His main site is back up, with a map showing Kerry with 311 electoral votes and Bush with 213. But when I click “Here’s how we got there,” I get an error message, so I’m not even sure if this is based on exit polls or what.
Daniel
NEWS FLASH: Zogby predicts landslide win for Kerry in EC
Released: November 02, 2004
Our Call
Zogby International’s 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)
Please note that Zogby Final predictions
will come out Election Day at 5 pm
2004 Presidential Election
Electoral Votes:
Bush
213
Kerry
311
To Close To Call
Nevada (5)
To Close To Call
Colorado (9)
Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%
The telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2
This is a bit counter intuitive and if it holds will be a bit of an upset. It points towards latinos here voting against Bush but for Martinez. Martinez ran a very negative primary campaign and a very negative Senate campaign. Castor was endorsed by conservative newspapers (I’m not sure about Orlando and Miami). I’ve heard several local public radio segments where the voters wanted to vote for Castor but also wanted the pride of a Cuban-American Senator. I hope that he’s a better person after the election than before it.
This is based on exit polls. However, Kerry is just only slightly ahead in key states. This ISN’T in the bag for Kerry by far yet.
Zogby’s seems to be arriving at this figure by giving Kerry OH, FL AND Pennsylvania…I think this is wildly early to be giving Kerry ALL of them at this point. However, if Kerry just wins 2 of the 3 he’ll be the next president. Course, if Bush wins 2 of the 3 he will remain president.
-XT
The real test:
Will the exit poll results match the Diebold voting machine tabulations?
The other Senate race that interested me was the fact he’s got Daschle losing…I mean I’m not very up to date on my South Dakota politics, but I’ve got to figure this a major loss for the Dems if things stay the way they are. Any idea what the last senate majority or minority leader to lose was?
From Slate, by way of DailyKos (since Slate is down at the moment), as of 20:41 GMT:
NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI
Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51
Bush 50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46
Holy Cow! What made Brutus so wordy today? Can’t remember when I have seen two paragraphs from him before.
Now, to the election. I’m just back from Wisconsin, as a poll watcher. Some problems this morning in Kenosha (3 precincts) when there were lines waiting to vote. People were being told they couldn’t vote if they were not registered. Not true in Wisconsin – you can register and vote at the same time. Kerry poll watchers are armed with cameras to photograph any intimidation.
Seem to be a lot of register + vote young people today – probably a good sign for Kerry.
Kim N. Boyce was running unopposed for Soil and Water Supervisor, District 1. I exercised my civic duty and voted for a write-in candidate.
In the event Ms Boyce wins the election and distrastrous effects befall the soil and water in district 1, I can confidently say,
Don’t blame me. I voted for Kodos.
Carlson and Begala are hosting things on CNN right now, and Tucker has pretty much conceded. I think we can call it for Kerry. You heard it here first, folks!!
I arrived at my usual polling place this morning only to find that they had divided the area I live in into 2 polling places… and people who lived where I do had to go to a different location about a block away.
In the garage of a MORTUARY!
Weirdness.
No problems voting though, and it was fairly fast as well.
Well, with proof like that who can question? I guess everyone can go home now. 
-XT
From Wonkette, 5:40 p.m.:
There’s more, but the site’s slow at the moment.
From Wonkette, 5:25 p.m.:
I thought that the dead were only entitled to vote in Chicago.
Wasn’t everyone scolding the TV news orgs for making early predictions in 2000, after everyone belatedly realized that the Florida panhandle was in a different time zone than the rest of the state? Did that go down the memory hole?
Here’s the rest of Wonkette’s 5:40 post:
Not an explicit prediction, but just the way he was talking about the high turnout and other subjects. He was completely dejected.
Ah, I see.
'Course, now for some reason I have a mental picture of Tucker Carlson’s bow tie changing colour in response to his moods. “Hey, look, now it’s turning blue! No wait, yellow, that means happy…Iowa must have gone to Bush!”
[small](I just finished the submission process for my first NSF grant proposal, and I’m a little giddy. Bear that in mind. I’ll go now.)[/small]
Another update. Looking mighty fine if you happen to be Kerry, or someone who hates Bush.
6 p.m. Exit polls
by kos
Tue Nov 2nd, 2004 at 22:36:35 GMT
Getting close to real results. But these are the last batch of exits.
Grain of salt and all that…
Kerry Bush
PA 53 46
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
MI 46 54
AK 47 53
MI 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
MN 54 44
WI 52 47
IA 49 49