From Radio Netherlands:
So, will they or won’t they?
If they really do it, how does that affect NK’s relations with the U.S. and others?
If they close it, it’ll stay closed until they feel like re-opening it, and the dance will continue.
It will probably be reopened within months of receiving their frozen foreign assets.
Something’s always up with them. I honestly don’t know why we don’t just nuke the place now and have done with it. Will have to happen sooner or later.
Yes…they will and they won’t. Just like last time.
They will get to dunk their collective heads back in the gravy train…and the US can collectively go back to sleep about NK. Until we start the cycle again. NK’s only real export is fear…and they have a lot of hungry mouths to feed at that trough.
-XT
Apparently the “Sticking Point” in the negotiations was the freeing up of a locked foriegn acct. The total… Less than $25 million US.
That is one broke, desparate country. $25 million is like what… 5 minutes worth of the US operations budget.
They will re-open that reactor as soon as they need/want to, and close it, and open it…
FML
Because that would be mass murder, and accomplish . . . what ? Besides get lots of people in North and South Korea killed, between the nukes and NK’s artillery that they have aimed at the South. And, of course, ruin America’s reputation even worse than it is now.
It may be that they’ll try to reopen it in the future, but I’m sure it’s not quite as simple as you seem to be implying here - it is, after all, a nuclear reactor, not a swimming pool.
Hey, if your workforce is motivated by the equation:
Laziness = Having your entire family shot
…then everybody into the pool. Besides, NK saying they closed the reactor means nothing, and even if the facility is inspected, all the gear and materiel could be simply moved off-site, to be gradually brought back as soon as the foreign devils leave. Or they could just start construction of a new reactor elsewhere, to be used as a bargaining chip in 2011.
I’m going to add my vote to the, “Yes, it will close, and no it won’t stay closed.” position.
I’m sure the IAEA is aware of those possibilities and has ways of dealing with them.
Sure, they’ll send in the IAEA police and bust up the joint. Then they’ll arrest North Korea and throw them in IAEA lockup and call them up before the IAEA judge who will consider whether or not to grant IAEA bail. Then North Korea can do a hitch in IAEA prison and eventually get IAEA parole.
Hey, that’s great. You can bump this thread again in a year or so when NK threatens to re-open it unless more assets are freed.
Personally, as somebody who’s been hanging out in China for the past two weeks and soaking up all their state-run media (as though that gives me any authority!) I think that the problem is ultimately the tension, what of it that remains, between China and America. The reason North Korea still exists is that the Chinese spend some effort subsidizing it; the reason that they do is because there are still American military forces in South Korea; while North Korea is mostly a Chinese client state, there are no Chinese soldiers standing on the 54th parallel and this creates safety. The Chinese are as distressed about Kim Jong Il’s volatility as everyone else, and would like their valuable buffer zone to be more stable, but to directly alienate the North Koreans by not sticking by them might cause them to go renegade, and a North Korea without Chinese support would evaporate, destroying the buffer zone and eventually leading to the PLA and either American soldiers or American-supported South Korean soldiers staring each other down.
I have a feeling that there’s nothing in the world Hu Jintao would like better than to put Kim Jong-Il over his knee and beat him with a belt until he behaves himself and stops making waves, but until some kind of lasting military cooperation occurs between America and China, I think this is impossible.
Which ‘last time’?
Under the Agreed Framework (1994?), they agreed to shut it, and it stayed shut until Bush decided that we and NK didn’t have a deal anymore. Then they opened it.
Now Bush has re-obtained Clinton’s deal, but NK now has a few plutonium bombs to play with.
And who knows whether they were within 20 years of producing a uranium bomb.
Cite, please? I really thought that it was NK’s actions that ended the deal, not Shrub’s.
According to this Wiki link, it does seem that there’s credible reports that the 1994 Agreed Framework was already being violated by NK, prior to the Bush Administration’s actions.
I’ll understand if you claim you can’t trust the Bush administration if it claimed that it’s sunny, today, here in upstate NY, but… I’m not going to say that I have a great deal of faith in Kim Il Jong’s honesty, either.
I don’t see any contradiction there. The Yongbyon reactor is a plutonium reactor; the alleged violations were with respect to uranium.
I missed your part of the thread where you helped us out by offering an alternative besides “letting a nuclear power starve and get more desperate” and “bribe them”.
-Joe