Living in that role under a regime like NK has got to be a perpetual Sword of Damocles thing your whole life. Dictators tend to be a paranoid bunch. Look at what Stalin and Hussein (to name two) did to Generals (and others in power) on a regular basis. And remember there is always someone else who wants your position and perks who will sow doubt and uncertainty whenever possible to get the secret police on your ass.
Me? I’d be out of there in a flash with a deal like that on the table. More, I would make certain on my way out about what the deal was to my NK comrades (in notes left behind just as I left) and make it clear I will send postcards from the Bahamas if I get there. SK would have to live up to its side of the deal or it’d never work again.
Not to mention if it did work setting me up with a nice place and lifetime pension is a helluva lot cheaper than firing a handful of Tomahawks. It is a bargain for SK.
Suppose you are South Korea. You have persuaded a sufficient number of Kim’s underlings to switch sides. You have just flushed the government of North Korea down the toilet. Now you have 200 outstretched hands, none of which have any force with which to pursue their claims. They have been your hated foes for years, and are very likely directly responsible for the deaths of your countrymen and perhaps even members of your family.
Never know when you may want to persuade someone else in the future the same way and to a government like SK it is not much to pay out. If by defecting those guys saved a fighter jet or two from getting shot down they moneyed out. If they stopped one or two skyscrapers from getting shelled they moneyed out. Not a bad deal at all.
IIRC the US has made good in the past to spies/officials on similar deals. Presumably once we had them we could have told them to fuck off but we didn’t. Not sure where I read that though…may have been a Clancy novel.
The offer comes with a satellite view of North Korea at night. It’s not a sinking ship, it’s a coral reef looking for fish.
The generals know what is going on. Toss the little troll in a room full of dry ice and his holiness passes into history.
This is naive. The fact that you might have paid once does not make any future offers to pay someone else any more credible. The games are always different, and so the strategic logic is always different. After all, how would a single North Korean general know you would (quite irrationally) pay him on the off chance that it may increase your future credibility in other such negotiations?
He probably believes in his heart of hearts that had the situation been reversed, all of the traitors would be the first up against the wall and shot by the people who promised them a comfortable Caribbean retirement. There is simply insufficient incentive to honor the contract.
You don’t get to be a generalissimo in North Korea by being very trusting of your worst enemies. So it probably comes as no surprise whatsoever that even if such a deal were extended, no one would accept it. And knowing that no one would accept it, South Korea would never extend it.
Of course it does! Hell, go to a bank and ask for a loan. First thing they will look at is how good you have been at paying off your debts in the past. T-Bills have value because the US has never defaulted on them. On and on this goes.
Can the US all of a sudden decide to not pay on a T-Bill? Sure. But then their credibility is shot and people will be distrustful of the things from then on. Fail to pay your car loan? You can bet the next lender will be wary of you.
It is no different here. Sure they could screw them but at the price of not being able to entice anyone else in the future with the same offer.
Of course SK would not extend the offer unless there was a worthwhile upside for them. Just paying off General-A only to have him replaced a day later with General-B and nothing changes would be silly. SK needs to have something in it for them. If (and it is a big “IF”) they could destabilize NK and make the government collapse and achieve a bloodless (or even just not see Seoul in ruins) victory then paying off 300 Generals/Bureaucrats is freaking cheap.
Since my knowledge of North Korea is basically what I read in Pyongyang, the occasional news story, and Team America: World Police, maybe someone who knows more can answer this: Is there any reason to believe that there will be any drastic changes or an opening of North Korea when Kim dies, such as what used to be expected upon Castro’s death?
Haven’t seen any little Kim’s running around in front of a camera so that would be the million dollar question. That’s why I think it would be a good idea to court his generals now. Avoid the rush.
We really don’t know who or what will take over when Kim passes off this mortal coil. North Korea is so locked up we can’t get a handle on the issue. However, what we do know suggests that frankly, neither do the North Koreans, including the leadership. When Kim dies, it’s going to be a mad free-for-all, and nobody knows exactly how far it will go. At the least, Kim has sveral children who would make a play for it. The military would probably still want to be insular, but they mght also want to take over, and we really don’t know who within the military might emerge as leaders.
Secondly, there is a nasty problem that we really can’t communicate, Magiver. There’s no way to really bribe anyone there. (What would they buy? And with western currency? Even having South Korean cash would be near-treason in North Korea.) You can’t just talk to people there, and the military definitely would not risk doing so.
Well, they are a potential for very cheap labor. The people have had so little for so long, that we can exploit the crap out of them . All we have to do is knock down the political barriers . Industry is moving from country to country looking for the next cheap labor. Korea will fit well. After Kim we can bribe his kids and the military. It has worked so well in the past.
The “bribe” is a normal life in SK which would be a considerable step up. You make it to the people in power. As I said before, the generals probably have a fair idea of life outside of NK and would prefer life in the 21st century instead of living in a cave when the sun goes down.
IIRC Kim Jong Crazy has gone out of his way to red-carpet his succession to his favored son, no idea whom that is and no cite, but I swear I read it somewhere on the intertubes.
My guess: Attention. Kim’s worst nightmare, worse than being invaded and overthrown, is seeing his regime reduced to the international irrelevance it deserves.
Note that “will be erased from the map” has a subtle, but different connotation than “will be destroyed.” There is some controversy as to what the actual intent behind the statement is in its original language, rather than its English translation. Ditto for the “Death to Israel/America” stuff.
Most of my thoughts on the matter have been expressed in previous posts so I’ll just pull them all together here.
Selling them to a terror group for profit just doesn’t make sense and was never part of the plan. NK has billions in infrastructure and development. Selling nukes off for the few millions that al-qaeda could afford is not going to work. They’d get to sell maybe two before someone starts lobbing cruise missiles at the facility and probably a few at the presidential palace or whatever they have. And having sold them to terrorists costs them any sympathy they might have had in the global community so no one is going to scream about them getting bombed.
So it’s a status/negotiation ploy. Though there is some usefulness as a deterent in the event that someone does decide to invade.
