Musk is headed for the “Lady Gaga” syndrome. Remember when she was just brilliant and cutting edge? Then she walked away from key people and things went downhill fast. One person can only do so much, it requires a perfect storm of talented people all working at the same level. He’s now getting out of his depth, spreading himself too thin, and his personality is running good people away.
Except Gaga still has award-winning talent and continues to prove it.
A key difference is in not “needing” to be THE one and only top superstar of everything. Musk could have been The undisputed Man in commercial spaceflight with a nice EV gig on the side. But he just needed to do something about how Someone Is Wrong On Twitter About Me.
It was already more than that, although even trying to run both SpaceX and Tesla was stretching him too thin – but there was also Starlink, Neuralink, the Boring Company, SolarCity, and probably others I’m forgetting. Taking on Twitter at the same time is sheer arrogant madness, to the point that I’m certain there’s something wrong with him at quite a basic level.
And those other than Starlink should have shown that he was not the genius that turned everything that he touched into gold.
He had ideas and money. Some of those ideas could be combined with his money to do cool things like SpaceX and Starlink (though the latter is still to be determined how much of a benefit it ends up being), but also tried to combine his money with bad ideas, or at least ideas that were not yet feasible.
Let’s not let SpaceX off the hook so quickly as not being something he combined his money together with bad ideas. What was the stated goal in making SpaceX again?
It was founded in 2002 by Elon Musk with the stated goal of reducing space transportation costs to enable the colonization of Mars.
And how’s that been going? SpaceX’s own website still has a Marvel Studios Ironman vision on its feasibility:
WHY MARS?
At an average distance of 140 million miles, Mars is one of Earth’s closest habitable neighbors. Mars is about half again as far from the Sun as Earth is, so it still has decent sunlight. It is a little cold, but we can warm it up. Its atmosphere is primarily CO2 with some nitrogen and argon and a few other trace elements, which means that we can grow plants on Mars just by compressing the atmosphere. Gravity on Mars is about 38% of that of Earth, so you would be able to lift heavy things and bound around. Furthermore, the day is remarkably close to that of Earth.
You know, tiny little problems like it’s a little cold (average temperature -81F, dipping to -220F, nothing wearing a Tony Stark suit won’t tide you over for a while), but don’t worry. we can warm it up! How? Umm… hey look over there! Gravity is only about 1/3 that of Earth so you can be a real-life Ironman and lift heavy things while bounding around! Meanwhile, outside of fantasyland
Reception and feasibility
SpaceX has not detailed plans for the spacecraft’s life-support systems, radiation protection, and in situ resource utilization, technologies which are essential for space colonization.
Tunnels. I feel that boring will be involved. Of course there’s no sunlight in a tunnel, by why use something more sensible when you can use a tunnel instead?
He reduced space transportation costs. I mean, we can laugh about his Twitter and personal ridiculousness all we want, but Space X has absolutely lowered the cost to put shit in space. That is the stated plan, reduce cost, enable Mars. If you don’t get the reduce cost thing done there’s no point putting any effort into the Mars stuff.
To be fair, SpaceX has greatly lowered costs. I believe in the large part this is due to the reusable rocketry. For all of Musk’s faults, and they are legion, SpaceX has been a great success. How much is due to him? Probably not a lot.
I suppose it’s theoretically possible to simply vastly increase the quantity of gas in Mars’ atmosphere and gravity, even Mars’ weak gravity, will do the rest.
Now where Elmo finds umpteen gajillion kilograms of gas and a mechanism to release it at the Martian surface is left as an exercise for the reader. But I suspect that vast quantities of refried beans will be needed.
When I read numbers like these, it’s unclear to me how much of those lower cost are subsidized by burning through investor capital. We know, for example, that Starlink isn’t even profitable yet, though they claim it’s going to become profitable this year.