceland’s recession/financial crisis than a GDP contraction, namely they’re likely going to be forced to enter the EU against the will of the electorate and the UK and Netherlands will probably rape Iceland over the Icesave dispute during EEA legal proceedings. Calling this faring better than Latvia is a stretch; it’s too early to tell who will come out stronger in the long run.
Further, Iceland and Latvia aren’t like for like comparisons. For all Latvia’s advances since the fall of Communism and entering the EU, much of Latvia is still dirt poor with very little modern infrastructure outside of the big cities; any train ride into the Latvian countryside will show this. It’s hard to take seriously a comparison between one of the most developed countries in the world on the one hand and Latvia on the other.
Northern Rock was the fifth largest issuer of mortgages in the UK. But you’re also forgetting a few other nationalised or part nationalised banks in the UK: namely Bradford and Bingley and HBOS-Lloyds TSB, as well as a substantial bail out of the Royal Bank of Scotland. In other words, two of the big four with other minor banks in the UK either were (part) nationalised or bailed out to the tune of £40 billion+.
Yes, largely due to the government’s willingness to get our finances in order. Trying to separate the two is silly.
In a thread in the Pit some time ago ,I didn’t wish to reveal a persons name (who had been killed in an accident , Gary said that if I.M.d him with the name then he wouldn’t reveal it and carry on the debate.
I didn’t want to reveal the name because it would have caused a lot of hurt to the family of the deceased.
GARY KUMQUAT then I.M.d me to say that if I mentioned the person involved then he would post it.
This even though, he’d given his word that he wouldn’t.
Sorry, but he’s a particulary loathsome piece of filth, and anything he says is a none starter.
You are a pathetic , lieing little coward, a cocksucking little nobody .
Of course if this upsets you then feel free to I.M. me to meet up .
But you g/f tells me that you won’t turn up.
You have got to be the biggest coward, and liar that I have ever come across.
I have no idea how to respond to that accusation. Our exchange of private messages are still recorded on this message board, and have absolutely no resemblance to the exchange you describe. None. However, as they are private messages, I do not feel comfortable quoting them fully. I have reported this post purely because I’d like a mod to confirm that, as you’ve made reference to them in public, I can actually post the messages as proof that you are full of shit.
In an act of sheer self indulgence, I will quote the last sentence you sent me in our exchange:
"Thanks again for your P.M.,its trite I know but while I disagree with you I respect your opinion(Even though its WRONG you spawn of hell,damn you damn you damn you)
Have a good 'un "
Hello Mods, any chance someone could confirm if I’m allowed to post the messages we exchanged as proof that L4L is an embittered wee cunt talking a huge pile of steaming arse.
Actually, fuck it. Let me quote a little more of the message I sent to you:
"I can confirm I will not forward this pm to anyone else, or mention it in the thread unless you raise it there. However, I also have to repeat that this case in no way supports the contention in your OP. It reveals only projection by you.
The description of the incident was…
DESCRIPTION OF THE INCIDENT WE WERE DISCUSSING
…As stated above, I have no intention of repeating your message in the boards. However, if you should say in the thread that you have sent me details of the incident, then I will have to state why I do not think it supports your OP, and will probably have to explain why."
There was a big discussion about this in ATMB some time back. The conclusion (much to my disappointment) was that PMs are not, in fact, “private”. Unless things have changed, you can share any and all of it.
[Moderating] Gary Kumquat, Lust4Life, please take your personal squabble to its own thread, instead of hijacking this one.
Gary, please remember not to call other posters “cunts” in the BBQ Pit, or any of the other terms listed here.
On the subject of whether the contents of PMs can be divulged or not… you know, I really don’t know where we stand on that right now. I think it’s allowed, but I’m checking with the mod loop to confirm. I might not be able to get back to you on this until Sunday evening or sometime on Monday, though. Feel free to PM me if I leave you hanging on this.
[/Moderating]
Per message sent, I will happily start a thread for it once you’ve confirmed what can be quoted. Till then, do you really expect me to start a thread on this with the content “Lust4Life is lying, but I can’t show actually show you what was said”?
Yeah, but I’m not talking about how they will fare in the Olympics, I’m comparing the efficacy of different economic policies. During times of recession and excess capacity, adding to aggregate demand will increase output whether you are in Boston or Bangalore.
Snark aside though… huh? Iceland is going to be forced to enter the EU (via… an EU central bank bailout???). Didn’t know that.
Sounds like the UK situation is analogous to the US. Neither were hit as hard as Iceland. Right?
Frankly, this is an empirical matter. But here in the States, lots of naysayers have warned about how the bond market would take its revenge on the Fed and Federal government. Hasn’t happened. Those who took such advice, terrible in retrospect, lost money. That said, yes admittedly effects run in both directions. Optimal policy would lower the long and medium run deficit while adding to the short run deficit. This is mainstream economics that I am pushing and indeed was endorsed by the conservative Economist magazine this very week. Conservative that is by European standards.
Admittedly this doesn’t go far enough given the hole the US is in but… well we’re talking about UK anyway.
Yes, but I’m saying that it’s simply impossible to fairly compare Iceland and Latvia in this way, as the social, development and technological levels of the two countries are so different. As a result, using Iceland and Latvia to draw conclusions about the efficacy of different economic policies is pretty bizarre.
Eastern Europe has come a long way, but having travelled extensively around it, I’m going to have to say that outside the major cities large swathes of countries like Latvia and Lithuania are still like the third world (but rapidly improving, in part due to a lot of EU money flooding in). Even the capital cities of the Baltic States aren’t exactly as well developed as even minor cities in Western and Central Europe.
Iceland, on the other hand, routinely tops lists for the world’s most developed countries, and successfully diversified their economy in the 1990s into new sectors like biotechnology, software development, various other services, as well as maintaining their traditional ferrosilicon and aluminium production industries. Latvia’s economy is still centred around manufacturing farming equipment. It’s just not a fair comparison to point to Latvia and say that austerity didn’t work because the country didn’t fare as well during a recession as Iceland.
I agree that Latvia is different than Iceland. But you haven’t shown how their differences relate to the efficacy of fiscal policy. Maybe fiscal policy would be more effective in Latvia.
If you wanted to make that argument, you would say that Latvia had more pressing solvency issues than Iceland, because international capital markets trust 2nd world countries less than first world countries. But you would really need to get more specific: you would need to measure each country’s access to domestic savings for example. Admittedly I haven’t presented such a country study either. I’ll note though that the Growth Through Austerity argument is highly dubious in the absence of an export boom led by depreciation of the currency. In fact that’s the only empirically supportable mechanism for such as story, AFAIK. Woolly appeals to business confidence are a little lame (unless somebody comes up with an example of this working).
I can back up a bit though. Some have praised Latvia for their successfully applied austerity measures. In terms of outcomes, such an argument is demonstrably dubious. No country whose income drops much faster than Iceland did after the crisis can call itself a smashing success. I mean sheesh their GDP declined 25% from peak to trough! They Have Made a Desert - The New York Times
